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Wednesday preview below

Update 4.35 Waruna looks well and ready to win. They have come for 2.Julian Rock after two good runs. He tends to miss the jump though and from his wide draw he will have to go forward or snag. Waruna nearly always pings the gates and should land in the first four and the way she puts her head down and gives it everything, she should win. Missed after getting too far back

Update 12.12 Pinultimate looks ready and the inside is ok. Matt Cameron replaces Opie who is overweight. Should lead or sit outside it and be too good. 1st $1.85 and ridden to the script for an easy win.

Update 10.26 a.m.

No head to heads at any value but there is a well placed runner at Canterbury Sydney detailed below:

Canterbury Park

Race 4 ( 4.40 p.m. NZ time) 

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet updated 4.38 p.m.

6.Waruna is a good mare who looks well placed here third up to win. Closed off strongly last start for second in a good Speed rating. She won over this distance at Kensington on a Good 3 in a good speed rating sitting 3 wide in the open showing her usual determination to win. She has a good action and maps to land in the first four on a moderate tempo. With the 2kgs off, she looks very well placed third up here to make it 5 wins from 12 starts. RP $2.80, $4 FF

Recommended multi with Pinultimate returns $80 for every $10 bet.

Matamata

The rail is out 4m and at the last meeting here it was true on a Dead 4 on a fine day and they won from in front, behind and off the pace. Races were nearly all tempo related, which most races are, so if we can correctly nail the tempo then we are going to avoid backing losers and hopefully get a couple of winners at nice overs. Today we have a dead 6 with a fine day forecast.

The four runners below all look well placed with Pinultimate the only Quality bet. I’ll post another update by noon with any head to head or other bets.

Enjoy the ride.

Bet of the day Race 3 4.Pinultimate $2 FF Quality bet updated 2 minutes before the race 1st $1.80

Value bet of the day Race 1 4.Fast And Single $5 FF

Speed map Special Race 10 3.Joe Cargo $15 FF

Sneaky of the day race 7 19.The Fame Game $9.50 in from $11 FF

Late quaddie suggested bet for $18 for 10%

R7     1, 4, 6, 7, 19
R8     1, 4, 13
R9     7, 8, 9, 10
R10     3, 4, 10

Race 1

The speed map shows Fast And single likely to share a moderate tempo suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Fast And Single good run last start having to be used up to work to the lead midrace and fought back gamely for a close third. Drawn wide but if Opie can work his magic and get outside the leader and dictate the tempo, he can kick on these and be the one to run down. RP $3.80, $5 FF

Dangers:

3.Jetset ran on ok in a hearse field second up. This is easier and if he can land closer, looks the main danger.

8.Western Girl just gets too far back and motors home late. Likely to do the same again for a placing off the predicted moderate tempo. $2.40FF is just too short.

11.If At First  ran home well here last start. Drawn to land closer.

Race 2

The speed map shows no obvious leader so a moderate tempo is likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 2/5

3.Pineapple Lump stood out on looks last start and had his chance but ran a good third. The tongue tie goes on this time so there may have been a breathing issue. It’s always hard to beat a nice chewy pineapple lump and it should be the same here in an easier maiden with Opie up where he should be able to get on a soft tempo and be very hard to get past. RP $2.50, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

2.Jimmy James bred to win a few races but had his chance last start. Likely to improve with that run and drawn well. Niggle is he may be better over more ground like his mum was.

12.Figeamout ran on well on debut and bred to be handy.

Race 3

The speed map shows Pinultimate likely to to lead with Willpower trailing and Donna Imelda 3 back inner and a moderate or maybe even slower tempo likely making it a race for the first three in running.

Confidence: 3/5

3.Pinultimate did very well win to win her maiden easily then showed good fight to win at her first go at R65 grade. Spelled then strengthened up and was ridden quietly fresh up in a stronger 3yo race than this and got home nicely for fifth, one length from Burgundy Belle who won easily next up. Drawn to get the lead with stablemate Willpower keen to take a sit, so should get a soft lead or be on it  and with natural improvement and with Opie on top from the Richards stable, she looks very well placed to win. RP $1.60, $2.00FF

Dangers:

1.Willpower drove hard late to win here and maps to trail his stablemate and try and do the same thing, but I can’t see him overhauling her in  a dash home.

5.Donna Imelda won well beating subsequent winner Spoil Sport bu the time was the slowest of the three 1200m races and she got all favours 3 back inner. Maps to land 3 back inner again off a moderate tempo and will find Pinultimate too fast.

Race 4

The speed map is always hard to use in a maiden 2yo with many first starters.

Confidence: 2/5

8.Jennifer Eccles  looked good winning her trial over 1000m running her last 400m in 22.89 which compared well with Pop Star Princess, who won the Open Class trial in 22.72. She also did it very easily with a very nice action. From the nice draw she should get an ideal trip behind the leaders and from there will get every chance. She opened at $5.50 and has been thumped in to $3.50 from a punting stable. RP $3.00

Dangers:

7.Avadane  did well on debut getting back and finishing it off strongly. Nicely bred but she will need to begin better to be in striking range of Jennifer and she looks like she needs more ground than 1200m to back confidently.

Race 5

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

2.Kiwi Ace rated strongly in a very good field at New Plymouth. Al ost won fresh up over 1400m at Tauranga and will be easy to go one better being stronger now. RP $

Dangers:

9.Zamax  is an impressive galloper who won easily but greenly at the Te Teko trials. Drawn to get a good run and with Opie riding for the family interest, he will be making sure he gives him every chance.

3.Henry Hudson  fitter third up and 1400m suits from a good draw.

10.Don’t Lie to Me needs a perfect ride to win and from the inside could get that.

Race 6

The speed map shows a moderate tempo suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 2/5

3.Snitz Of Time ran some very good races last campaign but just lacked strength. After a break she trialed very nicely at Waipa snagging back from a wide, draw, traveled well, and ran home under her own steam while most others were being ridden out. She didn’t have the blinkers on then, and they stay off fresh up for this. Drawn to land about 5th or 6th and get over these late. RP $3.80, $4.60 Ff

Dangers: 

1.Out Of The Park is likely to be behind Snitz and do more work, so may struggle to beat her.

Race 7

The speed map shows an even tempo likely with the big field over 1200m with a couple of pace makers and many who want to get in behind them.

Confidence: 2/5

19.The Fame Game could easily upset here. Last December he won easily here fresh up over 1200m coming from the back off an even tempo. He should get that here and he also pushed the smart Sheezallmine close at Tauranga. So as long as the inside isn’t running how, he can easily pounce on these late with an even tempo likely.  RP $6, $11 FF

Dangers:

1.Veine D’Or rates 2 lengths clear after weight adjustments dropping back from R82 company to this weaker R72 race. last start she was caught 3 wide in the open and once it was obvious she wasn’t going to be in the placings, the rider eased her right down. The Kelso’s wouldn’t line her up unless they were sure she was right. Drawn wide which may be a plus by this time of day if the inside goes off, which it can here. She maps to be midfield 3 wide with cover so will be in the right spot to pounce late with the right weight. The only niggle is she has been up a while and that zip has gone out of her.

4.Hey Tiger  won easily here fresh up last campaign over 1200m on a heavy track, but has run good races on Dead tracks. Had no trials before that fresh up win and has no trials before this start too. But drawn well and can do it with a good run likely.

7.Imblaze is an obvious quaddie include. Needs a wetter track to back with any confidence though.

6.Icebomb  when held up for one go at them, is always hard to beat.Gets 4kgs off so that will certainly help her.

 

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

1.Holsty was punted heavily on debut and was run down late after beginning awkwardly but didn’t have to do too much to get 2nd outer on a moderate tempo, kicked and was run down late. They got a soft time up front and he still got beaten and did things wrong along the way, so no anchor. The ear covers go on pre-race which will help, but it how he reacts when they come off that will be really interesting. If you are thinking off punting him, wait till the covers come off as he should be loaded early but may get permission to go in last. $1.80 FF is too short either way. 3rd after getting its chance and wasn’t good enough- anyone with an understanding of sectional and tempo analysis would have made a killing laying that at $1.70 and less!

Dangers:

4.Ata Rangi  looked good winning his first trial but showed even more improvement to win his last when drawing wide, beginning well, relaxed well when restrained 5th outer, and really let down like a nice horse to win going away. Drawn wide but looks very push button so if the favourite does things wrong, which is likely, he can take full advantage of it.

13.Our Elliemay  is a nice looking strong filly who rounded off her trial last October strongly out wide and late. No trial since but will be ready to go. Drawn to settle midfield and can be right in this with a good run.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

9.The Faith ran home strongly to win easily here two starts back then ran into a strong 3yo field next up at Ellerslie. She drew wide, snagged back but they walked in front, so to come home in the fastest last 800m of the race was very good finding the line strongly laying out and looks better left handed. She is a big strong filly suited to 1600m now and with her fitness edge over most of her main rivals, just needs a good run to win this. RP $4, $5 FF

Dangers:

8.Skaboom is fitter now and has the blinkers going on, which may indicate why she has been better backed than her stablemate, The Faith.

7.Charli Rose  will be ready to go after a couple of trials. Should be stronger as well.

10.Ming’s Emperor  maps to get the lead again and if they leave him alone, could prove hard to catch if the inside is still ok.

Race 10

The speed map shows four runners likely to go out early and the rest content to land midfield or worse. Vichy can go forward from that draw without much concern about getting caught wide. Joe Cargo looks like getting a soft lead. A moderate tempo likely unless something takes off midrace if they are going to slowly, but should suit runners in the first half of the race.

3.Joe Cargo  looks like he can get an uncontested lead here. And when he gets that he is always hard to run down. he won twice here over 2000m this time last year on Dead and Slow tracks. If the inside is still ok, which it could be, and he can get a break on them by the 300 metres, he will prove very hard to run down. RP $5, $15 FF in from $17

Dangers:

10.Vichy has been rating well in strong fields up to 1600m. She steps to 2000m and finds the right race where she can slide forward and get handy without doing too much work. From there, she has to be the one to beat as she looks like she needs 2000m now and her dam, Vercors ran third in the WFA Travis Stakes over 2000m. She has been up a while so Richie won’t be using that as an excuse. No anchor though as Joe could pinch a break on her.

4.Richard Of Yorke ran home strongly fresh up and gets 4kgs off. Likely to snag and rely on a an even tempo which is unlikely, but will be good cover if something does put the pace on midrace after going round them.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!