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Thursday preview below

Update 2.53: Rainman looks very ready. Johnson will need to be at his best to get him out wider in the straight where the better going is, but he should be able to with the long run down the back straight and with them splitting up from the 600 metres. Just couldn’t get out wider when he had to.

Update: Miss Brahmos definitely needs the run. Dreaming Easy is very fit and nice and relaxed. The winner of the  first came down the centre and the leaders slowed near the inner, so it looks very good for her to get over Vice Marshall and have a very good chance of winning as well. Jumped well and relaxed nicely and was just too fast and fit with that weight advantage as well.

Update 11.59 a.m.:

Race 2

Confidence: 5/5

Dreaming Easy $1.85 to beat Vice Marshall and is another quality bet. RP $1.30, $1.85 Value Staking Plan says $1.85/1.3 = 1.42, $1.42 x 3 = 4.26 rounded to 4.3,  so 4.3 units on at $1.85 = 8 units returned

When Dreaming easy won here two starts back he ran 1.14.11 and on the same day on the minimum of 54kgs, when Vice Marshall ran 1.15.04, 2kgs over the minimum after getting a good sit 2nd outer and battling for fourth, about 5 lengths slower than Dreaming Easy. So  With Dreaming Easy being on the minimum and Vice Marshall 4kgs over it, Dreaming Easy looks great value at $1.85 head to head on a similar surface.

Good morning there are two well placed runners at Wingatui today and both are Quality bets which I will update 2 minutes before the race.

Otago at Wingatui

An update will be posted by noon.

I have also calculated the recommended units to bet based on the available price and rated price.

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

5.Dreaming Easy won easily two starts back had some gear changes, namely a noseband, which helped her settle much better and allow her to power home and win here over 1200m on a similar Slow 7 surface, in a time faster than the R72 race. Then next start missed the jump by a couple of lengths, got back, was held up for a few strides when looking to improve, switched back to the centre of the track and almost got up giving 4kgs to the winner. This time, she steps up to R72 class but finds the right race on the minimum of 55kgs. Vice Marshall should set at least an even tempo with Lord beaver and Miss Brahmos behind her. Dreaming Easy can just bide her time 4th or 5th. With the uphill finish here, it really does find them out with fitness, so Miss Brahmos, the $2.10 favourite, who looked like she would definitely improve after an average trial third, will be in real danger of being run down by a strong finishing and very fit Dreaming easy with 2kgs less on her back. RP $2.50, $4.20 FF Recommended bet based on the Value Staking Plan 4.2/2.5= 1.68, 1.68 x 2 = 3.36 or 3.4 units rounded. 14.3 units returned

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

1.Rainman last start, third up, he settled well at Riccarton and unwound hard for second hitting the line strongly in a personal time still 3 lengths quicker than the R72 race later in the day over the same distance. The side winkers went on last start too and they stay on for this. He ran the second fastest last 600m behind the winner. The start before over 1200m he found the line nicely. he maps to settle midfield  So fourth up from the Parsons stable he looks set to settle midfield behind an even tempo and with Chris Johnson up, should get his chance to get over these. RP $2.30, $3.10 FF  Value Staking Plan  (3.1/2.3=1.35 x 2 = 2.69 or 2.7 units rounded. )

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!