Home » Results » Saturday 23 February preview below

Saturday 23 February preview below

Quality bets now have 17 winners from 37 bets for a level stakes profit of 20.5 units since November 17th 2018.

Update: Apologies for no update on Hanger. He ran a fair third.

Update. Concert Hall looks very fit and ready to win$100 win tote – won easily

Update 8.55 a.m.

Suggested quaddies:

Matamata early quaddie: $18 for 50%

R1    1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8
R2   9
R3    1, 2, 8
R4    1, 3

Matamata late quaddie, $31.50 for 10% Missed- apologies for not putting in 2nd selection Aretha!

R5  2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 12
R6   1, 2, 8
R7    3, 8, 10
R8    5, 7, 10, 11, 15

Otaki late quaddie $27.50 for 50%

R5   1, 2, 6
R6    1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
R7    4, 8, 9
R8    7

Update. Aaron P won the $5,000 multi bet from Heads Up and it is posted at the bottom of the page ( 1 down 8 to go!)

Matamata

Good morning,

With rain overnight at both venues, we have downgrades at both venues, but a Dead 6 and Slow 7 isn’t as bad as it could have been.

Heads Up is here with a preview of the main race at Otaki and the Money Shot’s best sports selection ( playing Friday night) Highlanders to lead by 9.5 at half time at $1.92, plus the winner of the $5,000 multi bet and next week’s lucky winner. Knocked out after

Bet of the day Otaki Race 8 7.Platinum Invador $2.10 Ff 1st $1.60 

Value bet of the day Matamata Race 2 9.Concert Hall $3.70 FF ( Quality bet updated 2 minutes before the race ) $3 tote and $3.40 FF

Speed map Special Otaki Race 2 2.Hanger $3.40 FF  ( Quality bet updated 2 minutes before the race ) 3rd 

Sneaky Of The day Otaki Race 5 2.Harlem ‘N’ Co $5.00 FF Late scratched

 

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

3.Effervescent 2nd $2.20 won well here on a slow track fresh up. Good run two back from the back at Trentham in an on pace race. Battling 4th last start on a Good track. Drawn to get all favours. RP $5, $7.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Tolemac was close up in a stronger 3yo race two back. Too far last week.

6.Philosophical  drawn to get every chance and is a nice horse.

2.The Helix won well fresh up and with a good run, can be in it.

 

Race 2

The speed map shows good early speed and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5

9.Concert Hall 1st $3 is a very good mare who had to be good to win last start when missing the start, getting back off a slow pace , but still blew them away running her last 200m in very good 11.54 . She has won twice on Dead 6 tracks and with a clean jump can settle midfield which should be ideal and get over these with 54kgs. She also looks better left handed. RP $2.70, $3.70 FF

Dangers:

6.Rhinestone Cowboy 2nd qu $5.80   is obviously a good horse. Fresh up over 1600m against a good field is a big ask though. Trialed nicely when held up late on the fence going well.

8.Neeson should get a good run on the pace and if the track is no worse than a Dead 5 should be in it.

14.Za Za Gabor has been a decisive winner in both her wins. Light weight and a good run on the pace means she is the one to run down.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

1.Monaco has won his last two very well. Drawn wide but looks to be good speed up front, so Trudy can snag back and and with a good track into it, be hard to keep out again. RP $4, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

2.Mr Universe bolted in last start in an easier maiden. Should be right in this.

8.Maison Roxanne 1st $3.60   good win fresh and weakened in a stronger  race last start. Drawn ideally.

 

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

1.Aotea Lad tried very hard in the KM for second. Strong 2yo and action says a Dead to slow track is ok. Won a slow track at Trentham. negative is he has had three hard runs so may be in need of a rest?

2.Yourdeel 1st $2.30  solid 3rd behind Aotea Lad and and ace draw ideal.

3.Equinox was an impressive winner on debut with a powerful action best suited to a Dead 4 or better so dependent on what track does. Rider said he didn’t handle it.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

8.La Mia Stella 1st $5.60 was a decisive winner here last start off a perfect run. Tougher from a wider draw and up 2kgs. RP $4

Dangers:

3.Danger Dee ran home hard last start in a very good last 600m and with a good run behind the pace, could do it.

2.Owen Patrick with a soft time up front can bounce back.

6.Giant Gem has the blinkers going on which will help. has won on a slow track.

Race 6

2.Bavella was caught 3w open last start on a slow 7 track and was still too good when she drew clear 200m out. Hasn’t trialed since but will be ready to go. has enough early tactical speed to get into a winning spot. RP $2.70, $1.90 FF is too short.

Dangers:

5.Aretha 1st $15  ran a good third on debut and the way she went to the line full of running in her recent trial, shows she could upset these from the ace draw with a good run likely.

1.Appelant ran a very good 3rd in the KM and and a wet track will be ok. Wide draw no help though.

8.Harlow was impressive coming from last to win at Te Rapa. Likely to get back, but if they go hard, she can swamp them.

 

Race 7

The speed map shows early speed from wide out and an even tempo likely.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

3.Tiptronic ran a career best run last start at WFA rating 114. He drops to 56.5 kgs and just needs to rate 113 to win this. Drawn out but Jason Waddell should have little trouble crossing with the early speed outside him then can take a sit. he ran second here on a dead 6 track in a big mile race to Ocean Emperor. Very fit and on his home track looks hard to beat.

Dangers:

10.Rondinella 2nd $1.60 has always promised to do what she has done recently with two dominant wins. This is by far her biggest test to date. If the track gets to a Dead 5 or worse, the $2.90 Ff becomes hard to take as she needs a decent footing against this stronger field.

8.Vin De Dance  1st $4.70  was worked on well out at New Plymouth and kept finding over the 1800m. 2000m will suit better, but may be looking for even more ground. The Dead 6 track or worse will be in his favour.

1.Charles Road, despite the 60.5 kgs, won’t mind a dead 6 or worse track as he has won on slow tracks, and is third up and fitter.

Race 8

The speed map shows good early speed and at least an even tempo likely.

15.Poppy Star had her first crack at 2000m last vstart and did very well for a close second after working more than Konstantina, the winner and race rival. Drawn to get a good run and a Dead to slow should be ok.  RP $5.50, $9 FF

Dangers:

11.Voleur Pour Moi 1st $4.60 quad $4723 will appreciate the easing of the track and ngets in on a good weight.

10.Princess El Jay  is a tough middle distance mare and could upset with a good run.

5.Lady Painton strong second last start to a good horse and a middle distance suits.

Otaki

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

5.Our Hail Mary  1st $4.60 looked good winning on debut with a good stretch late. Can come with the last run again. RP $4

Dangers:

3.Maria Dior is always a chance in a race like this. Plenty of money has come for her since opening.

 

Race 2

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and at least an even tempo.

Confidence: 3/5

2.Hanger 3rd won in good time at Awapuni fresh up then was outclassed in the Telegraph. Freshened up again and has won on a heavy track. The decent tempo in this suits him ideally as he will likely snag here and with Troy Harris looking to get a track into at the right time, he will be very hard to beat. RP $2.20, $3.40 FF

Dangers:

1.Sweepstake will likely be back with Hanger and her best form is on dry tracks so can’t see her beating hanger home with Troy Harris v the apprentice either.

8.Vinnie’s Volley has won on slow tracks and will be improved by that last run.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

5.Awesome Al 1st $4.40 almost got up last start. 1400m suits and drawn to get all favours. RP $4, $4

Dangers:

8.Castani is close to a win and Opie could make all the difference.

3.Malo Bik drops back in class with 4kgs off. Dead to slow ok.

3.Blue On Black won fresh up last campaign and ready to repeat after a good trial win.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

2.Tiro 1st $9 looks better suited to 1600m and Chris Johnson will suit his style of racing. RP $4.50

Dangers:

6.Lincoln Fury 2nd  $1.50 qu $12.70 strong third last start. With a good run is in it.

1.Thutmosis two solid seconds and 4kgs off always helps when you are trying lead all the way.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

2.Harlem ‘N’ Co late scratched really hit the line hard last week at Wanganui after being held up. Fitter now and 1600m will suit. Has won on a heavy track here over 1400m. RP $4

Dangers:

1.Platinum Wild Card  had his chance last start and fought well for second.

5.Gerda  looked good winning here last start and drawn to get all favours.

Race 6

The speed map shows Sampson leading and a moderate tempo likely.

1.Sampson looks an uncontested leader here and despite the weight, he won’t mind what the track is like, he could prove hard to peg back. RP $7, $14 Ff

Dangers:

4.All In Vogue had a tough run over 1600m last start. Fitter and h=gets in on a light weight. Slow track will be against though.

5.Felaar 1st $1.70  ran on well late fresh up and will get back, so the slow tempo will be against. If swoopers are winning, he is the one to beat.

Race 7

The speed map shows just a couple of runners looking to be leaders with a few looking to tuck in behind so a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

8.Melody Belle 1st $2.50  showed her toughness when coming off a poor run at Trentham to drive through late and win at Te Rapa. She won the WFA 1600m Windsor Plate at Hastings on a Dead 4 track after winning on Slow tracks at Hastings and Te Rapa. She maps to sldie over and get 2nd outer on a moderate tempo and it is going to take a good effort to best her. RP $2.60, $2.80 FF

Dangers:

9.Volpe Veloce was beaten by a wide draw when she had to snag and a slow tempo at Te Rapa. Drawn to land closer and won the Railway on a slow track.

4.Bostonian  won’t mind a slow track- won a Group 3 on the Sunshine Coast on a heavy track. Just beaten last start.

2.Shadows Cast is in the best form of his life and and drawn to land on the pace, which will be the place to be.

Race 8

The speed map shows

Confidence: 3/5

7.Platinum Invador 1st $1.60 qu $6.70  is a good horse who would have been right in the Avondale Guineas with a clear run. He went to the line full of running. He still ran the fastest closing sectionals rating an FR of 103 which still puts him clearly on top here with just 54kgs. He has to win this to get in the Derby field so at least you know they will be all out to win this. he has won here over 1600m on a slow track so any rain is ok. Smaller field helps as he will get back but he has a fast last 200 metres so as long as Johnson doesn’t get held up in the straight, he will be very hard to beat. Slow track ok as he has won here on it.RP $1.80, $2.20

Dangers:

9.Schist  2nd $2.40  may well have won or gone very close last start with a clear run she was going so well when held up. 2100m should suit as she is on her way to the Oaks. Looks the obvious danger.

Aaron P’s Multi returns $8243 if it comes in.

Highlanders @ 1.93 just missed in last minute of first half.
Half Time Points Start
Highlanders v Reds
Bulls @ 1.86
Head To Head
Jaguares v Bulls
Chiefs @ 1.35
Head To Head
Brumbies v Chiefs
Spellbound @ 1.50 Yes
FFWIN
Addington Race 3
Concert Hall @ 3.50  yes
FFWIN
Matamata Race 2
Hanger @ 2.90  3rd 
FFWIN
Otaki Race 2
Melody Belle @ 1.40 yes 
FFTOP3
Otaki Race 7
Platinum Invador @ 2.10
FFWIN
Otaki Race 8
Together @ 1.90  Scr 
FFTOP3

Matamata Race 5

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!