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Saturday 9 March preview below

Update: From Heads Up The Money Shots best Sports bet is Sunday morning with the Bulls -5.5 $1.90 against the Sharks.

Update 3.53: 2.Comeback looks very fit and is a wee bit warm which he usually does anyway. Track is playing fairly and will get his chance to settle in behind and beat these home in the last 100 metres. $100 win $3.70 FF. Suggested multi with Blue Breeze $1.85 head to head Yes $68 for every $10 with Prince Jabeel which is suspect in the ground. It wasn’t even a contest- won easily.

Update: With the track probably getting to a Slow 7 no quality bets at Ellerslie but Comeback in race 6 at Trentham is still one at $3.90 FF. I’ll update his race 2 minutes from start time.

Melbourne quaddie $25.20 for 10%

R6   2, 4, 14
R7   1, 2, 3, 9, 10, 11, 14
R8   7
R9   1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12

Max, who won the Heads Up $5k multi bet last week has these four runners going today: Returns $5237 less any deductions. Good luck.

3 out of 4 with vainglory having its chance. Our beloved bookies never offered a cash out either

Blue Breeze @ 5.25
FFTOP3
Ellerslie Race 9
Melody Belle @ 2.90
FFWIN
Ellerslie Race 8
Vainglory @ 4.20
FFTOP3
Ellerslie Race 10
Comeback @ 3.90
FFWIN
Trentham Race 6

Good morning,

Ellerslie has come up a Dead 5 after 19mm of rain last night. Metservice forecasts another 5mm with showers on and off as well, so it will be around a 1.11 track for 1200m. The rail is out 2.5m and they tend to get away from the rail when it is like that, especially later in the day with ten races on the card. So outside draws may be a plus but we will wait and see. Max won the Heads Up multi and I’ll post that by noon. You can win next week’s multi if you can answer an easy question in this week’s Heads Up where the Money Shot and I preview races 8 and 9 at Ellerslie plus more  here

Not a day for going hard but we have had a a good run with the quaddies, so maybe they are the best options today, especially with the Bonuses on offer. ( $25k on the late quaddie at Ellerslie )

I’ll post an update by noon with Any Australian bets.

Bet of the Day Ellerslie Race 8 9.Melody Belle $3.00 FF in from $3.40FF 1st $2.70 

Value bet of the day Trentham Race 6 2.Comeback $4.80 FF in from $6 FF Now $3.90 after scratchings. 1st $3.50 FF

Speed map Special Ellerslie Race 6 3.Rikki Tikki Tavi $6.50 FF

Sneaky of the Day Ellerslie Race 9 7.Blue Breeze $21 FF 3rd $4.40 

Ellerslie early quaddie $24 for 10%

R2  1, 2, 4, 6
R3   2, 10
R4   3, 4, 5, 8, 10, 11
R5    2, 6, 8, 11, 13

Late quaddies:

$30 for 20% $101.90 return

R7   1, 2, 4, 7, 11
R8   9
R9    1, 3, 4, 7, 14
R10    2, 3, 4, 6, 10, 12

Saver for $15 for 10%

R7   1, 2, 4, 7, 11
R8   10
R9   1, 3, 4, 7, 14
R10   2, 3, 4, 6, 10, 12

Ellerslie

The rail is out 2.5m from True last Saturday.

Race 1

The speed map shows good early speed from across the field and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

9.Spindle 1st $4  would have gone close to wining last Saturday if she had got the gaps in the straight. Instead she went to the line full of running. Drawn to get every chance here but needs a Dead 4 or better so wait till the track is updated. RP $4.00, $6 FF

Dangers:

6.Mr Universe drawn to get every chance and Opie Bosson jumps on.

2.Breezon  drawn to get all favours and has won on a slow track.

Race 2

The speed map shows four runners going forward to lead or sit on it. They may back off mid race with the small field so a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Contessa Vanessa solid third over 1400m last start. Can lead or trail here and with her fitness edge, gets her chance. RP $4, $4.40

Dangers:

1.Nicoletta has the best FR but not in her best form. Strikes the right race to get back into it.

4.Podravina  won well last start and drawn to get all favours.

6.Sandrine 1st $5 drawn to get all favours and that could make the difference.

Race 3

The speed map shows plenty of speed across the track and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

10.Bethany rated strongly last start in a stronger field. 1600m is ideal and a dead track is ok. Maps to get a good run behind an even pace and looks hard to keep out. Rates on top after weight adjustments too. RP $3, $2.80 FF.

Danger:

2.William Tell sat 2nd on a good tempo here last week and did well to hold down third. Maps to get a cosy run and 3kgs off from Tiger means he is the main danger. Dead track ok.

Race 4

The speed map shows Emerald Armour and Owen Patrick sharing a moderate tempo suiting runners in the first half of the field.

 

Confidence: 2/5

5.Giant Gem won strongly on a Dead 6 track over 1400m at Te Rapa. Last start he was handy then got shuffled back to 6th when they buttoned off. He unwound strongly for 5th. He is a strong 4yo and if he can settle in the trail or 3 back inner, he will relsish a Dead to slow track and be in the right spot to pounce. RP $6, $12 FF

Dangers:

4.Monaco 1st $6 has been finding the line strongly and looks like 1400m will suit now. Drawn out which is a negative as will likely get back off a moderate tempo.

11.Together  is a nice horse and if the track is a Dead or better one, can win. Had a stone bruise recently which caused him to be scratched from Matamata so watch market movements on him to see if it needs the run.

10.Nuclear Fusion found the line like 1400m will suit now and she is stronger. Good draw will help if she can get on the pace.

8.Jip Jip Rock  may go forward with the lack of speed and looks a promising filly.

3.Danger Dee maps to get a good run and could upset in an open race.

Race 5

The speed map shows plenty of speed right across so at least an even tempo likely.

13.Vichy two starts back won strongly and the 2nd and 3rd horses have since won. Last start drew out and had to work wide up the hill to get 2nd outer. She fought hard right to the line in good time. So here, she has drawn the inside, and should get a cosy trip on the rail. She seems better with a sit and despite being up in class, looks nicely placed on 54.5kgs to come at these with a well timed winning run. Dead track ok. RP $6, $9FF opened $12 FF

Dangers:

2.Rhinestone Cowboy  needed his fresh up run and will be fitter for this. carries plenty of weght though but is going to win more races, maybe over more ground.

8.Tightlign ran home well in an on pace race last start. Better tempo here will help- strong horse.

11.Sinarahma  will be ready and she is a very good well bred mare drawn well for a change.

6.Steven James  will appreciate the cut in the track and almost won last start. Drawn ideally.

Race 6

The speed map shows good early pace all over so at least an even tempo.

Confidence:2/5

3.Rikki Tikki Tavi closed off strongly here last week in a stronger field running good closing sectionals in an on pace race. If she had drawn in close, she may well have won. So dropping back to R82 class looks ideal from the handy draw. She maps to get an ideal run with samantha Collett up and she won a double at this meeting last year. RP $4, $6.50 ( opened $7.00 FF )

Dangers:

14.Marzemino she’s a very good mare and ready to win fresh. Wide draw a big negative though.

1.Stratocaster  gets 3kgs off and with the good tempo, he can swamp them late.

13.Dama Zorro  should get the race run to suit and weighted to charge late.

Race 7

The speed map shows Beauty Diva leading out with Rainbow Dash and Yourdeel looking to get one off on the pace. An even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Yourdeel 1st 1.90 with an amazing win was a dominant winner at Matamata on a wet track and if he can slot in 2nd outer or one off behind the leaders, has to be hard to beat. Trainer said he has improved off that run as well. RP $2.70, $3 FF

Dangers:

7.Bavella was hampered and got back at Matamata. Impressive before that and will have improved with that. may be better right handed too.

2.Aotea Lad  good second in the KM and last start. needs a bit of luck from the draw.

4.Equinox  is a good looking 2yo who won stylishly at Trentham. Then at Matamata he just didn’t handle the wet ground. He needs a Dead 4 or better with his action and if he gets it, maps to get all favours and be an upset chance. Update: on the Dead 5 or worse track it will make it harder for him.

11.Just Zerene  has run three good races in Australia and drawn the ace. Early money has come for him too.

Race 8

The Speed map shows Saint Emillion, Authentic Paddy, Tiptronic, Meldoy Belle, Shadows Cast and Consensus all going forward early and an even tempo likely from there suiting all runners. But they can button off in these 200m races midrace.

Confidence: 3/5

9.Melody Belle 1st $2.70  is a very tough mare who has that will to win. She sat wide on the fastest tempo last start over 1600m and still ran the fastest last 600m and 200m of the race. So the step to 2000m where she has the tactical speed from the good draw to get into a winning position. Her grand dam, Empress belle, won over a middle distance and was by Sir Tristram. With that kind of trip where she will relax nicely, plus with Opie Bosson up, she is going to be challenging and likely leading somewhere in the straight, and with her will to win, she has to be hard to beat. Dead 5 track is ideal as is WFA. RP $2.80, $3.20 FF

Dangers: 

10.Danzdanzdance  didn’t have things go her way at Te Rapa and she was a bit keen off the 45 day break. She was a dominant winner here in the Zabeel Classic on a heavy track. Any rain will only help and she maps to get a nice run midfield off an even tempo and with her sprinting ability, does look the obvious one Melody Belle has to hold out.

1.On The Rocks  was a decisive winner at Te Rapa beating Danzdanzdance and maps to get the ideal run again.

6.Vin De Dance  showed he had improved a great deal on his fresh up run for 4th. He maps to get a good run and will likely get going early and put the pressure on to make it a staying test.

Race 9

The speed map shows Peso, Verry Flash and the Ozzie Vengeur Masque likely to share the pace and a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 1/5

7.Blue Breeze 3rd $4.40 tri $293  pushed Glory Days hard in the Avondale Cup running the fastest last 400m 22.38 and 11.51 of the race and was strong on the line. Those sectionals compared very well to shorter races on the day. He gets his head down nicely and  won’t mind any rain and with a good run from that wide draw, can upset. RP $8, $21 FF

Dangers:

14.Glory Days  1st $5 has won five from ten races this campaign. She just has that will to win and the ability to keep winning. She won the Avondale cup here with a big sustained run and may have hit the lead too soon but toughed it out. Any moisture is only going to help her chances and looks the main danger.

3.Five To Midnight 2nd $2 drops to a winnable weight and was just beaten in this last year beating Charles Road.

1.Charles Road ran a fighting 7th in the last Melbourne Cup in the slower part of the straight. Fitter for last run too.

Race 10 

Confidence: 2/5

3.Lord Arthur  looks all over a middle distance runner. The way he found the line last start shows that. May just need the run but looks good enough to win this with a good run. RP $$4, $4.60 FF

Dangers:

10.Vain Glory  looked very well at Matamata and went a good race for 4th grinding away and more ground definitely suits.

6.Amano  ran a game third here last start. Drawn to get a good run.

10.Vee Cece  gets 3kgs off and has to be a chance despite the draw.

2.The Glint  needs more ground now and with a soft time up front could upset.

Trentham

Tricky meeting with little value except Comeback in race 6

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

2.Lincoln Fury 1st $1.80 did well off a tough run last start. Looks like his race. RP $2.50, $2 FF

Dangers:

5.Brawler unlucky last start and gets 3kgs off.

Race 2

7.Regera  should be hard to beat after two good seconds in her trials.

3.Springsteen won a recent trial well and looks the main danger with Lisa Allpress up.

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

2.Hiflyer gets 4kgs off and looks well placed against these to get back into winning form. Rates 3L clear after weight adjustments on these. Slow track ok. RP $2, $1.85

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

5.Gerda 1st $3.20 is a  nice mare who looks well palced with 3kgs on the wet track.

Dangers:

3.Nirvana with a good run likely, should get every chance on the wet track to repeat his win here in December.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

2.Magico 1st $2.80 fresh up and goes well that way- wet track ok.

Dangers:

1.Lodi the obvious danger.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

2.Comeback 1st $3 closed $3.50 FF ran a huge second last start. He worked hard wide to get to the lead 700m out running 11.54 average 200m sectionals over the 1300m. He had every right to weaken 200m out but it took a very smart Rock On Wood to beat him. This time he can get a nice sit in behind an even tempo and with the 4kgs off rates on top in the Formpro Ratings and looks very well placed to win. He has won two of his races on slow tracks and ran a strong third to Hugo The Boss and Morweka here over 1200m who have both won since. RP $3.20, $4.80 in from $6 FF

Race 7

Confidence:2/5

10.Cead Mile Failte will appreciate the wet ground and gets 3kgs off.

5.Cottoneva 1st $3.50 quad $107  racing strongly and obvious chance.

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!