The full preview of Ellerslie can be found here with an update posted by noon with any further bets, including any Head to Heads worth having.
With a maximum of eighteen runners going round on what will be a decent surface. the Manco Easter does look to favour the bookies. Favourite is The Mitigator at $4.50 and unless the inside is playing hot, he is no value at $4.50FF. That does create some value in others which I’ve detailed below. The full preview of Ellerslie will be posted by 5 p.m. along with Heads Up, where you could get the chance to win the $5,000 multi collect. In the meantime, don’t eat too many of those Easter eggs.
The speed map shows many runners looking to go forward right across the field. That should ensure a strong first 400 metres and at least an even tempo from there with runners caught wide wanting to go forward, suiting all runners.
Confidence: 1/5 in an open race. The Mitigator is no value at $4.50 so it does reveal some value runners. Any track bias or pattern will influence the betting.
6.Watch This Space was an unlucky second to Volpe Veloce at Tauranga when held up and charged late on the inner and was lengths clear soon after the post. Behind him was The Mitigator and Endless Drama. He rated FR114 ( Formpro Rating 114) in that and with only 3kgs over the minimum to carry, and rates on top after weight adjustments over 1600m. He won here two years ago in 1.34.34 with 59kgs, 6kgs over the minimum and he is in just as good a form as then. With 55kgs, he needs to match his last start FR of 114 to win this and he rated 115 when when he was 3.6L behind Melody Belle in the Group 1 at Te Rapa at WFA recently. He maps to settle midfield one off which will be ideal. Wayne Hillis is a very good trainer and Vinnie Colgan knows him better after that first ride on him at Tauranga. RP ( Rated Price ) $7, $16 and $4.80 FF
16.Dama Zorro is the up and comer. Her last two runs sectionally have been the best on the day. She really seems to be relishing her racing too. In her last eight starts she has increased her Formpro Rating at each of them, which is very rare. Her last start FR was 111. So she needs to rate 112 to win this with 52kgs which is one more length than she rated last start. She has drawn out but she seems better being allowed to relax early then using her superior speed from the turn to the 200 to challenge them and then sustain her run to the line, and the light weight will help her do that. She opened at $18 has been backed into $16 early.
11.The Mitigator got a soft win last start setting a slow pace. He was run down late here with the same weight in the Rich Hill Mile rating 112 and has matched that rating in his last three starts. He just needs to match that to be right in it, especially if he can get a breather midrace. $4.50 is too short though.
1.Endless Drama had to reel off the fastest last 600m of the day last week at Hastings over 1200m to grab second. He maps to be three back inner and from there, is a realistic chance despite the 59kgs. If the inside is off though, it won’t help.
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