It looked a tough card at Te Aroha yesterday and so it proved to be for many. But if you had been following the market closers, then you would have had not a shabby day. I updated them about a minute from start time in races 3,6,7,8,and 9 for subscribers. In race 3, Lilikoi was the best backed by far from around $2.90 ( less deductions, into $1.90 with a $15k bet on her. She got a good run but just didn’t kick on, so one nil to the bookies. Then in Race 6, Fabulous Flight was the best backed earlier in the day from $5.50 into $4.60, but drifted late to around $6. He was well ridden along the rail and with the weight allowance, just got up over my value bet for the day Lord Arthur, who just got out and balanced a little too late. He is definitely looking for more ground now, so connections will be pleased from a Derby point of view. 2 – zip to the bookies, but if you ignored my advice on the late drift on Fabulous Flight, you would have been on a winner.
In the next, two runners stood out in being backed in: Vendella $6 into $4.40 and Bothered $11 into $5.50 ( You have to take into account scratching after these prices were posted of course ). Bothered looked well and I was keen on her anyway, and Vendella was likely to be on the pace, where the winners were coming from, plus it was from the strong Pike stable. So it was a good case of backing two horses in the race. Bothered drove hard late to win well so 2-1 to the bookies. In the eighth. Birdie Blitz was the best backed from $8.50 into $5s, even though I wasn’t that keen with her low strike rate and just got up so 2-2 with the last to go.
I was really keen to see The Glint in his prelim as he had rated the best performing well against better fields and looked an ideal type to lead all the way, which was the best place to be. He looked very free in his action and rearing to go. He and the his likely main danger, Jet Set, were backed in from $4.80 to $3 and $2.80, so plenty of confidence for both and nothing else closed. So I prompted subscribers to get on The Glint and he was perfectly rated by Shaun McKay and actually ended up paying $2.70 on the tote.
So 3-2 to the good guys and a nice profit made on the day. Earlier on, Firoden was the best backed in the first race from $$9 to $4.60 and although it just won, still paid the same price. What do we learn from all this? It is becoming increasingly obvious that if you can find market closers that have the right credentials to win, then you are going to get a regular supply of winners. Of course you will miss the better prices but isn’t that better than backing a horse at $3 and then seeing it gradually drift to $5, then seeing it not fire in the straight for whatever reason? There are more angles you can do with these closers and drifters as well which I’ll expand on in Heads Up this Friday with the Money Shot. Plus, you will hear which subscriber has been drawn to get his or her chance to win $5,000!
At Riccarton today, there are five runners I’ve identified that have moved in the market that have the credentials to be on for subscribers here
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