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Wednesday preview below

Update:

Head to Head ( Just the one ) Suggested multi with bet of the day Dance Card now at $2.10 FF $40.90 for every $10 bet. Yes

Race 4 Bravissimo $1.95 ( RP $1.50 )  to beat Quality Prevails. See preview comments for Bravissimo below. She rates 4 lengths clear of QP after weight adjustments and maps to get a better run. QP maps to get caught wide if she goes forward and will have to cover more ground than Bravissimo in running. QP won well two back here but had a soft trail and won in a slow speed rating and just battled next up here in a slow speed rating as well after getting all favours. Yes- worked out well.

Matamata

Good morning,

Some interesting fields today with some nice horses emerging. With many even fields, the Head to Heads may be the way to go, so I’ll post an update by 11.45 a.m. with any recommended ones and a multi. No Quality bets so far unless a Head to Head throws up one or two.

The Quality Bets did well again last week with a 19.6 unit outlay for a 47.4 unit return and a 27.8 units net profit. That was based on using the Value Staking Plan. We have been using a level stakes $100 plan on the Quality bets since last November for a very healthy profit, but the Value Staking Plan is one I use on much of my betting so we’ll stick with that using $30 units as that is a fair comparison with a 4100 level stakes plan with the average bet being around 3 units in the Value Staking plan, especially over the next few months, as I know it is the selections that we can get very good value on that we will make our profits on, not the sub $2 chances unless they are rated much shorter than the price available. Any queries, please ask.

Suggested late quaddie for $32.40 for 10%

R6   1, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13
R7   9, 10, 16
R8    2, 14
R9    1, 6, 7, 9, 12, 14

 

Bet of the day Race 1 8.Dance Card $2.30 FF $1.70

Value bet of the day Race 8 2.Soroc $4.80 FF

Other good value bets: Race 4 4.Bravissimo $8.50 Ff and 6.Holsty in race 5 looks set to win on debut and has been thumped with bookies.

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

8.Dance Card ran a strong 2nd here last start and the the third horse, Te Akau Dragon has won since. She seems to strengthened up now and looks set to peak here. Drawn to get a good run on a moderate pace and Leith Innes is riding in top form, and the opposition is weak, so this well bred filly looks set to break through. RP $2.30, $2.30 FF

Race 2

A tricky race with a few chances. The head to head may be the way to go.

Race 3

Another tricky race with many first starters and trials form to line up, so the head to head will make it easier with just two runners to line up.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

4.Bravissimo  has the strongest Formpro Ratings here and rates on top after weight adjustments. He ran a 0.7L 3rd to Le Castille in an R72 at Tauranga, then 3rd to Ardrossan and Dama Zorro at Te Aroha in an R72 over 1200m. He ran on well fresh up after beginning awkwardly and ran home in 11.16, 4th fastest of the race out wide. This is easier and he has drawn to get a good run behind an even speed. RP $5.00, $8.50 FF

The early money has come for 8.She’s A Goddess from a punting stable. She led and was run down last start here after some hard runs. The sectional splits say she was a tired filly, so they freshened her up and she will be stronger for this as well. She gets 4kgs off and maps to be 2nd outer or lead and as long as they don’t take her on too much, which may happen, she looks the main danger.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

The money has come for 6.Holsty after opening at good overs of $6.50 and has some four figure bets placed on him. If you saw his trial here you can see why. If Sam had flicked the reins just a little he would have won. The heat time was slow but they didn’t go hard. he looks the part and after going through the main rivals trial form and race form, he just needs a decent run and from gate 7, he should get that with Sam Collett back on him and knowing him better. RP $2.70, $3.80 in from $6.50 after deductions as well

Race 6

A few chances here for the first leg of the quaddie. Even the high priced runner, Cyclone Sophie at $23 Ff, trialed well and has the breeding and weight to upset. The Head to head may be the best way to go and the field for the quaddie.

Race 7

10.Honfleur finally gets the draw that can allow her to win. She has been beaten with impatient rides and tempos, so with Vinnie Colgan up, who has the patience to come with a well timed finish, she can get a well deserved win. RP $3.60, $4.60 FF

16.Matter Of Fact  has shown the ability to win a maiden. No luck last start and third up over 1400m suits but the wide draw doesn’t.

9.Don’t Lie To Me would probably have won fresh up but was held up till too late. Early money has come for her.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

2.Soroc rated 108 when he led all the way at Awapuni third up after a strong second, 2nd up. he ran a good race at Te Aroha fresh up in a stronger R72 race rating an FR of 102. He just needs to rate 103 to win this with the 4kgs off which he can do easily. Drawn out and the 4kg claimer is Chelsea Burdan who rides very well. Drawn out but maps to go forward and get a good run on the pace and with 56.5kgs, gets his chance from his second start in the very good trainer Glenn Old’s stable. RP $3.50, $4.80 Ff

14.Bridal Veil  goes well here and drawn to get a good run. Soroc may just be too strong for her over the last 100m though.

Race 9

An open race to finish the quaddie on.

Live chances in race number order are:

1-6-7-9-12-14

 

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!