Update 11.35 a.m. – Bigtime Mila looks well placed to lead all the way at the dogs – suggested multi with Heirloom at Otaki returns $72.50 for every $10
Race 2 12.25 p.m.
2.Bigtime Mila missed the jump after looking at the replays, early sectionals and other info, she looks well placed here to repeat her win two starts back when she led all the way in a time equaling or bettering many of the Class 1 races the same day. She has two of the three best opening sectionals and the best closing sectional. The one dog dives to the rail and the 3 dog likes to stay out. 4 jumps well but is weak and the 5 dog likes to run wide. She normally begins cleanly so should get every chance to lead and win again. RP $1.90, $2.50 Ff
They had 7mm of rain last night to bring it back to a Dead 6 and 2mm are forecast for this morning, so likely to get to a slow track. I’ll post an update by noon.
Bet of the Day race 8 10.Heirloom $3.00 FF 4th
Value bet of the Day Race 6 7.Bae Corp $6.50 Ff 4th
2.Welcome Back ran a strong third here on debut on a slow track. Fresh up he closed off strongly in a good speed rating on a Dead track. He looked a definite improver and the Dead to slow track today looks ideal. RP $2.50, $2.70 Ff
8.Shebringsmerubies trialed well on a wet in what turned out to be a strong trial at Te teko on a wet track. By Sebring plus her action says a wet track is ideal so she does look a realistic chance. best guide is if the money does or doesn’t come for her.
4.Lincoln Green won his trial well but has a better track action.
7.Enduring Love game second last start and action says a slow track should be ok. Drawn to get a good run. RP $2.40, $2 FF
3.Tennessee Rose two strong seconds and actions says she will relish a slow track.
7.Magic Monkey trialed well and has a wet track action.
1.Boutonniere good third on debut and a slow track should be ok.
6.Hydroexpress won her trial strongly with a good turn of foot- slow track ok.
7.Bae Corp fought on gamely second up over 1600m. Her action says she will reslish a wet track and drawn wide which could be an easset by this time of day. Gets 2kgs off and looks a nice eachway bet. RP $4.50, $6.50 FF
5.Torque Time good third two back and game second last start. If gets to a genuine slow though it won’t help.
6.Man Oh Man fitter and 1600m suits better.
1.Almo Costo run down after getting a soft time 2nd outer on debut. Slow track may be ok but $3.40 FF is too short.
The Dead 6 track with rain about has made me flip on the order of preference.
The speed maps shows Nom Du Beel likely to be fresh and a bit keen and lead. All In Stitches from the good draw should make the most of it and trail. Galway Lil drawn wide should look to slide over to 2nd outer or may get caught wide. Cead Mile Failte from the inside has the winkers off and ear covers on so stop her over-racing, so may look to take a sit three back inner and get her to settle. A moderate tempo likely suiting runners in the first half.
Confidence: 1/5 now with the Dead to slow track.
10.Cead Mile Failte 1st $6 in from $10 FF was too keen last start. Winkers come off and ear covers go on. She has an action suitable for a slow track so dropping back in class with the gear changes which could help her settle better, she looks well placed. RP $5
Dangers in order:
8.Veneto was held up at a vital stage last start but just battled when out. Rated well in a handy R72 field before that. Likely to get back and the tempo likely to be against. But the positive is she will relish a Dead to slow track more than most. Ran a solid finishing third here on a Slow track behind Atlanta Peach. RP $6.00
9.Galway Lil did ok last start on an even tempo and leading 600m out to run 4th, beaten by Hypatia and Katiemarie. Fitter and gets 3kgs off. Fitter and won third up this time last year. Her action is ok for a slow track and she ran home strongly for second last campaign on a slow track. RP $8
6.All In Stitches rated FR 103 in January in a harder R72 race after leading and getting beaten by real beach. last start drew wide and got squeezed up, caught wide so snagged to the rear and they only ran a moderate tempo up front ( 12.83 200m to the 600m.) She improved wide 700m out as they sprinted up front and on the line was doing the best of anything. Drawn to get an ideal run or may even lead if the others show no interest and be hard to beat. He gets 2kgs off which put him on a winning weight just 1kg over the minimum. A slow track will not suit though.
7.Hypatia did very well last start when caught 3 wide in the open to the turn, but kept finding to run fourth rating FR 99 a career best run. Since her smart win at Wairoa beating three subsequent winners, she has improved her FR at each start. based on that last rating, she should be able to rate at least one more length to 100. Maps to get an ideal run and top rider Samantha Collett will be keen to redeem herself after that last ride. Negative is she has not finished it off in her last three starts on Slow and heavy tracks.
4.The Seagull won well on debut over 1600m beating four subsequent winners. After a break was 3 back inner off an on pace race and ran home strongly for third behind Guillada ( 2nd outer in running) who won next up in R72 grade. Then second up got back, and when unwinding was held up at a vital stage and looked to have a bit to offer. he isa strong 6yo and a middle distance is what he needs now. gets 3kgs off. The negative is he is likely to snag back from the wide draw and will need at least an even tempo which is unlikely, plus it is his first run over ground. He also has a dry track action.
5.Zed Leppelin won second up last campaign getting a very soft lead and had a weight advantage beating a weaker Highweight field in the slowest of the three 2100m races. Likely to go forward and gets 4kgs off. 9 years old now and likely to need this with a hurdles campaign in mind again.
1.Nom Du Beel won well over hurdles two starts back. Very likely to need this fresh up and with top weight, should find s few too fit and fast on a Dead track.
10.Heirloom almost won last start at her first go at a middle distance. Fitter for that and her action and breeding ( out of an Al Akbar mare) suggests she will relish the wet ground. Drawn out which should be a plus and gets 2kgs off. RP $2.50, $3.00 FF
4.Vincenzo Lorenzo ran home strongly last start over 1600m. Big fella who will relsih a wet track and looks the main danger.