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Saturday October 27 preview below

Update: No further bets

Good morning,

Isn’t great to have racing back at Ellerslie! I’ve found three very good bets there and a couple elsewhere. I’ll post an update by noon with any head to head bets etc.

Bet of the day Ellerslie Race 5 3.Demonetization $2.40 FF ( Likely to be bet of the day even if rain comes ) Missed- didn’t hit out on the firm track and the head on showed that he may be feeling something.

Value bet of the day Ellerslie Race 6 11.Queen Of The Air $4.80 FF Worth having some on the $10 for the One Thousand Guineas before this too. Over raced early and fainted 200m out. Rider said she’s a 1200m filly.

Speed map Special Randwick Race 4 5.Just Dreaming $2.20 FF missed after getting every chance.

Sneaky of the day Riccarton Race 6 8.Casual Winks $8.50 and $2.70 caught wide all the way 

Other good bets: Ellerslie Race 3 7.Aniceta $3.90 FF had her chance but just battled- may have been feeling the track as well.

Money Shot’s best sports bet is Australia +17.5 points $1.87  Saturday night 7.05 p.m. Yes and bolted in by half a point!

Suggested quaddie at Ellerslie for $10 for 7%

Leg 1: 3. Demonetization
Leg 2: 11. Queen Of The Air
Leg 3: 2. Watch This Space
3. Ronchi
4. Sultan Of Swing
5. All Roads
7. Tiptronic
10. Calligraphy
11. Yearn
12. Somethingvain
13. Caprikosa
Leg 4: 1. Delegate
2. Surrey
3. Model Aye
4. Prince Jabeel
5. Redcayenne
7. Aongatete Express
8. He’s No Saint
9. Prior Engagement
10. Seconds Out
11. Vainglory
12. Pearlescence
13. Unveiling
14. Baboonski
16. Rodmar

Randwick

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

5.Just Dreaming has been very good to us. She is best second up and that is how she races today after a good run fresh up for third when no peace up front. Maps to get an ideal run just off Fabrizio on a moderate tempo.  A soft track is ideal and she is weighted to get past Fabrizio near the rise down the straight and she fights like a tiger, so looks a very strong chance of holding these out. RP $1.90, $2.20 Ff

Riccarton

Race 6

The speed map shows Mohaka, Fire Show, Sabrage and The Chosen one going forward. The tempo is likely to be even suiting all runners.

Confidence: 3/5 with Casual Winks being a very good eachway bet.

8.Casual Winks bolted in at Ruakaka last start over 1600m coming from last. The speed rating was superior to the R72 race won by Terrifique and nothing broke 36 seconds in that race Her last 600m of 35.17 showed she is going to win more races. The R72 race went out in slightly slower average 200m yet none could break 36 seconds coming home. She maps to get back again and with the even tempo likely, she should get her chance to track into it and win.a Dead track ok. RP $4, $8.50 FF and $2.70 Ff

Dangers:

3.The Chosen One 1st $3  won very strongly at Waverley but beat a weak field. He does look a very good galloper and has the breeding to back it up. Matt Cameron knows him better now and he can slide up 2nd outer and from there, be right in this.

1.Fire Show did very well with a slipped saddle two starts back here beating Emily Margaret.  Good 3rd behind the 1000 Guineas favourite at ashburton last start and  very fit.

6.Emily Margaret ran on late over 1400m last start so 1600m will suit. Drawn to do extra work though.

 

Ellerslie

Race 1

The speed map shows Final Suggestion leading without too much trouble with a few on the inside of him looking to get in behind him. A moderate tempo is likely suiting on pace runners.

Confidence: 2/5

9.Joe’s Legacy ran a  strong second fresh up at Hastings over 1400m. Then second up got back off an on-pace race and ran a close second. Then third up, when he was looking for more ground, settled 6th outer with the tempo favouring the leader, The Mitigator, but kept up a long stride rate to be second late and was just pipped for that placing. So he finally gets to a middle distance now and from the draw, he maps to slide forward with Final Suggestion and Bluetwentytwo and then slot in one off getting a good run about 4th or 5th. From there, with the moderate tempo likely, he can get over these with the weight advantage. Ran a  good race in the Derby here finishing well. RP $4.50, $5.20 FF

Dangers:

2.Final Suggestion dug deep to win last start at Avondale in this class. He maps to lead and he is very fit, so Sam Spratt will be keen to keep it and back off midrace to negate the bigger weight. He is likely to kick on the turn and prove very hard to run down in an on pace race.

4.Felaar got home strongly last start in 33.69 for his last 600m. Fitter now and gets up to a distance he needs. Drawn out and will very likely snag and get back last. With not a lot of speed up front, he will need to go wide and get going early to get over the leaders. If there was the chance of a decent tempo, he would be clearly on top, but because there isn’t, he is a risk especially at $2.80 FF was the lay of the day and did get back off a the slow tempo and battled home.

5.No Loitering 1st $24.90  should get a good trip near the moderate tempo and with the 3kgs off, can hold on for a place.

7.Vittachi  good third last start and with Opie on from the good draw, can place. 3rd $2.50 

Race 2

A good race to watch with plenty of trials form but very hard to line them up. For quaddies in order: 4-3-6-7

Race 3

The speed map shows Below Zero and She’s Prismatic going forward early with a few kicking up on the inside of them to get handy. An even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 3/5

7.Aniceta is a very good mare who lets set to win now. Last campaign she sweated up on occasions and was a bit keen, but still did well. Fresh up she would have won but was held up till too late and flashed home for fourth. Winner, Icebomb won well next up in R72 company. She maps to settle midfield and with Opie up, should be able to get balanced up and bury these. RP $3.00, $3.90 FF

Dangers:

3.Ricky Baker maps to get all favours and is the one to run down after two solid seconds.

6.Sistabeel  had here chance last start when second. Will be fitter now though third up.

9.Pink Graffiti fitter now and good run last start.

Race 4

The speed map shows Hatton Garden and Swisswatch likely to slide to the lead.

Confidence: 2/5

6.Save The Date 1st $4.90  has run two strong races. The last at WFA against a stronger field. She maps to get a good run either trailing or 3 back inner and from there, with an even tempo, back in class and fitter third up, looks well placed to win. RP $4.70, $7.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Beauty Way 2nd $3.20  is racing well in better fields. Drops in class but up in weight. Fitter and drawn to be right in this.

2.Swisswatch got all his own way in front last start and won well. Drawn out and will have to work to lead or get 2nd outer. Gets 4kgs off but inexperienced rider around here makes you a bit nervous.

15.Voler Pour Moi with the light weight will be charging home late.

Race 5

The speed map shows Midnight Runner and Ticket to Ride going forward with three runners looking to get in behind them near the inside. A moderate to even tempo likely suiting runners in the first half.

Confidence: 4/5

3.Demonetization did very well to run second second up in a harder field when 6th 3w opn behind a moderate tempo and almost got up. The winner got all favours. So back in class from a good draw, he should land in the first 6 and from there, just needs to work intro the clear near the turn and he should win. RP $1.90, $2.40 FF

Dangers:

8.Sherrif is likely to get back and rely on a strong tempo which is unlikely. Meets the favourite better off in the weights tho8ugh and looks the main danger.

2.Andoyas won well last start. Probably settles behind the favourite and hard to see him running him down.

9.August Edition 2nd $4.30  with a good run could sneak into a place with the 4kgs off.

Race 6

The speed map shows Queen Of the Air and Nulli Secundus likely to share the pace and a moderate tempo likely suiting on pace runners.

Confidence: 4/5 with Queen Of Air a very good bet at $4.80 Ff

11.Queen Of Air  was very impressive leading all the way at Waverley winning  in fast time, 1.09.65 which was by far the best speed rating all day, winning by 4 lengths. She is a very strong filly and maps to sit 2nd outer or slide to the lead if allowed. Opie Bosson I’m sure will put her in the right spot by the turn anyway. From there, she looks very well placed to kick on these and 1400m will suit and be very hard to run down. RP $2.40, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

1.Media Sensation 1st $2.50 did very well ridden quieter last week and they didn’t go hard, so to get up and win was a good effort. This is harder but she can settle in the trail or 3 back inner, and is the one Queen has to hold out.

2.London Express is a  good horse but may get back behind midfield and with the moderate tempo and first time right handed here, $4 is too short.

6.Annie Okay 3rd $3  won well on debut in a good speed rating, and drawn to get a good run.

Race 7

The speed map shows Ugo Fuscolo, Somethingvain,Tiptronic and maybe Meeska Mooska out wide sliding forward. So an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

11.Yearn 1st $6.50  did very well fresh up running a strong 2nd over 1200m. Stepped to 1400m at WFA second up and was caught 8th 3w cover off a moderate tempo and held her ground for a 3.4L 8th. Back to a handicap where there looks to be a decent tempo, suits better. Fitter now and any moisture won’t harm.

Dangers:

7.Tiptronic good run fresh up and flat second up. Maps to get a good run and fitter now.

3.Ronchi if he can jump ok is a chance. Ran 2nd in this last year and ran 2nd in the Rich Hill Mile. Fitter now.

5.All Roads 3rd $3  is a quick improver and drawn to get a good run.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

5.Redcayenne 2nd $1.70  with a few jumps over hurdles seemed to waken him up last start after leading all the way. Will slide forward again from the wide draw and be in the right place.

Dangers:

4.Prince Jabeel 1st $5 qu $10 tri $200 will relish the 2400m but the wide draw makes it tougher.

12.Pearlescence gets 3kgs off and has been racing like 2400m suits now.

11.Vainglory 3rd $3.90 maps to do nothing and come with the last go at them.

Trentham

 

Race 1

Is very even and best watched. In order: 4-5 1st $6 -1-3

Race 2

Another very even race. 1.King Cougar gets 4kgs off any rain before start time will help. For quaddies: 3.Gift Of Power and 8.Paddy Bourke  can upset fresh up

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

1.Bee Tee Junior will relish the 2400m and 3kgs off from a good draw is ideal. Beaten by the slow tempo last start.

Dangers:

2-111st $6.30 -4

Race 4

Another tricky race.

In order: 5-8-6-7

Race 5

In order: 11-13-10-3

Race 6

An open leg for the first leg of the quaddie.

Go wide and include 2  1st $4.60 -3-16-1-19

Race 7

7.Bring To The Block 1st $7.60  is ready to win and just needs a decent tempo to get over these. RP $5

Dangers:

In order: 9-12-4

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5 with a lack of tempo it should suit runners in the first half.

1.Dolcetto 2nd $2.70  good run last start and any rain will only help. Should land close enough to win. RP $6, $5.80 FF

Dangers:

9 1st $5 -3-4 1st $4.30 

Race 9

Another raffle race!

In order for quaddies: 7-4 2nd $2.60 -12-9 1st $4.30 quaddie $643 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!