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Wednesday preview below

Update 11.15 a.m. No Further bets. Back tomorrow morning by 8.45 a.m.. I don’t usually preview South Island meetings but if there are one or two value bets, I’ll post them. There may be one or two bets at the greyhounds as well.

Posted Wednesday 8.45 a.m.

The Wanganui track is currently a Slow 9 and the rail is out 5 metres. Track manager Mark Buckley told us, “With the first three races chewing up the inside, they’ll gradually work their way out to the outside of the straight which does have better going. It will be puggy with fine weather forecast.”

One thing I find very frustrating for punters at CD meetings like this, is the lack of video coverage of the Levin Jumpouts, which is really a trials meeting with 27 heats run on April 17th! I find it unbelievable that they aren’t made to video and publish them. Especially when turnover is so vital to their very existence. Without seeing them you just can’t punt seriously into meetings like this in the Central Districts. No punter wants to hear a trainer say just after their horse has won paying $20 that it bolted in at a recent jumpout there! Anyway, that’s my rant for the week. You can see the last jumpout results here in alphabetical order.

For those new to the site, races I rate with a Confidence factor of 3/5, 4/5 or 5/5 are the races to bet into with more confidence with the selections. Races rated 1/5 and 2/5 have many chances in the race or the form doesn’t allow us to bet with any confidence.

The first three jumps races have many fresh runners that we have no idea how ready they so advantage bookies. They are good to watch but not to good to bet into, so pass on those races.

The Head to Heads may reveal some value if the bookies get it wrong with the strong bias likely late.

No Quality bets so far today. That is when I have 3/5 or stronger confidence and we can get decent overs on the rated price. e.g. there were three last week. Rock On Wood, Rated Confidence 4/5 RP $1.80 and was available at $3.30 FF. Inscription Confidence: 3/5 RP $2.40, $3.20 FF. And that lovely mare, Supera 3/5, RP $2 and $2.90 FF.

Bet of the day Race 8 9.Baby Face $2.10 FF 2nd

Value bet of the day Race 6 7.Hinepara $12 FF

Speed map Special Race 5 5.Glorious Ocean $2.00 FF 1st $2

Multi of the day Race 4 1.Wicklow $2.40 Ff into race 8 9.Baby Face $2.10 Ff $10 returns $50.40

Update at noon with any head to head or other bets.

Suggested quaddie for 10% costing $25.20: Missed

R5    1, 5
R6    1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 12
R7      1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 13
R8      3, 9

Wanganui

Of the three jumps races, if someone twisted my arm up my back and said what would you put $10 on, I’d respond with Guy Fox at $2.90 Ff in the second, but only if they twisted hard enough.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

1.Wicklow 2nd $1.30 tri $230   showed that he has the ability to at least win a maiden when running home hard here two starts back in the fastest last 600m 34.81 of the three 1350m races on the day. He was really getting into his work late too. So the 1600m next up looked ideal but was caught 3 wide at the back in the open, but once again, closed off hard late for third. He looks every bit like a middle distance horse and strikes the right field to break through. Negatives are it is an Amateur riders race (but has one of the better riders). And he steps to a middle distance for the first time. So $2.40 FF is too short for a Quality bet but there may be one or two others that he can be multied into tomorrow.  RP ( Rated Price) $2.70

Dangers:

4.Kion 3rd $2  ran a very good fourth here on debut in a similar race in the slower part of the track. Natural stayer but lack of race fitness could tell. One to watch for next up.

12.Acacia  seems to find one or two better often and is likely to find the same again here.

6.Princeville 1st $12 ran on strongly two starts back then was caught wide and a bit fresh  at Blenheim.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5 First leg of the quaddie. Glorious Dream  looks the obvious one in the first leg. The second and third legs are not so obvious so go wide in those. Baby Face is set to win and the money has come for her.

5.Glorious Ocean 1st $2 qu $3.50  has run two very good races. Two starts back sat 3 wide in the open and didn’t give it away behind three good horses. Then last start fought hard for 2nd to Polly Grey who is a nice horse. Fitter now so third up from the Stephen Marsh stable with Lisa Allpress Up she looks well placed. Drawn to get the right run. Early money has come for it as well. RP $2.50, $2.20 FF in from $2.50 Ff

Dangers:

1.King Farouk 2nd $1.60  won his recent trial well 2nd outer and wasn’t pushed right it to beat Duke Of Plumpton who won at Blenheim last week. Drawn wide which will help.

10.Super Girl ran 2nd to The Chosen One which is not bad form! Beaten by a moderate tempo when back last start. Gets 2kgs off and fitter now.

11.Explosive Roc in its last trial almost led all of the way with a good wet track action.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5 in an open leg of the quaddie. Go wide.

1.Seaaprince 1st  $3.50  did well here on debut fighting well for second over 1200m. Up to 1360m looks ideal now as he is a big fella with a good wet track action. Lisa Allpress knows him well now and drawn out which will help. RP $4, $3.60 FF

Dangers:

7.Hinepara ran two very good races last campaign. One here when back on the inner and did very well to get up for fourth in a similar track condition as today. Beaten by a good track fresh up. Gets 3kgs off.

9.Freccia D’Oro good run on debut here when hitting line late. Big mare and put in a very tough race last start so must have a big opinion of her. Has to be in quaddies.

3.Manolo looked to have the ability to win a maiden in the wet last campaign. Nice galloper and will be ready to go.

5.Miss Freelove had her chance last start. Freshened up but looks beatable against some of these. Won a recent invisible Levin Jumpout. Currently $3.20 FF which is too short especially with an inside draw.

8.Punta Mita probably went it’s eat race fresh up last campaign here and freshened up for this. Place chance.

12.Kiwi Princess ran a good 4th on debut in a good form race. Every chance fresh up but early money is on which indicates decent improvement from the Gray stable.

Race 7

The Speed Map shows Thatz Louie and Hingis looking to lead and a few looking to get in behind ensuring an even tempo. Bias should be well established to the outside by now so wide draws are a must.

Confidence: 2/5 Yes Boy is the $4 favourite but up in class, has folded on a wet track here from a suitable wide run and is second up, so no value at $4 Ff. It really is a field job but I’ll see if I can narrow it down a little!

7.Tipping Point  goes well fresh with a win and a second placing. But both were off trial runs. He has had a run at the two invisible Levin Jumpouts for no placings though so will be ready to go again fresh up and the wide draw will be an asset. RP $5, $4.50 in from $5 FF

Dangers:

9.Sasanqua  won strongly two back with a good wet track action and found the field a bit strong last start on a Good track. Drops to 52.5kgs and if she can get to the right part, is a chance.

4.Grinner  has the best Formpro Ratings of any of these but over longer distances. Nice trial finish from last recently and drawn wide with 3kgs off are both plusses.

3.Yes Boy has three negatives against her: second up, up in class  and faded out on a wet track here last campaign, so no value at $4 FF

5.Dream Dancer is capable of winning dropping back in class. When in the right mood she can blow them away.

1.Magic Ivan  if they went hard, could swamp them fresh up- he has some strong closing sectionals to his name and gets 2kgs off.

13.Tipperary Mary fresh up with Lisa Allpress on is a chance- rates 3rd after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings on a wet track.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

9.Baby Face ( scratched from a harder race on Saturday for this )  second up last start got back, used a fair bit working wide from the 600m to the turn at Rotorua, but still kept closing strongly for second on a similar surface as today’s. She will relish the step to 1600m third up and has drawn wide which will be a real advantage by this time of day. Samantha Collett jumps on and she looks the one to beat with her race fitness edge against her own age group. RP $2.50, $2.40 Ff

Dangers:

3.Rely On Me is the interesting runner as he found the line well in all three of his runs last campaign with the last being at Ellerslie in a stronger 3yo race finding the line the best of the unplaced runners in the fifth fastest last 200 metres. In his recent quiet trial at Foxton he got back on the inner and had no where to go finishing full of running. He looks like a stayer but 1600m fresh up will suit in a race where it will suit him from a wide draw.

4.Off Shaw  won his last two trials well. The last leading all the way with a good wet track action. Likely to go forward and be wide on the pace in the right place, and is the one Baby Face will have to run down.

1.Welcome Back  fitter after two good placings. Lisa Allpress will give him every chance from the wide draw. 1st $6 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!