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Wednesday preview below

Update race 9 2.The Glint and 3.Jet Set have been the best backed – both from $4.80 into $3.00 and $2.80. 2.The Glint looked fit and ready to lead or be 2nd outer which is the place to be. Led all the way for a strong win.

Update race 8. 9.Savastep $3.90 into $3.20 is best backed and also on other sites. 7.Birdie Blitz $8.50 into $5 but has had many chances. Just held on to win so another to the Market Movers.

2nd was 2.Caught The Eye opened at $12, got out to $14 and came back to $13 in the last 30 seconds.

 

Update race 7″ 12.Vendella has been strongly backed all day $6 into $4.40 and 13.Bothered $11 into $5.50 is also a good sign. Back both. Bothered got up well late and actually got into $4.60 late.

Update for race 6. Even though 1.Fabulous flight has been the closer from $5.50 to $4.60 earlier, he is paying more with other bookies, so that is a concern drifting to $6s  3 minutes out too. 3.Lord Arthur, the value bet of the day, went down looking full of himself and looks ready. 9.En Soi in from $12 to $9.50 is the biggest late mover. 1.Fabulous flight just gets up with the inside run and 3kgs off so the early money was spot on. Lord Arthur just got balanced up a little too late but drove much better late. looking for more ground now.

Update for Race 3

The first two races have been won by market closers so lets hope the trend continues. $15k bet at $2.10 on Lilikoi placed earlier today shows confidence. Looks great and nothing else is closing in price. Didn’t show a lot of dash after getting a good run and got out in time. Back for race 6. Someone asked me why she wasn’t a quality bet. Simple because she was no value. I rated her a $2 chance so long term you lose on those punting.

Te Aroha

Good morning,

Nine tough races with maidens going around. But if you read my article about market movers being one of the strongest indicators of winners on Monday, then hopefully we can come out on top. I’ll be updating race 3 and the last four races about a minute before the race with what look to be the best bets according to that and other form factors like track bias etc.

Bet of the day Race 3 7.Lilikoi $2.10 ( Updated 1 minute before start.)

Value bet of the day Race 6 3.Lord Arthur $6.50 FF

Recommended late quaddie for $16.20 for 5%:

R6    1, 3, 6, 8, 9, 12

R7      7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14
R8     8, 9, 11
R9     2, 3, 10

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5 in a race with at least four live chances.

7.Firoden ran a solid second two starts back over 1200m but the time I got was 1.10.58, not the very good 1.09.76 stated. Last start he worked hard to get 2nd outer, and was run down for that placing late. Drawn to get a better run this time. He has been the early mover with bookies from $9 into $7.50. 1st and was the significant closer into $4.60 FF

Dangers:

1.Rusavy looked promising before getting checked out of it in a stronger race at New Plymouth. The bigger track will suit.

2.Holy Loch will appreciate the 2kgs off and a good draw. Shoed enough to win a maiden.

13.Eleanor Rigby closed off nicely fresh up and 1400m suits.

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

2.The White Queen  keeps on finding one better.

5.Honfleur  drawn the inside and gets 3kgs off. early mover form $9 to $8 FF

11.Oratio  bred to win races and should be improved by that first run.

 

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

7.Lilikoi looked good leading all the way in her heat win in 48.18 and last 400m in  22.63. As a good comparison, Reilly Central, a 5yo mare, won her maiden after leading all the way in her trial in a slower time of 48.89 and last 400m in 23.09. Lilikoi also ran the fastest time of the 8 heats. Drawn to lead and the 1000m looks ideal. Money has come for her early as well $3.40 to $2.70. Rated price $2.00 FF

Dangers:

1.Qiji Swordsman looks like a nice horse after a strong 2nd on debut after getting back and unwinding late for second. Drawn well but likely to be a few lengths off Lilikoi 400m out and hard to see him running her down from there.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5 

2.Ensemble  bred to win a few races and is ready to fire fresh up.

13.Sweet Dreams ran a close 4th in trial and looked to be going very well with no room till late

11.Our Fine Wine was the early mover from $15 into $13 Ff – just a fair trial for third though.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

6.Sir Aglovale did well last start covering ground wide from the 600m. needs a good ride from the wide draw.

4.Gehrig strong finish last start behind Sponge Bob and bred to win races.

8.Rusalka  needs a 10/10 ride to win but can do it if she gets it.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

3.Lord Arthur  has shown the ability to win more races. Wasn’t suited by the sit sprint tempo last start.  better tempo here and if he starts coming in on FF odds, that will be a good sign from this stable that he is ready.

8.Diamondsandbubbles won really well last start in good time beating a nice horse that ahs since won. Drawn the inside and gets 2kgs off.

6.Kinsasha  strong win last start and looks a  progressive type.

12.Tokyo Lil has run two good races and weighted to be in this.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

12.Vendella  strong 3rd last campaign at Elelrslie. Too keen fresh up at Hastings. The blinkers come off and ear covers go on. Vinnie Colgan suits.

8.Anything But well bred and was late scratched at the gates last month.

13.Bothered showed she can win at least a maiden in her trial win. Saddle slipped ( actually hung badly) last start but did well to hold fifth.

7.Atom Ant strong rating in an R65 race last start. Drawn to get every chance.

2.Super Bullet has shown enough at trials to be in it.

Race 8  

8.Qiji Crystal had the tempo against her last start. Bigger track suits and looks hard to beat. Early mover from $3.40 to $2.60

11.June Rose nice run last start and right in this third up.

9.Savastep ready to strike after a good second last start.

Race 9 

Confidence: 2/5

3.The Glint  fought well for third at Ellerslie in a stronger 30k maiden. Freshened up and Peter McKay doesn’t start them fresh up over 1600m unless they are ready. Maps to lead and if the money confidence is there, he can lead all the way. He’s the type of horse that needs to be scrubbed up before the turn and he just keeps going. RP $ $3.20, $3.50 FF

Dangers:

3.Jet Set has been running home well and 1600m suits now.

10.Sciacca ran on late on debut and nicely bred from the Pike stable. Blinkers go on.

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!