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Thursday preview posted

Good morning,

Some even fields today at both venues but Rock On Wood is a horse that I’m confident will win a Group 1 within the next 12 months. He ran 4th in a Group 1 at Trentham in the Levin Stakes and he is a much stronger and mature horse now. He drops his head which allows him to conserve his awesome finishing power and he should put these away today on 53kgs and with the track favouring runners coming down the centre and wider by that time of day. I’ll post an update by 12.30 p.m. with any head to heads or other bets.

Race 7

The speed map shows Shadow Fox and He’s Cavalier looking to cross and lead with Meeska Mooska ( if she starts) and maybe Woodsman hunting out to get a good spot. There look to be quite a few looking to settle handy so that should ensure an even tempo suiting all runners. Last meeting here they were getting out wider to win so it should set up ideally for Rock On Wood.

 

Confidence: 4/5

9.Rock On Wood  showed his potential when winning fresh up in a very good speed rating running  a fast last 600m and 200m when only getting out late.. Then second up over 1600m he had to be very, very good to win off a moderate tempo from last running the third fastest last 600m all day. They ran the first 800m 5.09 seconds slower ( 30 lengths) than the last 800m. his 200m split from the 400m to the 200m was 10.32 which was easily the fastest all day – only top horses can do that.  He will snag back and with an even tempo likely, he should get his chance to get a track into it, or may try cutting the corner like last time. With just 53kgs he is simply faster than many of these over the last 600 metres and just needs the gaps at the right time to beat these. He is a Group 1 horse in the making and being the youngest at 4 years old in the field, racing against older horses that have been going round a while, he can only get beaten by bad luck. RP $1.80, $3.50. he has been backed in from $3.50 to $3.30 FF 5.5 units using the value staking plan.

Dangers:

2.Dolcetto ran a career best Formpro Rating last start of 118 with 60kgs over 2200m. He drops back to 1600m here and has a 7-4-2 record on the course. Drawn to get a good run.

11.William Wallace hit the line hard at Tauranga when fifth in what has turned out to be a very strong form race with Nicolleta (7th)  and Endless Drama (4th)  both winning big races out of it.

1.Shadows Cast  won the Group 1 Thorndon over 1600m with 58kgs and with a good run, should be in it.

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Good luck,

Neil

Enquiries to Neil at formpro@formpro.co.nz or text or phone 027 352 6402

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!