Review of race: $70 win at $2.90 FF on Waruna returned $203 for a profit of $103 after a $30 saver on 2nd horse Nicochet.
The speed map went pear shaped after Waruna jumped first but James had no interest in leading and looked to get in one off but got stuck 4th 3w open. But she is a better chaser than on-pacer so he knew what he was doing. She showed that determination to win again and won well in the end from Nicochet who ran on well for second for a $4.20 quinella.
My self evaluation is 9/10 as the speed map was off. Beats trying to win the raffle races at Te Awamutu anyway. No bets for Thursday. I’ve been working on Friday and Saturday’s form today, so hopefully I can find another few races to bet into. Remember to get your betting bank in order and if you haven’t got one, start building one up. I mentioned I’d preview at least 10 races for the week. I may have to renege on that as I don’t want to be forced into suggesting bets because of a quota. Thanks for the constructive feedback too.
Update: The track is playing evenly as they are winning from the front and off the pace. The market movers have been Waruna after opening 2nd favourite at $3.40 behind Gretsky, into $2.90 FF. 2.Nicochet has also closed in. But he is in danger of getting back off the moderate tempo. If they do go even, he is the one Waruna has to hold out and it is only a seven horse field.
Waruna looks ready.
Recommended bets with around $100. $70 win 6.Waruna at $2.90. $30 win 2.Nicochet at $3.80 FF
Sydney Wednesday October 31.
Race 4 5.50 p.m. Updated at 5.48 p.m.
Early betting strategy. Waruna is the value here so using the Value Staking Plan we will have 2.6 units at the current $2.80 FF on her. ( 2.8/2.2 = 1.3 ) 2 units are bet on horses rates between $2.05 and $3.50 and the value factor is $2.80/ 2.20 = 1.3. So 2 units x 1.3 = 2.6 units ( Updated 2 minutes before the race )
The speed map shows Gretzky from the inside likely to lead, with Waruna sliding over and may take a sit behind Sausalito if it wants to get 2nd outer. A Moderate tempo likely suiting on pace runners
6.Waruna 1st $2.50 tote two starts back second up was handy early then got shuffled back to 3 back inner, got out on the turn an once balanced up, galloped away stylishly to win in the best speed rating all day over 1400m with three horses winning out of it. Then next up at Warwick Farm, led early on the heavy track, was under pressure 4th on the turn and looked gone in the ground, but picked up again along the rail to come back strongly for third. She has a dry track action and gets that here. Her three wins have come on Good tracks. Drawn wide but maps to slide over comfortably outside Grensky. A moderate tempo is likely suiting the first two, and with Gretsky having had plenty of chances, she does look well placed to get the lead after turning in and being too strong for these with James McDonald up. RP $2.20, $2.80 FF
Dangers in order with rated price to around 100%
5.Gretzky had every chance last start and battled ok for second. He has had 12 starts for 1 win and has found his mark and doesn’t seem to have that will to win. Positive is he maps to get a softish lead so can place. RP $4.50 Opened the favourite but has been easing.
2.Nicochet 2nd has run two nice 4ths after a spell but is likely to settle last off the moderate tempo and it is hard to see him running down Waruna giving her weight as well. RP $6.50
4.Sausalito has won over 1100, 1200 and 1300m. Just battled in his two starts up to this distance. RP $12
3.Schedule won well two starts back against a weaker field. No dash last start. Maps to settle 3 back inner and can get out and get into a place from there with the moderate tempo likely. RP $14
1.Tahsin 3rd drops in class after two poor runs. Trialed ok but hard to see beating some of these home giving them weight. RP $20
8.Fastquest upset last start on a heavy track. Up in class and should find three or four too classy on a good track and doesn’t win too often. RP $90