No selections at Southland today but there will very likely be at least one Quality bet for Australia in the late meeting in Sydney. I’ll post that by 3 p.m. after scratchings etc are known. Update: One Quality bet at Sydney here and one for Saturday here where the trainer has told us he is very confident.
I’ll be spending most of today going through Friday’s and Saturday’s fields, here and in Australia to find the best placed runners at the right prices. I’ve mentioned it before, but most races strongly favour the bookies. To start with, they get a decent percentage advantage on all runners, then with many unknown factors of some races like how does a horse handle the wet ground, or how much improvement has it taken out of its first or second up run, or has it had enough etc, it means there are many realistic chances giving the bookies even more of an edge. My job is to find the races where there are just one or two realistic chances at backable prices.
Earlier this year I had the ‘Updated Good Confidence’ bets which made a 99 unit profit in the first 15 weeks of this year, with a profit in 12 of those weeks. But I decided to stop those because of the wet tracks that had just started to become more consistent. Now I’ve just shortened the name to Quality bets but they are basically the same selections and updated as well for those who can get access to the site just before the race. There are certainly no guarantees in life, especially with betting on horses, but at least you know I am putting in the hours to ensure that I am avoiding the races where we could lose and concentrating on races where I feel we have a good chance of making money. I’m looking for horses that firstly I know have the ability to win not just well, but decisively, then to find out if they are mapped to get the run to prove it can win like that.
Isaurian was the perfect example of that on Saturday at Rosehill. He had shown fresh up, with the time and sectionals he ran, and the way he did it, that he was better than his rating and the others. His most recent run was wide and he needed it. He mapped to trail or be three back and rider Brenton Avdulla, said after the race that he is a horse that has quality when you jump on him and he decided to go back 3 on the fence to keep him comfortable, even though he could have trailed. The speed was good and he was simply a class above them. If I can just find one of those a week, I’m happy!
But of course, that would be a bit boring, so I’ll do my best to find a few more, but never be surprised if I don’t suggest any quality bets for the week. I’ll still preview other races when time allows, especially the quaddies legs, but the feedback so far has been very positive with comments such as, “Thanks and love your work and the changes you have made lately!” And from Bruce T, “I like your quality picks. Less time and fewer choices keeps things simple and we all have been doing ok. I realize you put a lot of time into your picks so appreciate the few you choose have been given great attention. Keep them going.” ( If you doubt the authenticity of those emails, I’ll forward them on to you with their permission)
So far the Quality bets, which have been going for three weeks, stand at 10 bets for 5 winners and a 6.9 unit profit on a 1 unit bet on opening prices. Plus I know many are attacking the quinellas, trifectas, and First Fours which can also throw up some value returns.
If you feel strongly one way or the other about what I’m doing, please let me know at firstname.lastname@example.org
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