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Saturday preview below

Highlight was the $7,905 quaddie being struck at Ellerslie

Update: Glinda Goodwitch has moved in the market to $2.40 and Stephen Marsh made her the best chance from his stable today and he already won two races. The track is playing fairly and she looks nice and relaxed and ready to win. Never yelped- probably had enough and slow tempo against.

Update: Head to Heads and Pete’s $5k multi bet is here

Ellerslie race 7 Watch This Space $1.90 to beat Big Mike. See below for Watch This Space preview comments. Big Mike last week was allowed to relax off the pace and worked home like he needs more ground. His best form is on wet tracks over more ground, so Watch This Space has a definite advantage here. RP $1.40, $1.90 Yes- got out to $2.

Suggested multi with Race 1 2.Santa Catarina to win $1.70 FF, Race 4 8.Glinda Goodwitch $2.60 FF and H2H with Watch This Space $1.90. A $10 bet returns $83.90

Update at noon with any Head to heads etc and Pete J’s $5k multi bet

Ellerslie

Heads Up can be heard here

Some tricky fields today. Glinda Goodwitch looks the only value of all the favourites today at $2.60. I rate rate her $190 chance and that could have been lower as she rates 6 lengths clear after weight adjustments on what they have all done so far. She is the only quality so far. There may be some value in the Head to Heads which I will post by noon.

 

Bet of the day Ellerslie Race 4 8.Glinda Goodwitch $2.60 FF ( Quality bet updated 2 minutes before the start. ) 4.1 units bet at $30 per unit = $123 win at $2.60

Value bet of the Day Ellerslie Race 6 1.Bobby Dee $7.50 FF 3rd $2.70 

Speed map Special Ellerslie Race 1 2.Santa Catarina $1.85 FF 1st $1.65 

Sneaky of the day Ellerslie Race 7 6.Watch This Space $17 FF 2nd $5 

The Money Shot’s best sports bet is the Warriors – 5.5 at $1.80 ( Played tonight at 7.35 p.m. )

Suggested late Quaddie at Ellerslie for $30 for 5% in a tough one. Yes $7905

R5    1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 12
R6    1, 6, 10, 13, 15
R7     1, 6, 11, 16
R8     1, 9, 10, 13, 16

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

2.Santa Catarina 1st $1.65 last start sweated up badly before the start but was still a class or three above them. Her time was 3 lengths better than Riding The waves on the same day and she can only improve off that. Drawn to get a cosy trail and looks the one to beat. RP $1.90, $1.90 FF

Dangers: 

1.Riding the Wave  won well last start and is a strong 3yo. The harder they go the better his chances but on the figures, Santa has the definite edge.

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5 A tricky race with many different formlines.

6.Nothing Trivial gets in on a winning weight and has won many races. He should get all favours and be an upset chance. RP $7, $16 FF

Dangers:

5.Za Za Gabor is a good mare and could lead and put a break on these.

1.Savapak 1st $3.20  got a soft lead last start and was run down. Drawn wide here and with 59kgs is too short at $3.80 FF

3.Misstumut  had her chance last start. Needs a a good ride.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

3.Marzemino 1st $1.60 won strongly last start and is going to win more races. Drawn wide though and with 58kgs, it makes it hard to take the $1.95 FF RP $2.40

Dangers:

1.Save The Date  fresh up will get a good trip off a decent tempo and and has the class to upset the favourite.

9.Memories Only  2nd $3.40  drawn to get a cosy trip and be a place chance at odds.

10.One Bakerstreet with a softish lead could hold on.

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

8.Glinda Goodwitch two starts closed fast late for 2nd with a good stretch late. Then last start in the Group 1 1400m Sire Produce got back to last and ran home in in the fastest last 600m of the race in 33.55. She was hitting the line the best of anything so the step to 1600m looks ideal against a weaker field. Rates at least 6 lengths better than these. RP $1.90, $2.60 FF

Dangers:

5.Shakespeare  was doing his best work late here last start and ran the second fastest last 200m of the race ( 11.51) he will relish the 1600m. Opened $23 and into $16 early.

7.In Fashion  beat Checkers two back and looks like 1600m will suit.

1.Checkers  3rd alongside Glinda two back and Glinda was superior over the last 100 metres.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5 in an open first leg of the Bonus quaddie.

12.Vichy was ridden off the pace last start and really hit the line strongly for third. Gets a nice weight advantage over the favourites. RP $5

Dangers:

3.Creative Genius drawn to lead and if left alone could pinch it.

9.L’Escalier Rose  could be a quick improver. Has the ability if fully fit now.

2.Tightlign 1st $4  has to be a chance if they go hard enough.

1.Kings Cross  was doing his best work late here last start. Drawn better.

4.Project  is ready to peak now after a nice 4th here last start.

Race 6

The speed map shows Blue on Black likely to lead or be outside it with a few looking secure a cosy run in behind. A moderate tempo likely with most runners being midfield or worse runners.

 

1.Bobby Dee 3rd $2.70 tri $1069   put up a top effort in the derby after being 3 wide in the open then working up 2nd outer midrace. Once headed he didn’t give it away for a very brave 6th. Before that he had a tough run as well and stuck on gamely. He rated very strongly as well, so drawn better this time and if he can get a better run, he is a solid eachway chance. RP $4.70, $7 FF

Dangers:

10.Spring Delight  was run down by a very good win by The Chosen One who franked that with a very good run in Sydney. Drawn to get all favours.

6.Lord Arthur 1st $20  did well last start behind Spring Delight as he got too far back in a bit of a sprint home. Drawn to land closer and may be better right handed.

13.Intrigue 2nd $2   bolted in last start and sectionally was very good. Just needs a good run and is a realistic chance being on the up as well.

15.Decadence  was the eye catcher last start powering home. Drawn wide and likely to get back again which will make it tougher.

 

Race 7

The speed map shows many runners looking to go forward right across the field. That should ensure a strong first 400 metres and at least an even tempo from there with runners caught wide wanting to go forward, suiting all runners.

 

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race. The Mitigator is no value at $4.50 ( Got into $3.90 and back to $4.20 )  so it does reveal some value runners. Any track bias or pattern will influence the betting.

6.Watch This Space 2nd $5.90 qu $72   was an unlucky second to Volpe Veloce at Tauranga when held up and charged late on the inner and was lengths clear soon after the post. Behind him was The Mitigator and Endless Drama.  He rated FR114 ( Formpro Rating 114) in that and with only 3kgs over the minimum to carry, and rates on top after weight adjustments over 1600m. He won here two years ago in 1.34.34 with 59kgs, 6kgs over the minimum and he is in just as good a form as then. With 55kgs, he needs to match his last start FR of 114 to win this and he rated 115 when when he was  3.6L behind Melody Belle in the Group 1 at Te Rapa at WFA recently. He maps to settle midfield one off which will be ideal. Wayne Hillis is a very good trainer and Vinnie Colgan knows him better after that first ride on him at Tauranga. RP ( Rated Price ) $7, $16 and $4.80 FF

Dangers:

16.Dama Zorro  is the up and comer. Her last two runs sectionally have been the best on the day. She really seems to be relishing her racing too. In her last eight starts she has increased her Formpro Rating at each of them, which is very rare. Her last start FR was 111. So she needs to rate 112 to win this with 52kgs which is one more length than she rated last start. She has drawn out but she seems better being allowed to relax early then using her superior speed from the turn to the 200 to challenge them and then sustain her run to the line, and the light weight will help her do that. She opened at $18 has been backed into $16 early.

11.The Mitigator got a soft win last start setting a slow pace. He was run down late here with the same weight in the Rich Hill Mile rating 112 and has matched that rating in his last three starts. He just needs to match that to be right in it, especially if he can get a breather midrace. $4.50 is too short though.

1.Endless Drama 1st $10  had to reel off the fastest last 600m of the day last week at Hastings over 1200m to grab second. He maps to be three back inner and from there, is a realistic chance despite the 59kgs. If the inside is off though, it won’t help.

Race 8

A tough one to finish on.

Confidence: 1/5

9.Takeitlikeaman was a close second here last start and gets 3kgs off. needs a good ride but looks good value at $17

Dangers: 

1.Anything But ran second to a good horse last start. Strong win before that.

16.Anaceta was unlucky here when held up. If right can win.

13.Eleanor Rigby  with a good tempo can win – strong win two back off a good tempo.

 

 

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!