Review of Oberland selection 9/10 He got the run predicted and was a dominant winner
Review of Land Of Plenty selection 4/10 I didn’t factor in that he would be so far back in the 16 horse field. The rider said he got flushed wide and was forced to put in a big run and the run was massive. But they don’t pay out on massive!
Update: 6.29 p.m. Land Of Plenty is very relaxed and Jayne Ivil on Racing.com said he looks even better than when he won the Toorak. His dapples are out and he is ready. The negaive is he is a back runner, but the decent tempo should allow Damian lane to get him out in time to power over them. $50w $4.20 FF and $50 win tote. Might pay to cross your fingers and anything else you can so he can out in time! 4th after getting out in time. He had his head to the side when asked to go, which he hasn’t done before, so may have been feeling the good track. Still we almost doubled our money for the week so far with two wins from three bets. There may be one tomorrow which I will post by 9 a.m. tomorrow.
Update 5.14 p.m.
Oberland has been steady in the market. They have been winning off the front but they haven’t gone hard and they were the better horses there anyway. There should be enough tempo here for him to get out and wind up and get over these. He looks relaxed so $100 win tote. Got the run to suit and had to win- won easily $2.50 $150 net profit
Update: I’ve updated the Flemington quaddie with a suggested bet. No further recommended bets. So the two races I’ll be updating 2 minutes before the race are Oberland’s at 5.14 p.m. and Land Of Plenty’s at 6.33 p.m.
I’ve spent many hours going through races here and in Australia and have found two that we can bet into confidently. I’ll be updating both races and any others that I find 2 minutes before the race. There will be an update by noon with any other bets and an update on the big Flemington quaddie preview and suggested bet. There may well be one or two more races in Australia for us to bet into but it depends on scratchings etc.
Bet of the day Morphettville Race 4 8.Oberland $2.80 FF
Value bet of the day Flemington Race 8 4.Land Of Plenty $4.80 Ff
Sneaky of the Day, Flemington Race 7 4.Stars Of Carrum $7.50 Ff
The Money Shot’s best sports bet is Japan with a 16.5 point start at $1.87 for the first half against the ABs on Saturday night.
With the new Quality over Quantity approach, it has allowed me to fully analyse the right races. I’ve also previewed two races from New Zealand as they are the main races in New Zealand tomorrow.
Tauranga have even fields and there are no races there that I could confidently recommend to bet into. And at Awapuni, we have the same horses that have been getting dizzy going around for the last few months so I have bypassed there as well.
The Melbourne Quaddie is going to be huge on Saturday so I’ll be previewing that.
It should reach at least 1.5 million.
With Thinkin Big being the shortest favourite in the second leg of the quaddie, and being beatable, it is going to be a big dividend. I’ll preview each leg and post a suggested quaddie by noon tomorrow after scratchings and track conditions are known.
Suggested quaddie for $21.60 for 5%
|Leg 1:||1. I Am a Star
|Leg 2:||1. Thinkin’ Big
3. Extra Brut
4. Stars Of Carrum
6. Mickey Blue Eyes
14. Savvy Oak
|Leg 3:||4. Land of Plenty|
|Leg 4:||1. Booker
2. Snitty Kitty
4. I Am Excited
7. From Within
9. She Knows
Race 6 leg 1
5.Aloisia closed off in fast sectionals last start and is is peaking perfectly for this. Drawn wide though so needs luck.
15.Amphitrite knows how to win and weighted and drawn to win again. Step up though.
3.Shillelagh has been racing well in strong fields against the boys. Has to be in.
2.Invincibella goes well here and very tough.
1.I Am A Star if gets a softish time up front could hold on. Won 4 from 8 here.
4.Stars Of Carrum won really well last start. Races and like a stayer and bred to see it right out.
2.Aramayo big run out wide last start. With a good run can win.
1.Thinkin Big won’t get his own terms in front you would think and can get rolled by a true stayer.
4.Land Of Plenty got the race run to suit last start and won easily. Should get at least the same tempo and he is so powerful over the last 200 metres, he will take a power of beating.
8.Noire charged home behind Land Of Plenty after getting clear late.
1.Hartnell ran second to Land of Plenty last start and meets him better off in the weights. But will be vulnerable if near the solid pace with top weight.
An open leg.
6.Resin is going to win more races and drawn ideally.
2.Snitty Kitty could be suited by the wide draw if the going down the chute suits them out there.
1.I Am Excited will be charging late and has got a good strike rate.
7.From Within has been training like a winner and is in great form.
9.She Knows tough and if inside is ok, can drive hard and win.
17.Petrille excellent speed ratings this campaign. Can step up.
The speed map shows plenty of early speed from six runners with five runners looking to get in behind those, so a fast early pace and fast from there suiting off pace runners.
4.Land Of Plenty has been putting in huge runs all this campaign. He got everything go his way last start when he snagged back from the wide draw and they went hard enough up front averaging 11.86 second per 200m to the 600m mark. Then he ran the best closing sectionals of the race from all distances over the race! That doesn’t happen very often. Cliffs Edge, who ran fifth in that, won well next up. Plus he was going better than anything else on the turn and Lane only gave him a couple to keep him on the job after he led. He only goes to 55kgs so that is not an issue. The big plus is the amount of speed in the race. It is going to almost certainly be run at a strong clip and Damian lane, who knows exactly what gears he has under him, just needs to get onto the right horse’s backside to get a track into it. From there, he has a massive last 200 metres off a strong tempo, so is going to be very hard to keep out. The negative is the big field but Lane will be looking to just let him relax early knowing what motor he has to work with. Any rain ok- has won twice on soft tracksRP $2.80, $4.50 FF
1.Hartnell tried hard for second to him and meets him 2.5kgs better off but that shouldn’t be enough to turn the tables with the way the race is going to be run. RP $7
8.Noire was held up in the same race and found the line well late. Will get back and should be getting home strongly. RP $8.50
11.Cliff’s Edge was well beaten by Land Of Plenty two back and got a softer time last start and won well. Will need a good run near the pace to have any chance of turning the tables.
The rest have place chances as most will be going forward which will set it up for the closers.
Race 4 5.16 p.m.
The speed map shows Cool Maverick and Counter Pulse should share an even tempo and a moderate to even tempo likely, suiting the first 5 runners.
Confidence: 3/5 Oberland has found the right race from the Darren Weir stable to win now.
8.Oberland ran a very good second at Caulfield to Bryan after drawing wide and getting well back but closed off hard late to almost win in a good speed rating over 1200m. Ran on late next up. Then came here for a win back in class, drew out, jumped well but snagged back. He was held up till about 150m out but hit the line the best of anything with vigour in the fastest last 200m. This time, he finally gets a decent draw and can settle closer about 4th or 5th. From there, down in weight, he just needs the gaps, which he should get, to power over these in the last 100 metres. RP $2.20, $2.90 FF
Dangers In order:
2.So You Too got all favours when winning two back and lay in and got his head to the side when doing it in an average speed rating. Raced flat according to the rider next up. So freshened up and ran a fair trial for 3rd recently. RP 4.80
9.Cool Maverick has been racing well and is likely to look to lead and he sets an even tempo with niggle from a couple of others, giving them all chances to win. Had plenty of goes and is in solid form. Place chance. RP $6
3.Tatoosh has been racing well over 1400m to 1600m. has won here over 1200m in good time after successfully protesting. Drawn 6 and likely to snag back and rely on a good tempo. May just need this with longer races in mind like he did for 4th here three starts back fresh up. RP $8
7.Machinegun Jubs just battled home along the fence after getting every chance. Hard to see improving enough to beat a couple of these. RP $10
4.Counter Pulse drawn wide but likely to go forward and put some pressure into it. RP $30
The speed map shows Rich Billie Marsh setting at least an even pace, but could easily be fast suiting runners off the pace. Sleeping Beauty, Iwanadancelikehim and Resurrect will look to get in behind Billie.
6.Your Way has had plenty of trials to be fit enough to be in this. She has won races over 1200m at Randwick over 1200m on Good and heavy tracks and has won twice fresh up. Drawn out but she can snag and get a track into it and be right in this.
4.Embellish won well fresh up last year over 1200m beating a strong 3yo field. Won the 2000 Guineas and was just beaten by Scott base in fast time at Ellerslie off a hot pace when fit. Fresh up here off a nice trial win leading all the way. But there is going to be at least an even pace, probably faster, suiting runners getting a good trip off the pace with race fitness.
5.Sleeping Beauty had a n easy lead and a soft win fresh up. She will relish a slow track more than most here. She won easily here in June and ran 2nd to New York Minute over 1400m on a heavy track. Gets in with 52.5kgs so looks well placed with that win under her belt and getting the right run with the right weight.
10.Rich Billie Marsh with the light weight and if the inside is still ok, could hold on for a place.
Feilding at Awapuni
The early speed should come from China Star who may lead, Sampson and Balham, with Highlad just in behind. A moderate tempo likely.
2.Highlad last start got a good run fifth outer and kept gradually taking ground off the first two who had better runs and less weight. Fifth horse He’s Cavalier was fifth in that and won well at Te Awamutu on Wednesday. That was on a good track and with a Dead to slow track likely, which will suit better, he looks well placed from the good draw, to get a good run near a moderate tempo and is peaking fourth up, so looks ready to win from the Baker/Forsman stable. RP $3.70
3.Nymph Monte won well off a strong tempo last start. Very fit and with a good run, should be fighting this one out.
1.Five To Midnight has had a 31 day break since his good run in the Livamol and his last three wins have come off 21 day breaks or shorter. So with 60kgs, is more of a place chance than a serious win chance.
10.Balham ran home well at Trentham and is fitter now. Drawn to get a good run with a light weight and be a place chance.
The likely Sneaky of the day is Flemington Race 7, The Derby. 4.Stars Of Carrum just won at Moonee Valley last week but he was travelling better than anything with 400m to go. he has a beuatiful staying action and his sire Fiorente, won a melbourne Cup when we were on him. You need a true stayer to win this race and we know he will see it out strongly and is drawn to settle back and do nothing off an even tempo. $8.50 and $2.80 and is a nice eachway bet.