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Sunday Specials below

 

Good morning,

I’ve been able to find three Quality bets today that all look well placed at good value prices and they all map to lead which is always a plus. Shooters Hill is a good eachway chance as he needs luck picking a path through them from near last.

Bet of the day Manukau Dogs Race 11 2.Relevance $2.90 FF

Value bet of the day Winton race 10 2.Bullit $13FF

Speed Map Special Manukau Dogs Race 5 7.Bombshell Blonde  $4.50 Ff

Sneaky bet Manukau Dogs Race 12 3.Shooters Hill $7.50 FF

 

Winton

Race 10

Confidence: 3/5

2.Bullit 2nd after leading well out and setting a world record for the slowest last 200m of all time for a placed runner of 18.46 seconds after being nailed late. It was a brave run nevertheless and the bookies avoided a Sunday afternoon bath. If you backed him each way yopu would have nearly doubled your money anyway.

I rarely select anything for South Island meetings but if I spot something that stands out in the Formpro Ratings ( FR) I nearly always find out why. And Bullitt is one that stands out by at least 4 lengths and is a very good value at around $13 FF and $3.60 FF for a place. He rated an FR of 100 when bolting in on a very heavy track at Waimate over 1840m in June last year and his time was the fastest of the five races over that distance all day- faster than the Open handicap and R75 races. That was his third win. His first came here over today’s distance of 2130m on a slow to heavy track winning easily at his third run on after a nice run over 1600m second up. Then at Ashburton he was again too strong on a very heavy track over 2100m.

He has had two runs back over 1600m and last start indicated he was close to being ready when he got back on the inner, was going ok but in the slower part of the track, then once angled wider to the better part of the going, ran on well late and past the post. He has an ideal high front knee action for what is going to be very testing track. There is little pace in the race and over middle distances he nearly always leads or sits close to it. He could even lead these or get a good sit on it and should get his chance to get to the right part of the track and upset these and very good value. I rate him a $4 chance against most horses that are suspect on a bog or out of form. RP $4, $13 and $3.60 FF

 

Manukau Greyhounds

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

7.Bombshell Blonde  drops back in class here and drawn ideally to challenge for the lead into the first bend along with 2.Wairenga Star. The five dog goes left sharply so may squeeze the 2 up early allowing Bombshell to cross and lead and the 6 and 8 dogs are slower away and go straight anyway. She has the fastest early sectional, closing sectional and race time which she did here on March 10 when she led all the way from box in this grade. RP $2.40, $4.50 FF

Race 11

Confidence: 3/5

2.Relevance was a dominant winner here last week when he drew box 3, began well and got to the rail which he loves. It was a class 2 race but his opening sectional of 4.51 and closing of 13.84 and race time were almost identical to the top dog, Just One Smile on the same day in the C4/5 race. He has the fastest opening sectional here and is 2 to 3 lengths quicker than Manicorn to the first marker, so as long as he jumps like he has in his last two starts, he should ping and get on the rail, lead and be very hard to beat with the fastest time in this field in the last 3 months. RP $2.20, $2.90 FF

Race 12

Confidence: 2/5

3.Shooters Hill  ran huge closing sectional when winning here three starts back. It was faster than the open grade dogs and the fastest recorded there for a long time of 14.48. Then he raced at Cambridge and didn’t seem to gallop as kindly. The 603m is ideal for him. He’ll get back but look for him to start picking them off quickly from the end of the back straight. With luck, he can swamp them. Good eachway chance. RP 4.80, $7.50 FF

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!