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Labour day preview below

Update: no further bets today. David’s bet and lay of the day at the dogs can be seen here

Good morning,

Firstly, if you enjoy a bet on the greyhounds, you can login for free to the Formpro Ratings at Palmerston North today. There are Time Ratings, a Predictor, speed maps, links to replays and much more, making it much easier to work the form out.

The Confidence Factor for each race indicates how confident I am selecting the winner. 3/5 or higher indicates a good race to bet into. 1/5 and 2/5 I’m not so confident. Of course, you will have your own ideas and opinions about the race. Hopefully, some of my comments may give you more or less confidence about the ones you like. Anyway, every race is different, and we all need as much information as possible to try and solve the puzzle and get that winner.

RP means rated price. That reflects the chance I give the horse. E.g. If I rate it $1.10, I feel it is unbeatable. At around $2 I feel only it and maybe one other can win it. $3 or more I still feel confident it can win but there are one or two others that could do it. It also helps you with your punting. If I rate a horse at $3 and the best price you can get is $2.50, then there is no value, and those are the ones that damage your long term chances of making a profit.

Today at Te Rapa, we have a decent surface and hopefully that kickback doesn’t affect off pace runners like it has been doing.

Speed maps courtesy of Formpro Ratings

I’ll post an update by 12.30 with any other bets, e.g. head to heads or quaddies etc.

Bet of the day Te Rapa Race 7 1.Madison County $2.10 Ff

Value bet of the day Race 8 8.Incantesimo $7 FF

Sneaky of the day  Race 6 8.Secret Embrace $11 FF

Other good confidence bets of 3/5 or more:

Race 3 12.Thomas Aquinas $2.30 Ff, Race 5 7.Caricature $3.00 Ff

Early quaddie for $10 for 6%

Leg 1: 1. Fancy More
2. Kamikaze Rebel
5. O’Hara
8. Easy M’Lady
Leg 2: 1. Comeback
5. Matuzalem
7. Highfalutin Gal
8. Zappeur
11. No Finer Pins
Leg 3: 12. Thomas Aquinas
Leg 4: 1. Takeitlikeaman
2. Abrahams
4. Rhinestone Cowboy
6. Chief Sequoyah
9. Pont Alma
10. Mi Sky
12. Heavenly Emperor
15. Queen Of Diamonds

Suggested late quaddie for $10 for 33%

Leg 1: 7. Caricature
Leg 2: 1. Chachi Arcola
2. Surrey
4. Lucky Dreamer
8. Secret Embrace
9. Georgethefifth
11. Korakonui
Leg 3: 1. Madison County
Leg 4: 3. Hinerangi
4. Marcellina
5. The Mitigator
8. Incantesimo
10. Sarabande

Race 1

The speed map shows Ohara and Tattyboggler looking to go forward and a moderate tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Kamikaze Rebel ran a strong second fresh up and second up over 1200m began well, trailed then got pushed back to 3 back inner. They didn’t go hard and he was blocked down the straight and was never able to get out and going. He is a strong galloper and and drawn to trail O’Hara or be in the first four. Opie jumps on and third up, over 1600m, suits ideally. He has the best speed rating over 1600m and ran third to Group 1 winner Devise and top mare Seraphim at Trentham over 1600m. So ticks a few boxes. RP $3.80, $5.50 Ff

Dangers:

5.O’Hara ran third here second up after leading in a good speed rating over 1600m. Then she raced fairly in 3yo races. In her trial before her fresh up run, she began well, eased 5th outer and had no room until very late and finished with plenty in the tank.  Fresh up she drew wide with the money on her and she began well, but snagged back right to last. They didn’t go hard and she had no chance, but was doing nice work late in the sprint home. The blinkers go on this time which will sharpen her up and she can lead and get her own way and be a good chance to hold on.

8.Easy M’Lady ran a very good race to win on debut. But the speed rating was slow and nothing has won out of it. But second up at Tauranga, right handed, she was a bit tardy away but soon hunted up to be 5 wide and used gas to get 2nd outer. She lay out on the turn and battled on ok but didn’t seem happy right handed. So back left handed, where Cameron Lammas has plumped for her over Kamizake Rebel, or Cameron got the drag off Kamikaze, I’m not sure. Maps to get handy and with more experience under her belt now, should be in this.

1.Fancy More has had her chances to win in her last two starts. Two back she ranged up but didn’t finish it off and ran second. Then last start got a good run, ran about and battled on well for third. Should land about 5th or 6th and may find one or two too hard to run down. $3.50 Ff is hard to take.

Race 2

The speed map shows four runners likely to forward and an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

7.Highfalutin Girl is very well bred and looked good winning on debut when showing good early speed to get 2nd outer and they went faster to the 600m mark than the R65 race and she ran similar over all time. Looked stronger in her recent trial when handy and wasn’t pushed to run second. Danielle Johnson stays with her and knows her well. Drawn to get a good run near the pace and be hard to keep out. RP $4.00, $6.50FF

Dangers:

1.Comeback  closed off strongly fresh up over 1200m and will be fitter. May want 1400m though but the decent tempo will help.

8.Zappeur ran on well in a bit of a sprint home last start. Better tempo will suit from a good draw.

5.Matuzalem may share an even tempo here and if the inside is playing faster, could hold on.

11.No Finer Pins very good fresh up 2nd and has ability. Draw makes it harder.

Race 3

The speed map shows no obvious leader but Thomas Aquinas can lead or trail with a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5

2.Thomas Aquinas ran a top third to Langkiwi ( 2nd) over 1300m and was a bit fresh. Lankawi has won well since. Then last start in the Hawkes Bay Guineas drew wide, jumped evenly but snagged back to last but ran home strongly late for 9th but in the third fastest last 600m of the race. He has rated 101,100 and 100 at his last three starts in the Formpro Ratings. Considering he only has to rate around 95 to win this, from the inside draw, he does have enough early speed to even hunt through and lead early and take luck out of the equation. He can settle in the trail if something takes him on and get every chance to beat these. RP $1.90, $2.30 FF

Dangers:

1.Starrybeel ran on well for 6th in a stronger field fresh up. 1600m suits now.

2.Havoc showed the ability to win a maiden last campaign Good trial win and just needs a good run to be in this.

10.Lady Sequoyah solid fourth in R65 company two starts back and ran on well late over 1200m last start. 1600m suits.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race with about eight live chances.

12.Heavenly Emperor closed off hard behind Nirvana In Fire on debut over 1100m. He definitely looked like he would appreciate more ground too. Trialed up nicely for 4th and looks set to fire up. RP $5

Dangers:

4.Rhinestone Cowboy  was a late scratching at Hastings and the money came for him before that. Big strong horse still learning but will win a race or two. Ear covers go on to keep him calm.

15.Queen Of Diamonds  strong second on debut in fast time. 1400m will suit better with blinkers going on.

9.Pont Alma has rated strongly and with a good run can be in this.

Race 5

The speed map shows Tweedle Dee and Waipipi lad likely to share the tempo and be a moderate tempo suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence:3/5

7.Caricature showed her staying potential when a strong late third to Savvy Coup at Hastings and 4th in the Oaks. Always looked like she would be better as a 4yo. Strong finishing 6th in Open company last start over 1600m. She is ready for more ground now and maps to get a nice run behind the leaders and on a decent surface, rates the best in this field after weight adjustments. RP $2.20, $3 Ff

Dangers:

6.Mental Telepathy  ran on well in an on pace race last start. Fitter now and right in this.

2.Zanyetta  fitter after two runs back and drawn to get a winning run.

8.Blackmagicwoman two close seconds last two starts and Lisa Alpress jumps on.

Race 6

The speed map shows no obvious leader but a few will go forward and see how it unravels. An even tempo is likely.

Confidence: 2/5

8.Secret Embrace is best suited to a middle distance as she showed when charging home on a Dead 4 track at Avondale over 2100m in January this year. That was after a nice run over 1600m fresh up. This campaign, she was caught 3 wide in the open off a slow speed at Te Awamutu and didn’t lose anyground on them after being widest on the turn over 1580m. She was still puuting in on the line. Up to a middle distance suits ideally and she has struck a weak R65 field. Danielle Johnson knows her well and with an even tempo likely, she can get over these. RP $5, $10 Ff

Dangers:

1.Chachi Arcola just beaten in Open company last start. So the drop back to R65 with 3kgs off looks ideal.

2.Surrey is certainly bred to be better over middle distances and further. Fitter now and should get a good run.

4.Lucky Dreamer had its chance on Saturday and battled. This is easier.

Race 7

The speed map shows Sword Of Osman looking to lead but will have to work with a few with early pace in side him. An even tempo is likely.

Confidence: 4/5

1.Madison County was a dominant winner at hastings against a stronger field in a time that equalled the very smart Te Akau Shark’s. His other times have also been around better class times. The 1400m is ideal for him third up where he maps to settle handier behind an even tempo. At set weights, the $2.80 favourite to win the 2000 Guineas is likely to shorten even further after he wins this. RP $1.50, $2.00 FF

Dangers:

3.Bit Lippy won well fresh up and is best suited when he can get cover and use his strength to come at them. His speed ratings have not been anywhere as good as Madison County’s, so he has to prove himself running a good time. Maps to get a good run and looks the main danger over 1400m.

11.Rip Em Up has run two strong finishing seconds. Does things wrong and Blinkers go on which may or may not help. Will probably settle last and need a solid tempo to beat home the above two and unlikely to get that.

5.Qiji Express had the blinkers go on last start and drove hard to win well. Beaten by a solid tempo fresh up. Drawn to get a good trip and be a place chance.

Race 8

The speed map shows The Mitigator likely to lead with Hinerangi and Incantesimo likely to slide forward. A moderate tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 2/5

8.Incantesimo won strongly at Ellerslie over 1600m beating The Mitigator in good time. After a spell he drew wide at hastings, jumped on the pace but snagged back. They didn’t go hard up front and he was the only one who made significant ground for third. Drawn out again, but has the early speed to slide over 2nd outer, probably outside The Mitigator, and from there, can get a break on them on the turn and be hard to run down. RP $4.80, $7 FF

Dangers:

4.Marcellina showed with some of her closing sectionals that she would win a few races. She won her first easily fresh up. Second up here and may be wanting 2000m or more, so a query over her at $3.30 FF

3.Hinerangi will be on the pace and will be improved by that fresh up fourth.

5.The Mitigator if left alone again, could prove hard to run down, especially if the inside is hot.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!