Home » Results » Saturday 9 February 2019 preview below

Saturday 9 February 2019 preview below

Update: With the inside being off, and a moderate tempo likely, she will likely be trailing or three back inner, and it is easy to see her being held up from the 600m on the fence and be no show then, so pass on her. Sacred Day looks great and definitely has the edge now – but I could have it completely wrong. – and did! That has to be the ride of the day so far from Vinnie Colgan! Hopefully you took the suggested quaddie. Paid $1221 for a $512.90 return if you took the 41%

Update: 9.Sword Of Stone has the ear covers on which has kept him calm. The inside is off so that should suit his style as well. He looks terrific and has firmed from $5 into $4.60 so ticks all the boxes. $100 win $3.80FF

Update: Aaron P who won the 420 multi bet this week has a multi with Sword Of Stone $5 into Danzdanzdance $1.70 taken last night so will be subject to a deduction. Good luck.

I’ll be updating the two quality bets 2 minutes before the race- Rondinella and Sword Of Stone.

Te Rapa

Heads Up is here where The Money Shot and I preview the two big races from Te Rapa and mention how you could win $5,000 next week.

The rail is out 5m from True last time here.

Watch out for market moves for good leads into the winning chances. I’ll be doing an article about it soon.

Bet of the day Te Rapa Race 7 7.Danzdanzdance at $1.70 FF

Value bet of the day Te Rapa Race 5 9.Sword Of Stone now $5 FF  the First Call special is $4 if he wins and money back for 2nd or 3rd. He will be a Quality bet on the First call Special available ( Now closed- it must have maxed out. ) here

They stated on the First Call the Option would be open till Noon Saturday with no mention of a cap, so all they do is piss punters off by not honouring their offer.

Speed map Special Te Rapa Race 6 7.Rondinella $2.60 FF Quality bet. 1st $2.80

Sneaky bet Te Rapa Race 9 10.Dama Zorro $6.50 FF

Early quaddie suggested bet for $20 for 12%

R2     1, 2, 6, 7
R3    1, 3, 5, 13
R4    1, 2, 3, 4, 5
R5     1, 9

Late quaddie suggested bet: $20 for 41% $512.90 return

R6  5,7
R7   5, 7
R8  6, 8, 9
R9   2, 6, 10, 11

 Race 1 

Confidence: 1/5 in a race where market moves up and down will give you a good lead.

4.Patch Prince looked impressive in his trials. On debut he drew wide,snagged back and ran on nicely. Better for that experience and drawn to land on the pace this time. Early mover from $5 into $4.80 FF

Dangers: 

3.Sherwood Forrest likely to get back and the way he unwound late to win his trial, he will be coming at these hard late.

7.Shake That Tush battled on well for third last start. Fitter now and opened at 410 and into $9 from a punting stable.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5 where Demonetization is too short at $2.50 FF

7.Justamaiz 1st $9.40 has been rating well enough to be an upset chance in this. He has been freshened up and won that way over 1400m at Avondale. Negative is there is not a lot of pace in this but he does have a good weight advantage over these and with an aggressive Sam Spratt ride, he can do it. RP $5.00, $10 in to $8 FF

Dangers:

2.Demonetization just won last start on a dead track in 1.22.32, not the official 1.21.83. Trainer Nigel tiley said he is best suited to tracks with the cut in it and he may not get that. He carries 61.5kgs and giving weight to handy horses, so $2.50 Ff is too short.

1.Camino Rocoso maps to get a soft lead so the 62.5kgs won’t anchor him so much. can place.

6.Bella Court was unlucky in a harder field last start. If she can begin better from the inside draw, she could hunt through and get a soft lead and hold on.

Race 3

The speed map shows  Mings Emperor going forward and a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence:2/5

1.The Boy Wonder has been finding the line strongly in R72 races, the best being a close 4th to Starrybeel here. He maps to get a better run closer to the pace and in this easier R65 field, is a good eachway chance. RP $5.00, $8 FF

Dangers:

13.Miss Rippy 1st $4.90  got back and was held up at vital times last start. Will get back and need an even tempo which is unlikely, but if they go harder than expected, can win.

3.Wheao  looked good winning last start. With a good run should be in it.

5.Hoist  is racing well enough to include from the Sharrock stable.

Race 4

The speed map shows not a lot of on pace runners so a moderate tempo likely suiting runners in the first half in running.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Secret Allure was travelling like a winner a long way out at Trentham. She was strongly backed to win that. The step to 2000m again ( 2nd at Ellerslie over 2000m) looks ideal, especially from the inside draw where she can land three back inner and get every chance. RP $4,

Dangers:

3.Queen of Diamonds ran home strongly at Ellerslie last start and looks ready for 2000m now. will likely go forward early and if she doesn’t have to use too much petrol up, looks a real danger.

2.Imelda Mary  1st $5.80 ran home well in the strong Karaka Millions last start. 2000m is a distance she has won over and has drawn well.

5.Savvy Yong Blonk looks a staying type and if they go hard, can win.

Race 5

The speed map shows speed from 3 runners and an even tempo likely with the big field.

Confidence: 3/5

9.Sword In Stone was very impressive last start when he got back and they ran along up front in the fastest first 400m all day, and he reeled off the fastest 800,600,400 and 200 in the race and it was also the fastest speed rated race all day. Not surprisingly, there have been three good winners out of the race, and all over more ground. Michael Rodd should give him every chance and the way he found the line in that last 200m says he will relish the 2000m. He has Daria’s Fun in his bloodlines who won the 1988 Wellington Cup. He did sweat up a bit at Ellerslie and still relaxed well and raced very well, so if he sweats up, don’t be concerned. He is paying $18 in the Derby which is worth backing before this race. He is having the ear covers on put on pre-race to help him stay calm.

I spoke to trainer Leanne Brennan and she said, ” He’s come through that last run really well and I couldn’t be happier with him. When he galloped this week I had trouble pulling him so he’ll see the 2000m out! I just hope he settles but Michael Rodd will hopefully sort that out.”

I rate him a $3.80 chance so the $4 offered by the bookies for winning and money back for 2nd or 3rd, definitely looks like taking here

Currently paying $5.50 after opening at $6 FF

Dangers:

1.The Chosen One  ran on well in both seconds. goes from 1400 to 2000m which is a query but bred to be a good one and likely to go forward.

3.Lincoln Falls is a nice horse and has the blinkers going on. Wide draw no help though.

2.Crown prosecutor  drawn to get all favours which always helps in these races.

Race 6

The speed map shows Bully Boy likely to get an uncontested lead and a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5

7.Rondinella 1st $2.80 looked very strong and ready to win at Tauranga and bolted in. She has to be fitter for that and looks ideally placed here from the inside draw, to get a good run in the first four on a moderate tempo and should be a few lengths in front of main danger Sacred day on the turn and be too fast home for him and the rest in a bit of a sprint home.RP $2.20, $2.60 FF

Dangers:

5.Sacred Day  ran home strongly at Ellerslie in a strong field for third when the tempo favoured the on pace runners. he is likely to get back again and find the same problem, but if they go hard enough, he will test Rondinella.

2.Bully Boy with a soft lead could hold on for a place.

9.Pont Alma  won well at Ellerslie. Blinkers and Chris Johnson go on.

Race 7

The speed map shows Saint Emilion likely to cross and lead with a moderate tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 4/5

7.Danzdanzdance too fresh has bolted in both her group 1 races at Trentham and Ellerslie. She has enough early pace to settle 6th outer according to our map and only bad luck in running can beat her. RP $1.50, $1.70 FF

Dangers:

5.On The Rocks 1st $15.10   beat home Danzdanzdance at Ellerslie over 2100m giving her 1.5kgs. He was an impressive winner at Ellerslie and looked like he needed more ground now when battling at Trentham last start. Drawn to get all favours.

1.Charles Road really hit the line strongly fresh up. The blinkers go on and he bolted in over 1600m at Counties the last time that happened. Likely to get back which will not help but if they go hard enough, looks the only danger to the mare.

2.Saint Emillion should get an uncontested lead here and could hold on for a place if there is an on pace bias.

 

 

Race 8

The speed map shows four runners going forward and an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

9.Volpe Veloce showed her class when charging home at Ellerslie last start. She maps to get back which could be a negative but with an even tempo likely, she will get her chance. RP $3.20, $3.90

Dangers:

8.Melody Belle 1st with one gutsy win  out in a huge run in the Railway and that may have taken the edge off her for the Telegraph. She may have bounced bakl third up and drawn to get every chance.

6.Ardossan was heavily punted late at Elelrslie and had to win with the soft sit he got 2nd outer. He will need to work a bit more here to get 2nd outer depending on how UgoFuscolo jumps, but looks ready for 1400m now.

5.Stratocaster if they go hard, he has the ability to finish into a place at good odds.

Race 9

The Speed map shows plenty of early speed and could set up for a closer.

Confidence:2/5

10.Dama Zorro 1st $4.80 quad $1221  who looks like she is well placed now over 1400m after two solid seconds in good times. She gets back so needs a good tempo to win which she should get. Michael Rodd looks in for a very good day and he will give her every chance. RP $4, $6.00 FF

Dangers: 

2.Tightlign  is a strong looking fella who won really well at Tauranga. Drawn to get every chance and be the main danger. Opened $4.80 and into $4.20 FF

11.Rubira  returns from Australia and drawn to get a good run.

6.Marissa  won well at Ellerslie and with 3kgs off could prove hard to run down.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!