A satisfactory start to the week with nice profits taken out of the two 3/5 confidence races with Dragon Storm and Memories Only both winning in the races where two win bets were recommended. The bonus was with the $540 quaddie with the $29 bet returning $108. It just goes to show why you must assess your selections chances of winning with a rated price. Quiz Kid got down to red figures which made him the lay of the day, not the bet of the day from the draw. I rated him a $2.60 chance. Mac Attacka was backable around his rated price of $3. I’ll be posting my thoughts about the Otaki meeting tomorrow morning by 8.45 a.m.
Last week there were 9 x 3/5 confidence or better gallops races with 5 winners, 1 x 2nd, 1x 3rd and 2 misses
Sanchez 3/5 1st $5 into $4.40
Helena Baby 3/5 1st $1.40 and was never in doubt
Cutting Up Rough missed after getting too far back but may have had enough.
Akasaki 3/5 1st $6.80 after opening at $12 and was still available at $9.50 late Friday
Libertini 5/5 confidence and and bolted in getting a soft sit 2nd outer
Wild Planet 3/5 1st $3, and won well
Into The Abyss 3/5 4th ( had its chance if good enough)
Gem Song 3/5 3rd ( Outsprinted )
Bullit $3.50 tote $4 Ff place led until lack of race fitness over ground kicked in along with the weight difference – great effort though.
So we have got this week off to a nice start with nice profits from the two 3/5 confidence races. These are the races where I feel we can confidently bet into as the speed looks right, the form and everything else looks like we can bet into it getting value.
Update: No further bets
At this meeting last year the average win dividend was just under $15. Why was that? It is because many horses are either coming to the end of campaigns, starting new ones or are just one run into it. Plus it can have a strong bias to on pace runners at times with the sandy based conditions. So what does that mean? It means tread carefully and maybe look at finding races you can confidently predict the tempo of. There are just two races that have decent form in them, races 7 and 8, so that is where I’ve spent most of time analysing the form. Both speed maps show that we can confidently predict the tempo and which horses will be favoured.
I’ll post an update by 11.45 with any head to heads or other bets in Australia.
Bet of the day Race 8 3.Bruegel $4.50 FF
Value bet of the day race 7 5.Express Call $11 FF
The quaddie looks like the best exotic bet today:
Suggested quaddie for $28.80 for 20% yes paid $540
R6 1, 4, 9, 11
R7 3, 5
R8 3, 4, 15
R9 1, 3, 4, 8, 9, 11
Chris Gibbs, when pressed on Trackside by Pops, said he was really looking forward to seeing 5.Mac Attacka 1st $3.30 debut. And after viewing his trials and you can see why. He led all the way in his last one looking very strong with a nice action. Drawn to lead or sit outside it and the 1400m will be ideal with his action and strength. RP $3.00, and backed in early from $3.20 to $2.90 Ff
Confidence 2/5 – would have been 4/5 with a decent draw.
2.Quiz Kid 4th after missing it and working wide- got into $1.70 so became very layable! looked good in his trials then showed he had above average two year old ability when leading and was only outfinished late by two very good two year olds including Rainbow Dash, 2nd, went on to win well next up. The sectional splits and times back that up as well. Of course the negative is he has drawn wide and there looks to be good speed inside him over the 1000m. So Vinnie will need to quickly sum up the situation depending on how he jumps. If he pings the gates, then he may hunt him up to even get 3 wide in the open, and if he misses it slightly, look to snag even 3 wide with cover. We don’t know just how good some of these are, so it makes it hard to take the $2.10 as I rate him a $2.60 chance from that gate. He may drift out though. RP $2.60, $2.10 Ff
4.Finale looked good winning his two trials and will be on the pace.
1.Call Me Murphy 1st $3.40 has the blinkers going on and hasn’t been trialed but will be ready- wide draw no help.
9.Heat Seeker can upset with the blinkers going on. He ran a good race fresh up and it was too rich last start.
11.Luvlucy two good runs and fitter now.
The speed map shows Express Call getting an uncontested lead with Dragon Storm securing the trail but only if he can begin cleanly, otherwise Iffrajinator can nail that spot and a moderate tempo likely suiting on pace runners.
Confidence: 3/5 that one of the two below can win – recommend backing both or backing Express Call at $10 and save on Dragon Storm. Or just back Express Call eachway.
5.Express Call 2nd $3.50 qu $18 has a break then resumed at Counties where she snagged to midfield and worked home nicely late. She is best suited when she can be allowed to go along in front at her own pace and then try and put a winning break on them by the turn. She will be stronger now and has found the right race to lead all the way in. RP $4.80, $10 FF
3.Dragon Storm 1st $2.80 won his maiden here over this distance as a hot favourite in 2017 and even though he just got up he always looks like he would. He has come back looking stronger after a big break and maps to get a cost trail just behind Express Call. Opie has the mount and he ran a good fourth last start at a Ellerslie in a stronger field with an FR of 102, where he worked midrace to get 2nd outer. This race would have been targeted so looks the main danger. He needs to rate an FR of 99 to win this. Plus if you are a Game Of Thrones fan this has to be the omen bet after Monday’s episode! The negative is he can muff the start at times and if he ends up 3 back innr or worse, it will be advantage Express Call. RP $2.90, $3.40 FF
As you can see in the speed map there is a sea of green which only means one thing a solid tempo. So it does set up for a closer like Bruegel or Fast And Furious.
Confidence 3/5 it is a race that I feel there are two realistic chances and both are value so back both to win a similar amount but faving the stronger chance. e.g. for every $10 put $7 on Bruegel ( $31.50 ) and $3 on Memories Only ( $25.50 )
3.Bruegel two starts back got a good pace up front and charged home to win well in the end. Then at Counties would have gone close to winning but was held up in the straight and wasn’t far away. Nigel Tiley seems to have figured him out now with 120 races being his niche in fast run races and he gets that here. RP $2.60, $4.50 FF
4.Memories Only rates clearly on top in the Formpro Ratings after weight adjustments and dropping back in class. But she has to get the right run with cover which she may or may not get. Gets 3kgs off and has to be in quaddies. RP $5, $8.50 FF
15.Fast and Furious flew late behind Bruegel when he won at Awapuni. He won his maiden at Ellerslie over 1200m on a Good track beating some handy horses. Forget his last start at Rotorua on a heavy track. He has the side winkers going on and has drawn to land closer and can upset with the strong tempo up front. RP $8, $23 and $5.25
There are six realistic chances for the quaddie: in race book order: 1-3-4-8-9-11