Home » Selections » Cup day preview below

Cup day preview below

Update: No further bets recommended.

I’ve tried hard to find some Quality bets for Tuesday but couldn’t find one. So with such a big day of racing in New Zealand I have previewed each race there with my thoughts. I’m tempted to make Yucatan in the Melbourne Cup a Quality bet but with  such a big field with some unknown runners and luck needed in the running, I’ve chickened out,but he is still a solid eachway chance and will probably pay around $6 on the tote. His action says a soft track will be no trouble.

Bet of the day has to be 7.Lizzie L’Amour in race 6 at $1.60

Value bet of the day is Race 7 13.Excelleration $6.50

Best eachway bet all day. Melbourne race 7 11.Yucatan

Best double figure bet is Ellerslie Race 1 9.Takeitlikeaman $11.50 and $3.60

Melbourne Cup

I’ve had a few requests for the Melbourne Cup selection but have been waiting for the draw to come out. Now that it has Yucatan needed to draw wide so he could work his way forward unimpeded. He has 23 which is ideal with that long run to the first turn.

11.Yucatan

You couldn’t have a better lead in win by this fella. He drew wide at Caulfield, eased over and got back, improved wide midrace and led 500m out and bolted in easing down. The time was very fast, 2.26.47 and he could have run a few lengths quicker. The second and third horses closed late. Prince of Arran and Brimhan Rocks, who ran 1,2 in the Lexus on Saturday. So not only has he run great time easing down, but it has been well and truly franked. James McDonald,  who has run 2nd and 3rd in previous cups, will sum it up as he goes along knowing what he has under him, so he just needs to give him a nice run, even 3 wide with cover, and he will be very hard to beat. RP $3.50, $4.60 Ff

Dangers:

3.Magic Circle is a very good stayer with a great turn of foot. With a good run is the main threat to Yucatan. The birdcage presentation will be worth seeing if it wins! The owner has threatened, if he wins, to dance around in a G-string with a tie and socks to enhance the look.

22.Youngstar ran on well in the Caulfield Cup after making Winx work for her in in the Turnbull. Trained by Chris Waller.

Ellerslie

Race 1

9.Takitlikeaman ran home in strong sectionals last start and from the inside draw will get a good run. At $11.50 he is the value runner.

A very open race with Thomas Aquinas the $3.10 favourite but he has his chance last start and this is a harder field, so is no value. For Trifectas put in 1-10 and 14 and box the five runners up.

Race 2

Another with four or five chances

2.Howboutdat ran a close second here last year and with the good pace will be the one to hold out. 8.Bevan Street  is up in class but drawn to get a winning run. Fitter now too. 3.Mighty Me should get a good run and be a place chance. 9.Princess Keruru  won well off a good speed last start. May get back and that makes the $3 hard to take. 5.Akoya  has been set for this and drawn ideally.

Race 3

It is not getting any easier.

14.Autumn Wild won really well last start and drawn to get all favours. Fitter now too. 3.Highfalutin Gal got out late and found the line well last start. Drawn ideally with Danielle Johnson up. 10.Spindle with the last run at them is ready to fire fresh. 4.Fullinbloom  with a soft lead can hold on.

Race 4

11.Caricature needed that last run and did a bit of extra work. Weighted to win as she is a smart mare. 3.Zanyetta was a bit stiff last start. Maps to get an ideal run and with better luck can win. 2.Diesel  fought well for second here last start. Maps to get an ideal run again.

Race 5

8.Rhinestone Cowboy is going to win more races when he learns a bit more. But he could still pick this one up with a good ride. 19.Starrybeel  closed off in good sectionals last start to win. Suited to the likely good tempo and right in this.13.Fiscal Fantasy was held up at the wrong time fresh up. Natural improver. 4.De Konig is fitter and ready to run a strong race.

Race 6

7.Lizzi Lamour ran a strong second in the Livamol which is great form for this. Fitter and should get a winning run and be too good. 8.Hello It’s Me drawn to get a good run and fitter now. 2.Authentic Paddy likely to be second outer on a soft tempo and be the one to beat. 1.Saint Emilion could get a soft lead and steal it.

Race 7

13.Excelleration drops back from a stronger race and gets in on a winning weight. Not a big mare and Samantha Collett will give her every chance. Strong eachway chance

11.Save The Date won well last start off a hot tempo. Very fit and nicely placed. 6.Beauty Way strong second last start. Fitter now and drawn ideally. 3.Camino Rocoso  is set to fire fresh up and goes best here.

Race 8

6.Mongolian Marshal was beaten by a strong tempo last start. Freshened up and drfawn to get a winning run with a winning weight and rider.

9.Donna Anne Billy with a soft lead likely, is the one MM has to run down. 2.All Roads ready to peak third up after a  strong third. 4.Our King Sway with 3kgs off gets in on a good weight.

Race 9

7.Rip Em Up drops back from stronger fields. Fitter and has leaned a bit more. Good tempo will suit. 4.Swords Drawn two Black book runs and good draw with Lisa Allpress up. 11.Quuen Of Diamonds good second on debut and will have been set for this. 8.Standing Ovation closed hard late last start and fitter now. 9.Socialights  is a nice filly and with a good ride can win. Include in quaddies.

Race 10

6.Amazing Az unwound well at Hastings. Back right handed will suit as will 2400m. 10.Redcayenne did extra work last start here and just went down. Drawn to do less work. 4.Prince Jabeel won well and 2400m suits. 2.Wooden Edge with 3kgs off comes into it with a good ride from the wide draw.

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!