Subscribers will be well aware that my strength in form analysis is sectional and times analysis. When it comes to slow or worse tracks, I still do some homework but with nowhere near the amount of enthusiasm and confidence as I do on Dead or better tracks. So many more factors come into play such as how accurate the track reading is, if and when any track bias kicks in and if the 500kg beasts can handle the track. You have previous form you can go on, breeding and its galloping action but unless you can find real value, it will always be advantage bookies. So what do we do to get back that advantage?
The benchmark I look at for times to analyse a meeting closer is when they average 1.11 or better for the 1200m races. And the place to find most of those are in Australia. So I’ll be spending most of time over the next few weeks analysing those races here and in New Zealand. A classic example of the horses I like to find was Sanchez at Woodville yesterday. Below is the preview of his race.
4.Sanchez 1st $4.40 charged home late here last start to almost win. The reason he was beaten was the moderate tempo as they averaged 13.00 200 metres to the 600m mark ( see sectionals link here ) , slower than the better class race. His last 600m of 34.21 was by far the best in the race and was quicker than many runners in shorter races in better class on the day. And he will be further improved by that run. J Parkes has snapped up the mount as well. All he needs is an even tempo which is not certain but from his draw of 6 he can land about 7th or 8th and with four other runners looking to be on the pace, including Bella Nero who has drawn out and set an even tempo when leading at Tauherenikau, I’m confident they will go fast enough for him to get out wider on the turn and get over these. He was under a ride well out last start, so don’t be concerned if that happens again as he responds well. RP $3.00, $5 FF
It worked out perfectly for him as they averaged 12.56 second 200m to the 600m mark ( Full review here ) and he got over them comfortably. He is a horse that will go on with it too, as he ran the fastest Speed Rating all day and ran home in 34.31, which when taken in the context of the fastest last 600m here, was excellent.
There are only so many hours I can spend on analysing the form, so I’ll be spending most of my time analysing races on tracks where I won’t have the excuse of it not handling the conditions! The early preview of Saturday can be seen here and will be updated by 2 p.m.
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