Free access to the Formpro Ratings means it must be Monday!
Market movers have always been a good indicator of which runners can win and which ones can’t. But of course you can’t say that for every race. If you backed every runner in every race that closed in price, you would soon be looking for another job! But having said that, I’ve been tracking them more closely since Christmas and Saturday at Te Rapa was a typical example of what has been happening, especially on days where there are races with plenty of exposed form. Because the bookies open up markets around 130% and wait to see what the money comes for, most horses will drift in price anyway because the percentage will start coming down to around 120% at times. Where all the money comes from know one knows for sure, except of course the bookies – but not if it through TABs or on course. But usually the owners of the horse get a strong lead from their trainer one way or the other. It may have missed some work, not eaten up in the last couple of days, or it could be any one of a hundred reasons. On the other hand it may have shown in its trackwork by beating better performed horses that is ready. Or the horse may have needed the last run and the trainer now feels he has it spot on. But we can never know the reasons why every horse in a race will drift or close in. But the money trail tells us where the confidence levels are. In fact it is becoming one of the best indicators of a runner’s chances. But you still need to do your homework as there often has to be a valid reason why it can win.
Let’s take a look at Te Rapa from Saturday…. Subscribers can read the rest of article with images of market movers here