Home » Results » Saturday 16 March preview below

Saturday 16 March preview below

Update:

All in on 7.Misstumut who looks ready,  $4,800 win at $3.20 FF for a $32 payout if she wins or no payout if she loses. Nice win! There will be a $32 payout for every $10. If you want to leave part or all of it in for next week’s one, please let me know by Sunday night, otherwise I will pay out your full $32 for every $10 

$1700 win 3.Calligraphy $2.40 FF

$1250 win 11.Hanger at $3.80 FF

9.Pimms And pearls $300 ew at $15 and $3.50 FF 3rd Balance $7750

$500 win 5.Stacey Ann $4.80 FF  Starting bank is $4,800, Balance now is $7,200

$1200 win at $3.50 FF on 3.Chicane She looks relaxed and ready. Never in doubt!! $4,200 return

We have $2,000 from the Formpro syndicate and about $2,500 so far from the course pool. So around $,500 to $5,000 total. I’ll post the final total after race 3. I’ll post the bet on race 3 about 1 minute out.

Good morning,

The Tauranga Punters Club is now closed. The unit holders and amounts are posted here

Apologies- due to Technical problems no Heads Up this week. Reg W won the $5k multi bet and I’ll post that by 11.30 a.m. Saturday. It is now posted here

Bet of the Day Tauranga Race 3 3.Chicane $3.40 FF 1st $3.20

Value bet of the Day Tauranga Race 9 7.Misstumut $3.60 FF 1st $3.20 

Speed map Special Tauranga Race 7 3.Calligraphy $2.50FF

Sneaky of the day Tauranga Race 6 8.Pasabahce $15 and $4

The other Good confidence bet ( 3/5 or better ) is  Trentham Race 9 9.Lady Rudolph $2.60 FF

Suggested Trentham late quaddie: $42 for 10%

R6    1, 3, 8, 11, 13, 14
R7    1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8
R8    1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 13, 15
R9    9

Tauranga

Race 1 The Formpro/BGP Foundation Beat the Clock 1200

A time will be set before this race is run. If the winner beats it, it gets a bonus of $1000 from the BGP Foundation.

The speed map shows Silent Truth and Shipshape with the best early speed with Palimedes maybe hunting through to lead or settle for the trail. A moderate to even tempo likely suiting first four runners.

3.Palimedes ran some good races last campaign without much luck in some races. She trialed recently and share the pace on the inner to the turn and strode away in the last 100 metres without being pushed while the 2nd and 3rd horses were. Her trial win time was well out- the official was 46.69 and I got 47.68 with a last 400 in 22.11 and last 200 in 11.21. But compare that to Avantage’s trial 2nd time in 48.63 and 21.92 and 11.26, it was very good, especially with the way she went to the line. Drawn to lead or trail and be hard to beat. No blinkers in her trial – on today?

Order of preference:

1.The Reverant in his recent trial was slow away again, trailed and after getting clear late found the line well and looked to have won but was second. The winner, She’s Fearless, won well at Matamata on Wednesday. Nice looking horse.

2.All Paid Up in his last trial win began well, sat 2nd outer , led turning in and kept up a long loping stride for his big frame to win decisively. has the early speed to land in the first four.

7.Niche in her recent trial, was under a ride and raced awkwardly but battled well for second. Drawn well but may find a couple here too strong.

6.Shipshape drawn out but has the early speed to cross and lead or be second outer. Has been vulnerable late in her races so with the early work she has to do and her lack of race fitness, that same may happen.

4.Swoon last start here in Winter got back, was a bit keen and once out ran on ok with a wet track action. Likely to get back. In foal which can help matters.

Race 2

The speed map shows four runners going forward early with Bolt From The Blue likely to take it up and a moderate to even tempo likely.

1.Bolt From The Blue 1st $2.20  looked good winning leading all the way on debut. Then second up almost did it again but was nailed by the smart Spirits Aubeer here over 1200m. Had a recent trial leading all the way without being pushed. rates 5 lengths ahead of these on what he has done, so if he can lead or sit 2nd outer, he looks hard to beat. RP $2,50, $2.40 in from $2.90 FF

Dangers:

3.Eridani  tried hard fresh up and looks better with a sit which she should get here.

4.Bella Pronto maps to get back and if they go hard, she will coming at these late.

6.Cenghar won well on debut but the official time was incorrect- it was 1.10.58 not 1.09.87 and was flat out holding on.

Race 3

The speed map shows Joy Anna likely to lead with Chicane lobbing into the trail and Dama Zorro 3 back inner. A moderate tempo likely suiting the first four runners.

Confidence: 3/5

3.Chicane  1st $3.20  won fresh up here in November in 1.09.72 with the first 600m in 35.00 and closing 600m in 34.72. The significant factor is the 116 speed rating which on the same day easily beat the Open and WFA race ratings. Next up she may have been flat when a battling 5th. Two starts back she ran a strong closing second to Le Castille here in an Open handicap. Then last start battled in a sit sprint at Ellerslie. With the freshen up and back to 1200m, her best distance and track, and where she maps to get an ideal run in the trail, plus the 3kgs off, you can see why she rates on top. Trainer Ross McCarroll said, ” She worked really well on Thursday so she should be hard to beat. I’m pretty happy with her.” When I asked him is she at the same level she was at when she won fresh up here in November he replied, ” She’s better.” RP $2.40, $3.40 FF

Dangers in order:

4.Its Destiny Child won well last start here getting an ideal run along the fence and getting out in time to win with a bit in hand. Up in class here but drops to 52.5kgs. Won’t get the same economical run which will make it harder, but looks the main danger. He has run 1.09.60 at Ellerslie

6.Dama Zorro  just held on last start over 1400m. Freshened up a bit and maps to be 3 back inner and she will try to track Chicane through and get the last go at her.

5.Joy Anna wasn’t suited by the heavy track last week. Maps to lead and the improved track will help so if she gets a soft one, is the one Chicane has to run down.

2.Cinematic ran a fair race fresh up in a stronger field. Has won second up and this is easier. negative is wide draw and may have to snag or risk getting caught 3 wide in open. Then tempo may be against. Place chance.

1.Temple Tiger has run 13th, 3rd and 6th in last three fresh up runs. No trials. gets 3kgs off but likely to be a more of a place chance than serious win chance.

7.Memories Only good second to Its Destinys Child here in a weaker race two back. Weak last start. Hasn’t won for 14 starts so more of a place chance with a good run likely.

Race 4

The speed map shows Espresso Martini  likely to lead with Stacey Ann trailing and Stand Tall looking to get 2nd outer. Stacey Ann should get a cosy trail.A moderate to even tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.

5.Stacey Ann 2nd looks nicely placed here to get all favours in the trail. So is she good enough to win it? She has rated 107, the career best of anything here and 106 two starts back. last start the sloe track did not suit her. Negative is she hasn’t won for 14 starts. But she should get that winning run in the trail and has a fitness edge over Espresso Martini. She looks a strong place chance at even money and a nice eachway chance.RP $4.80, opened $7 and into $6 and $2.10 FF early betting.

Dangers in order:

4.Espresso Martini  1st $2.80 has been racing in strong 3yo races with a best rating of 104. Freshened up and needs to improve 2 lengths to win this. Likely to lead and if left alone, which is likely, could kick on them and if the money has come for her, that may just inidcate she can hold on to win.

2.Libretti maps to be 3 back inner which should allow her to follow through Stacey Ann and be a nice chance to be in the placings from there on the turn.

9.Aileen Grace will get back but with the light weight of 52kgs, she just needs a track into it to be coming at these late. Trainer said, ” Freshened up and has worked well leading into it.”

7.Stand Tall if he can get 2nd outer, as the map shows, and ensure a moderate tempo outside Espresso, he could hold on for a place as he ran a game second here over 1300m. A strong 1400m will likely find him out though.

3.Poker Face likely to get back and with the moderate tempo likely, find it hard to run down the on pace runners.

1.Roll The Gold maps to be 4th or 5th which helps but just fair finish last start against weaker runners. 3kgs off helps.

8.Thee Old Cougar  has her best form on slow or worse tracks and wide draw will make it tough.

Race 5

The speed map shows four runners with enough speed to lead if they jump well. Pimms ‘N’ Pearls likely to hunt through and lead though.

4.White Shield goes well fresh. Won on debut over 1200m and just beaten over 1400m at Avondale in a good form race. May get 2nd outer with a clean beginning and be the one to beat. RP $4, $5 FF

Dangers:

9.Pimms ‘N’ Pearls 2nd $4 won well two starts back and just didn’t like the wet track next up. Gets in on a winning weight and she races with her down indicating 1400m third up looks ideal now. Trainer was happy with her in training.

1.Bruegel in Nigel Tiley’s stable now and maps to get an ideal run.

3.Raposa Rapida 1st $2.20 drawn out and gets 3kgs off. Wide draw could be ok if he snags and they go hard.

Race 6

The speed map shows Donna Anne Billy and Le Castile likely to share the early pace with Rangipo and Camino Rocoso coming across and a moderate to even tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Ronchi had the blinkers go on unbelievably for the first time last start. With all his quirks, he needed them on earlier as he showed last start when beginning evenly, settling 7th outer and kept finding when balanced up running 32.98, 21.86 and 11.33 closing sectionals in a fast time. The 1400m suits even better and he strikes a slightly weaker field with the 2kgs off. he maps to settle midfield again off an even tempo and does look well placed to get back into winning form. RP $4.50, $7 FF

Dangers:

8.Pasabahce ran a career best Formpro Rating  race here two starts beating a handy field, then he matched that Formpro Rating of 109 at Gisborne giving the winner 6kgs. Drawn to get into the trail here and if the inside is ok, Billy tends to roll off on the turn, so Trudy can take  full advantage of that and drive him through. Opened $19 and soon moved into $15 FF

11.Hanger disappointed a bit last start but he did close late in the slower inner ground indicating that 1400m is what he needs now. Gets in on 53kgs as the rider can’t claim the full 3kgs. Negative is he maps to get back 9th outer and with the tempo favouring runners ahead of him, he will need a better tempo to win or the inside to be off.

6.Donna Anne Billy is likely to get a softish lead and has won here over 1400m leading all the way and gets in on 51kgs so should be in the finish.

Race 7

The speed map shows Calligraphy likely to get a soft lead and a moderate tempo likely suiting the first four runners.

Confidence: 3/5

2.Calligraphy rates 2 lengths clear of these after weight adjustments and maps to get a winning run in front. She ran a big race fresh up over 1400m at Ellerslie over 1400m in a stronger Open handicap. Then she ran a top 5th behind Volpe Veloce over 1400m finishing hard. This is easier and the trainer Ross McCarroll said, ” All of her runs have been good, she has just had no luck. She is likely to lead or trail here and I think she is the best horse in the field. She would only have to reproduce that last run and she should win it.” RP $2.00, $2.50 FF

Dangers:

5.Kings Cross flashed home late last start after getting well back. Likely to be a few lengths off Calligraphy again and with a moderate tempo likely, it makes his job harder so $2.70 Ff is too short.

7.Inscription 1st $7  “She’s one that is working really well but would probably prefer a little bit of rain.”

Race 8

The speed map shows a few going forward and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5

7.Misstumutt 1st $3.20   had the blinkers go at the right time last start and she drew away to win easily. It compared strongly against the R65 race the same day as they ran to the 600m mark 0.71 seconds quicker than them and came home quicker by .55 seconds for a 1.26 better race time! And she was strong on the line and her last 600m compared well with shorter races on the day. So the step to this weaker R65 race looks well within her capabilities and she is right at her peak. Drawn to settle midfield and with a clear track into it, looks well placed at the weights to beat these. RP $2.70, $3.60FF

Dangers:

1.Jimmy Rocket drops in class with 2kgs off.

Trentham

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

4.Comeback  1st $2.20 bolted in for us last week. gets 4kgs off again and should be hard to beat despite being up in class and distance. RP $2.80, $2.90 FF

Dangers:

5.Power O’Hata  if on her game can beat Comeback.

Race 2

1.Equinox 1st $1.50  is just looking for some decent ground and should get it down the chute but in the straight is the query. If Dead 4 or better in the straight he will be very hard to beat.

Dangers:

5.In Fashion  tough win last start. Drawn to get all favours.

Race 3

1.Sampson 1st $2.90  looks well placed here at the weights but doesn’t win too often.

5.Soleseifiei  is a tough stayer and will be suited by a slog.

8.Special Light just keeps going at the one pace and could lead them a merry chase.

Race 4

2.Neeson  won well two back and had a  bit to offer when held up last start.

9.Awesome Al won well last start and with a good ride can be right in this.

10.Pep Torque  1st $13  back on a track she loves with a light weight are plusses.

Race 5

The speed map shows Brimm likely to lead with Tinkilicious and La Bella Rosa looking to trail. The tempo looks to be a moderate  one and may suit runners in the first half. Concert Hall maps to get back.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Livin On A Prayer  closed off strongly over 1200m in good sectionals in Open class last start looking like she wants more ground now. She can settle about 6th outer and be in the right spot to lead somewhere in the straight and fight it out with Concert Hall. RP $4.50, $6.50 Ff

Dangers:

3.Concert Hall 1st $1.80  bolted in last start rating an FR of of 110 which is the best of any of these over this distance. Set weights suit her but the moderate tempo is a concern as she is likely to have to snag or risk getting caught wide in the open. They weren’t winning out wide here last week which makes it even more of a concern, so the $2.30 Ff is too short.

10.Brimm  could get a softish lead here and hold on for a place.

5.Tinkilicious  should get a cosy trip and be a place chance from there.

Race 6

The Speed Map shows plenty of early speed from seven runners ensuring at least and even tempo suiting all runners.

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

8.Vigor Winner  2nd $2.40  has looked very good winning his two races. Still learning but maps to get a good run off the good speed which will help him get into a good rhythm and with his closing power get through these. RP $6 , $8.50 in from $10 FF

Dangers:

1.Dawn Patrol is a good horse drawn wide. If he can get in 3 wide with cover, he has to be right in this.

11.She’s A Thief maps to get a cosy trip and if the inside is ok, can be in this.

13.Miss Labasa just didn’t see the middle distance out last start. back to 1600m with a good trip on the pace will giver her the chance to show how good she is.

 

 

Race 7

The speed map shows a fast early pace with Ferrando, Passing Shot and Vinnie’s Volley looking to lead or share it. So na fast pace likely suiting closers.

Confidence: 1/5

8.Sassa Corbaro won easily last start and has form in Australia. Steps up in class here but the good tempo will suit her.

5.Volks Lightning  1st $9  just needs some luck for a change and is weighted to be right in this.

4.Princess Keruru  won well last start getting all favours. Should get a good run and be right in this.

3.Passing Shot, if not taken on by Ferrando, can hold on for a place.

Race 8

The Speed map shows seven runners going forward but no obvious leader so a moderate tempo is likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

5.Sentimental Miss 1st $21 two starts back impressed at Te Rapa coming from last to run second off a moderate tempo running the fastest last 600m of the race beating Queen of Diamonds and closed hard on Imelda mary, the winner. Then next up, drew wide, snagged, got back on the inner and ran home ok amongst others. This time, the blinkers go on as does Lisa Allpress. She should be able to land midfield inner and do no work. From there, she just needs to get out in time to have a good crack at these. RP $8, $15 FF

Dangers:

1.Imelda Mary  from the draw will do little work and she has shown when she can get that type of run, she can win.

2.Queen Of Diamonds  won the Lowland very well and should be able to work forward gradually with the long run to the first bend and be in the right place.

3.Pinmedown  got all favours at Ellerslie but won strongly. Needs a good ride from out there but has a bit of class edge over many of these.

 

Race 9

The Speed map shows  speed from My Calendar Girl, Deerfield and Kapinos out wide which should ensure an even tempo suiting all runners.

Confidence: 3/5

9.Lady Rudolph on debut came from last to run 2nd on a heavy track running the fastest last 600m of the day. Then she bolted in at Otaki also running the fastest last 600m of the day. After a freshener, she ran at Awapuni, got back off a moderate tempo but charged late to run third, running the third fastest last 600m of the day. The best two were in a 1200m walk and sprint. So she is fitter for this and maps to get back but the map says there should be enough speed up front for her to get over these and win well. RP $2.00, $2.50 FF  Trainer Robbie Patterson said, ” She has definitely improved with that run at Awapuni and you would think by this time of day the inside will be off, so that should suit her. She took a while to get balanced up at Awapuni but with the big track here, that will suit her nicely. ”

Dangers: 

4.Deerfield 1st $6.10 is a nice horse stepping to 1400m. Probably won’t get it soft up front but if he does, is the one the Lady has to run down.

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!