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Saturday 26 January preview below

 

Update: No quality bets today

Paul E from the Heads Up win two weeks ago has a $20 multi with Burgundy Belle and Volpe Veloce to return $276. Good luck.

Suggested late quaddie for $10 for 41%

R3    2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 14
R4    2
R5    1
R6    1, 4, 5, 17

Suggested early quaddie: $10 for 13%

R1     1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 9
R2     1, 8
R3     2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 14
R4     2

Pick 6 suggested bet for $14.40 for 5%

R1    12, 4, 5, 7, 9
R2     1, 8
R3      2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 14
R4     2
R5    1
R6    1, 4, 5, 17

Colin V won last week’s Heads Up multi and has selected the three below for his free $20 multi to return $502.32

Princess Kereru @ 6.50 FF w
Whiskey Neat @ 1.38 FF place 
Volpe Veloce @ 2.80 FF win

Ellerslie ( The scratching won’t be updated till 12.30 but I doubt if there will be many. )

They were irrigating Friday night as it got back to a Good 3. I’ll update again about 2 p.m. with suggested quaddies and Pick 6s etc too.

Bet of the day Race 5 1.Volpe Veloce $2.70 FF 1st $2.20

Value bet of the day Race 1 4.Gundown $5.50 FF

Sneaky of the day Race 2 8.Burgundy Belle $6.50 FF

Speed map Special Race 4 2.Whiskey Neat $2.70 FF

Race 1

The speed map shows Bully Boy likely to lead but Redcayenne, after his front running win last week, may try similar tactics. A moderate tempo likely for the first half and it would not surprise to see something whip round to lead if it is too slow. Likely to favour the first 4 runners.

Confidence:2/5 in a small but open race.

4.Gundown  last start ran a career best FR of 112 here when he got well back and kept up a sustained finish to almost get up changing legs  100m out looking very good. He’s on 53kgs here which is an advantage over his main rivals and drawn to land closer than last time. And the small field will suit. Andrew Forsman is confident of a very good run. Right at his peak now and looks hard to beat. RP $4.00, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Mongolian Marshal 2nd $1.20 has been racing strongly in good fields. Just didn’t finish it off last start after looking to be going well on the turn last start. Drawn to slot in behind the leaders with James on. Negative is he has had some hard racing and his last run was below his previous win at Te Rapa. C0-trainer Andrew Forsman said he was concerned about that below level run last start and maybe he is feeling the firm ground. RP $4.50, $2.80 FF

1.Five To Midnight 1st $6.60  has the best FR ( Formpro Rating ) in the last 12 months. Drawn to get a good run as along as he jumps better than last start, and is a realistic chance despite the 60kgs.

7.The Good Fight  closed off hard in the Dunstan Feeds Final here last start after getting well back. Likely to get back again and the tempo will be against as well as his first go at Open class. The plus is he gets in on a light weight. RP $6, $5.50 FF

9.Sacred Day is facing his biggest test to date. He got back last start and motored home late full of running. He will definitely relish the 2200m now and is a very promising stayer. Will get back also which won’t help but if they put enough tempo into it, it would not surprise to see him win. RP $7, $7.50 FF

5.Bully Boy maps to get an uncontested lead. Won well here last start rating 110, which was a career best. Gets 3kgs off again and that puts him equal on top with Gundown after weight adjustments. So if they leave him alone, he could pinch it. RP $9, $11 and $2.90 place

Race 2

The speed map shows most runners have the early speed to lead or be close to it. How they begin will determine who leads.

Confidence: 2/5

8.Burgundy Belle  could be the closer to get over these late. She has shown that X factor with her finishing bursts in two wins and has an action to say she is going to win many races and a Good track will be ideal. Drawn to settle midfield or worse on the fence, but with the good chance of a strong tempo, she looks the likely one to bury these late. RP $4.50, $7 FF into $6.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Sword Of Osman 2nd = $1.20 last start here began evenly, was a bit keen outside the leader in a soft 36.56 first 600m and had to win when they came home off the front in around 33.5 seconds. He rated an FR of 106 then and rated 1 higher when winning the Gr 1 Systema here last year beating Avantage. The negative is most of the field is going to be looking to be on the pace including him, and he was found wanting when taken on in the Hawkes Bay Guineas over 1400m when taken on and it will set up for a closer. He definitely has the proven ability to say he is the best- drawn well which will help plus with Opie on, he will give him every chance, but he is by no means over the line with 60kgs against some handy 3 year olds. RP $2.90, $2.30 Ff

2.Cyber Attack 3rd $2.70 has been kept fresh for this. His win at Hastings showed he is a  very good 3yo. Missed the jump in his trial from the inside and looked good powering home for second. Drawn well and likely to be midfield or worse but has the ability to get right into this. RP $6.60, $7 FF

Race 3

The speed map shows six runners from across the field that will be going forward. An even tempo likely.

Confidence:2/5

9.Spring Heat is capable of very fast closing sectionals. Showed that last start when charging home. With an even tempo here and a track into it after being snagged, Tommy Berry will give her every chance to bury these. RP $5, $6 FF

Dangers:

4.Statocaster was back to his best here last start winning well on the pace. Drawn and weighted well and Opie will give him every chance. RP $5, $5 FF

2.Princess Kereru ran a game second in the railway here which has to be a strong lead into this despite the weight rise.  Rates on top after weight adjustments.

5.Ever Loyal 2nd $2.30 ran home strongly in his recent trial and drawn to get every chance.

 

 

Race 4

The speed map shows Whiskey Neat, Beauty Diva, Louis Luck, Neptune’s Spear, Challa and any others that begin well will likely make the most of it. A moderate to even tempo likely as Whiskey Neat will likely hand up if anything goes crazy up front.

Confidence: 3/5

2.Whiskey Neat was very impressive winning on debut running some top class sectionals. Then second start here, he began evenly, showed good natural early speed to lead, relaxed and cornered well, then showed a good kick to draw out although ran out late. He will obviously be improve with that run and the experience as well. Tony Pike will have found an extra two or three lengths in him and he has trialed well since. Drawn to lead then take a sit if something is determined to lead, and with his impressive stride, he can get the ideal run to the turn on the pace, and looks very hard to beat. RP $2.20, $2.70 FF

Dangers:

1.Aotea Lad  2nd $1.70 looked good winning at Trentham on debut and closed off strongly for second to Whiskey Neat last start. Needs a good ride from James from that draw but looks the main danger. $5, $7 FF

6.Louis Luck on debut began well and led on the fence and showed good ability to keep kicking to win well. Drawn to get a good run on the pace and with natural improvement, should be right in this. RP $6, $12 FF

11.Probabeel 1st $4  got a good run off the pace last start and just got up with a smart late sprint. Drawn the widest here which makes it very hard to win. Needs luck  as she will be at least 8 lengths off the  leaders 600m out and enough tempo to get over them. RP $7, $3.70 FF

Race 5

Early speed from Sleeping Beauty, Le Castile, Lucyinrio and Indecision ensuring an even tempo suiting all runners.

Confidence: 3/5

1.Volpe Veloce 1st $2.10 in the Railway here last start drew wide, snagged back and charged home for fourth in 33.53 and 11.45 for her last 200m rating an FR of 116. The step to 1400m looks ideal. She maps to get a good run about 6th or 7th and against her own sex, she rates clearly on top by 2 lengths after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings. RP $2.40, $2.70 FF

Dangers:

9.Le Castille has been impressive winning her last two races. Two starts back burned both ends and won well here over 1300m then bounced to the lead at Tauranga and led all of the way. She rated 106 then 110 in the Formpro Ratings and need to find around 3 lengths and rate around  113 to win this. She definitely looks to have that potential as she is best ridden in the lead or outside others where she can get wound up early and use that impressive stride of hers to kick and hold others out. It is not a strong mares field, which will help also.RP $5, $7 FF

2.Bisou Bisou  has had a freshener and beat Volpe Veloce at Pukekohe over 1400m, albeit on a wetter track. Opie jumps on who will suit her style of relaxing and powering home.

4.Sleeping Beauty 2nd $2.40 did very well in the railway. Drawn to get a good run.

Race 6

Early speed from Miss labasa, Queen Of Diamoinds, Pris De Fer, Langkawi, Red Dynamo and Media Sensation so it should be a solid early tempo. With the big field of 18 runners there will be wide runners into the first bend that may move before then to get in one off, so I’d favour a better than even tempo suiting runners midfield or behind.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Madison County is certainly the best proven horse in the field having rated an FR ( Formpro rating ) of 109 winning the 2000 Guineas then two months later at Trentham off a slower tempo and was still too good. Fourth horse More Wonder ran a very good race in the Group 1 Thorndon Mile next up so franks that. The real positive is the good chance of a strong tempo, as there was in this last year,. he jumps evenly and realxes quickly, so is just foing to need the gaps at the right time, which usually occur in fast run races, and he is going to be very hard to keep out. RP $2.60, $2.70 FF

Dangers:

17.Miss Lambasa rated an FR of 107 last start, second only to Madison County in this. That was based on her win in by far the best speed rating ( 114) last start all day – better than the Open class horses. She wasn’t being pushed over the line either. She has the early speed to get handy and can take a sit as she showed winning on debut. Being unbeaten, you can’t say just how good she is, but rating just 2 lengths behind Madison County, at just her third start, you can see why she has come in from $15 to $12 ff with the bookies early on. negatives are first time on this track and up to 1600m. RP $6, $15 into $12 FF

5.Long Leaf  1st $4 in from $8 !   from Australia has been racing strongly and is certainly up to this class. Ran a close third in the Sandown Guineas over 1600m after getting every chance in the 1×1 but that is uphill in the run home. A solidly run 1600m is a query though especially from that draw where he will need luck to get a good run. James McDonald will aid that though.

4.Surely Sacred had to be very good to win off that slow tempo here last start, dashing past them all, including More Wonder, to win easily. Good tempo will suit.

Trentham

Some small but even fields here. It is tough punting here so tread carefully.

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

4.Cinzento  two good runs and drawn to get a good run. Race day experience and fitness has to be a plus as well.

Dangers:

6.Glinda Goodwitch won her trial well and and drawn to get every chance.

 

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

2.Kapinos has run two strong seconds over 1200m in better maiden fields. Drops back to 1000m where he can sit 2nd outer and should be right at his peak now so looks hard to beat. RP $2.50, $2.50 FF

Dangers:

6.Spring Blossom run down late in slow time last start. Likely to lead here but Kapinos looks better.

7.McEdith  1st $4.80  ran some nice races last campaign. Quiet recent 4th in trials and drawn to get the last go at the leaders.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

5.Lincoln’s Gal 2nd $2.20   just beaten in an R72 race last start rating 104 .Drops back in class from the ace draw. Ready to peak as well. RP $3, $3.40 FF

Dangers: 

7.Platinum Mam’selle strikes the right field to get back into winning form.

1.Fibonacci 1st $5.30   rates well in this weaker R65 and drawn well.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

3.Merlini 2nd $1.80 freshened up and drawn to lead and the 1000m suits ideally. RP $3

Dangers:

5.Vinnie’s Volley freshened up as well and rates strongly.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

2.Real Beach 2nd $2  has won his last two strongly and gets in here on 54kgs. Rates eqiually on top after weight adjustments and drawn to get all favours. RP $3.50

Dangers:

3.Shared Secrets 1st $4.50   won well two back and ran on late last start in an on pace race. Can win.

4.Italian Lover fights very hard and drawn to get an ideal run.

Race 6

Confidence:2/5

5.Miss Doherty 1st $6.80  has had a freshener and drops back to 1400m, which is her ideal distance. Drawn to get all favours and rates on top after weight adjustments. RP $4.50

Dangers: 

4.Maduro  racing strongly and rated 101 last start. Drawn to win.

1.Platinum Wildcard  2nd $2.40  drawn to get back and charge home

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

5.Rosetta  racing much better now. Drawn to get a good run and be the one to beat. RP $5

Dangers:

1.Whenharrymetsaddle 2nd $1.80 won well last week and is in career best form. needs a good ride with the big weight.

6.Dream Dancer was a bit unlucky last week. Can upset with a good run.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

8.Cottoneva 3rd $1.80 ran home really well here for 4th last start and is right at her peak now.

Dangers:

3.Diamond Belt 2nd $1.50  is in strong form and with a good run should be close.

7.Vencedora 1st $5 gets 2kgs off and is capable of winning with a top effort.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!