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Saturday preview May 11 below

Update 5.30 p.m. The inside is ok at Scone so Into The Abyss should get its chance.

Update: Suggested Scone quaddie for 10%: Apologies- no updates pre-race today on the Quality bets

R5     2, 3, 6, 14
R6    1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11
R7    3, 6, 11
R8    2, 3, 4
Multi of the day Libertini $1.60, Gem Song $2.50, Wild Planet $3.30 to return $132 for every $10 Gem song let us down after getting his chance.

Leon, who won the Heads Up Multi has that multi for $20 to return $264

Good morning,

We have slow tracks at both New Zealand venues today which makes it tricky as horses that have form on Dead or better tracks may handle it or they may not. And horses that have their best form on a heavy track may find the going too good! As I explained yesterday, I will be spending most of my time analysing races where we have a 1.11 for 1200m track or better, as it takes that guesswork factor, which is a big factor, to a large degree, out of it. There are a few Australian runners detailed which I will update by noon as scratching don’t come through until 11 a.m. our time. The Scone Quaddie looks the best one to bet into as well which I will also update by noon.

Quality bets are: Gem Song 3rd , Into The Abyss ( Wait till race time before backing ) , Wild Planet 1st $3.20 , Akasaki.1st $6.80 after getting $9.50 at least on Friday

Bet of the Day Scone Race 3 1.Libertini $1.60 FF 1st $1.70 

Value Bet Of The day Scone race 7 11.Into The Abyss $6.50 FF ( Will pay to wait for him as the inside could be well off by this time of day. If winning near the inner, can be backed. )

Speed Map Special Doomben Race 7 10.Gem Song $2.70 FF

Sneaky of the Day Rotorua Race 7 12.Te Toro Pearl $8 FF 2nd 

 

Heads Up can be heard here with a preview of the big mares race at Rotorua, the Money Shot continues his hot run with another sports bet for tonight ( Hurricanes -6.5 $1.90 ) Yes  the winner of the $20 multi bet, plus more. next update by 7 p.m. tonight, then again by 8 a.m. Saturday morning.

Some very open races at both New Zealand venues. Eight Quality bets so far detailed below. I’ll update by 2 p.m. Friday. No selections for Ashburton.

Friday Multi makers

Addington

Race 5 Friday 

Confidence: 4/5

4.Only Me is a good looking filly who was very impressive last week winning on debut. She drew wide, snagged back, worked to get parked 600m out and was just too strong over the last 100 metres in a good time. She has the gate speed to cross these and lead, and over the 2600m, she should be too fast and tough again from the All Stars stable. RP $1.50, $1.75 FF Missed – flat after last week’s win.

Wanganui Dogs

Race 3 4.57 p.m.

Confidence: 4/5

1.Bigtime Bruno has been winning strongly in this grade and his times say he has the best adjusted time and the best opening sectional. The 2 dog likes to get away from the rail so he can use his early strength and speed to drive to the lead and should be too good from there. RP $1.30, $1.55 1st 1.40 won well.

Saturday

Scone

Race 1 

Confidence: 3/5

2.Wild Planet 1st $2.30  second up last start was caught 3 wide on the pace and was coming back on the line in a strong speed rating with two good winners coming out of that race. Drawn to get a good run behind a moderate tempo which won’t help main rival Military Zone, who has drawn wide and will have to snag back. RP $2.40, $3.50 Ff and may get better closer to race time.

Race 3

Confidence: 5/5

1.Libertini 1st $1.70 could not have been more impressive winning last start in 1.08.78, a very good time for any horse, let alone a 2yo filly. Plus she did it 4 wide in the open all the way from the wide barrier. She is a big strong filly and should be able to slot in with cover and even if she doesn’t should still be a class  or three above these. RP $1.10, $1.60 FF

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

1.Akasaki 1st $6.80  gets back on to his favourite track where he has won two from three starts. He won at this meeting last year in a BM 80 and this is slightly weaker. Last start he drew the inside as was travelling like a winner back on the inner but ran into horse rump and wasn’t tested by the pilot after that. He has drawn out here and the same tactics as when he won here last year looks ideal for him. He gets 3kgs off and with a good tempo very likely, he just needs a track into it and this track will suit his finishing style ideally. RP $5, $9.50  in from $12 FF

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

11.Into The Abyss  last start would have won easily with a clear run in the fastest closing sectionals and a very good Speed rating. She is right at her peak now and she maps to land 3 back inner. They tend to fan turning in here, so she get out in time to power through these. RP $4.00, $6.50 FF

Doomben

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

10.Gem Song was very impressive to the eye last start over 1600m. The time was average but she has run some above average sectionals and speed ratings in her nine starts for five wins. He has a beautiful long stride on him when asked to go. With his early speed, he can land in the trail or 3 back inner and with an even speed likely, should be able to get out and use that powerful finish of his with the lighter weight. RP $2.20, $2.60 FF

Below are my thoughts on other races in New Zealand

New Plymouth

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

6.Cutting Up Rough looks well placed here on 51kgs. He charged home late for third at Awapuni to the very good Rock On Wood rating a Formpro Rating of 111 on the dead 6 track. He ran home in an almost identical last 600m as Rock On Wood so he is right at the peak of his career. So to get in here on 51kgs, which the rider can get down to easily, he just needs to rate around 108 to win this. He maps to get an ideal run about 4th inner and the only query is that he has been up a while, but he just seems to be thriving and getting better and better, plus the 1800m should suit based on that last run over 1600m. A dead to slow track is ideal. RP $2.80, $3.40 in from $4 FF

 

Rotorua

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

5.Scaglioni  ran a very good race here last start after working hard for the first third of the race then led 1200m out. He fought back gamely for third. He can only improve off that and he is rock hard fit now. 2200m will suit and should be able to slot in midfield depending on how he jumps and get every chance. RP $4.50, $6 and is eachway chance with the right run.

Dangers:

2.Nordic is the obvious danger.

Race 2

An even race best watched. For quaddies include: 9-3-8-6

Race 3

Another open race with a few nice gallopers. You could make a case for most of them. Best left alone. For quaddie include: 2-12-6-7

Race 4

An even race again.

Confidence: 1/5

7.Socialights won really well here two starts back on a wet track. Had a tough run last start and back here from a good draw, can bounce back. RP $4, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

3.Makabar  goes well here and with 4kgs off may try for an all the way win.

1.Harbourside  will be suited if they go hard enough.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5 in a very open race

8.Azaboy  won well with a good rails ride here last start with 58.5kgs and drops to 54 kgs in the harder field. Always an advantage with winning form here. Should get a good run from the draw and on the light weight, can win again. RP $4.50, $4.60 FF

Dangers:

2.Highlad  won this race last year with 60kgs and Opie jumps on.

11.Artiste drawn to do nothing in running and if the inside is ok, can be right in this.

7.Roger That drawn wide which could be an asset by this time of day.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

Tough race for the quaddie- go wide.

6.Ritani ran on ok along the inner last start and is fitter now. The wetter the better.

Dangers:

14.Spindle is racing at the peak of its career and is close to a win.

3.Miss Contessa drawn to get a good run and fights hard.

2.Ticket To Ride with 2kgs off will be right in it.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

12.Te Toro Pearl  was held up here last start and would have gone close to winning with a clear run. Tough mare who has drawn out wide which could make all the difference by this time of day with Cameron Lammas up. RP $4, $8 in from $10 FF

Dangers:

6.Back In A Flash  bolted in here last start which is always a big tick here. She’s up in class but drawn to get a good run and be the one to beat. RP $4.50, $4.40 Ff

2.Sleeping Beauty  will be improved by that last run here. Better suited here.

1.Tomelilla  won this last year and when right is always hard to beat.

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5 Helena Baby looks the anchor from the wide draw

6.Helena Baby  was a dominant winner here last start. His time was better than the R65 and R82 race and he bolted in. He relished the wet track and has improved quite a bit from start to start. Drawn out which could be an asset. RP $1.70, $1.80

New Plymouth

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

Race lacking form so pass for better races. For quaddies in order: 7-3-9-8

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

6.Spirit Of Galway is a nice galloper and from the good draw should get every chance. RP $3, $2.60 FF

Dangers: 7 and 8

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

A very open race- in order for quaddies: 5-6-3-4-1

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

5.Comeback looks J Parkes best ride all day. In great form and drawn to get a good run. RP $3.00, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

3-2-7

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

Room for an upset. 9.Rip Em Up  always does enough to keep punters interested but will likely get beaten again. Needs a perfect ride.

2.Super Hoof game second on debut and won a recent trail well. Could lead them a merry chase.

1.Wild Like drawn to get a good run and be right in it.

4.Nudge bar  with J Parkes up should get his chance.

Race 6

Confidence:1/5

12.Rippin  is a quick improver off a nice 6th fresh up from the Baker/Forsman stable. RP $5

Dangers:

14.Lady Style will be ready to fire fresh from the Sharrock stable.

6.Redcayenne can go well fresh from the Pike stable.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

6.Cutting Up Rough looks well placed here on 51kgs. He charged home late for third at Awapuni to the very good Rock On Wood rating a Formpro Rating of 111 on the dead 6 track. He ran home in an almost identical last 600m as Rock On Wood so he is right at the peak of his career. So to get in here on 51kgs, which the rider can get down to easily, he just needs to rate around 108 to win this. He maps to get an ideal run about 4th inner and the only query is that he has been up a while, but he just seems to be thriving and getting better and better, plus the 1800m should suit based on that last run over 1600m. A dead to slow track is ideal. RP $2.80, $3.40 in from $4 FF

Dangers:

4-1-2

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

1.Collinstreet  ran into a good one last Sunday and the better track will help. 4kgs off and looks a solid chance. RP $3, $2.70

Dangers:

12.Tuigirl  is a nice horse and won very well last start. If the inside is ok is the one Collin has to beat.

14.Replica  will be ready to go with the light weight and is the upsetter.

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!