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Saturday 18 May preview below

Update: Deprive

He has been well backed and should be able to get out off the fence from that draw and be in the right place to strike. He’s a very good and feel he will be just too good over the last 100 metres. Late scratched so no damage done. Not a bad day with two of the three Quality bets getting up. Back tomorrow by 9 a.m. with any Sunday Specials.

Update: Grey Lion

The money has been strong for him all day. He should be able to get out to the centre of the track after turning in, which seems to be the best place to be and with the sprinting ability he has shown off a cosy run, he will be very hard to beat. Never in doubt ūüėČ I think thy still pay the same if they win by a nose? Good ride by Kathy O’Hara easing out 3 wide with cover midrace. Back for Deprive’s race soon.

Update: Isaurian

There has been good money for him and the track is playing ok near the inside. Ready to win-looks very ready. Good bet. I didn’t think he would by much but James knew where the post was ūüėČ

Update: She’s A Goddess

So far we have had three races with all three winners leading. The inside seems no disadvantage and she has held her price. Pam Gerard said she would be happy to take a trail to the right one which would be Bolt From the Blue or Von Trapp. It just depends on how well she begins which is usually quick. I’d prefer to see her hold the lead. She looks very fit and relaxed. She has drifted but still feel she is excellent value so is a bet. Taken on in front so no chance.

Update 11.18 a.m.

Suggested Rosehill quaddie for $28 for 100%

R6  9, 10
R7    5
R8  6
R9  1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18

Suggested Doomben quaddie for $26 for 10%

R6  7
R7  1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
R8  2, 11, 13, 16
R9  1, 2, 5, 14, 15

Good morning,

On a Wednesday afternoon when the fields are released for Saturday’s racing, I go through my Blackbooked runners on Racenet, which is excellent for keeping notes on NZ and Australian runners, and seeing which ones are coming up to race, then spend the next few days sifting through them to see which of them are well placed to win. On Wednesday there were sixteen runners that I went through to see if they had entered into an easier or harder race, was the distance right, did the speed map suit their pattern of racing, were the track conditions going to be suitable and much more. Often the early markets, especially in Australia, will give you a guide as to if it is well placed or not. So what resulted was a shortlist of around 6 runners by Friday morning and now, as you can see below, four runners that all map to get the race run to suit, have shown they are good enough to win, and are at value prices. The final four Quality bets, which are the races I rate in confidence of 3/5, 4/5 or 5/5 and can be backed in excess of their rated price, are below. But as we know, things can change during the day. A track bias or pattern may emerge that helps or hinders its chances, or it may drift significantly in the market, or the money may come for one or two others that I had under-rated. Or it may show a cluster of behaviours in its preliminary that tell us it is not going to win or is very ready to win, like Sanchez was last week at Woodville.

So below are the four Quality bets for today where I will be placing most of my money. And if you have access to this site 2 minutes before the race, I’ll post my comments about those points mentioned and how confident I am of it winning. And yes, I’ll get it wrong more often than I get it right, or the horse may have a bad hair day, like Yamato yesterday when she refused to gallop, but that’s why we have to ensure we get value prices on runners we are confident can win so we can make up for those losses. The Quality bets have made a healthy profit with a regular supply of winners since November last year. You will have your own main bets, so make sure you write down your reasons for selecting them and a rated price, which reflects what chance you¬† give the horse, then tomorrow, we can sit back and see what we did right and what we did wrong, and see where we can improve our selection process and staking.

And don’t forget to enjoy the ride.

Bet of the day Rosehill Race 8 6.Deprive $2.60 FF Late scratched

Value bet of the day Te Rapa Race 4 9.Shes a Goddess $7 FF Missed

Speed map special Doomben Race 6 7.Isaurian $3.10 FF $1.90

Another good value Quality bet Rosehill Race 7 5.Grey Lion $5 FF 1st $3.50

Sneaky of the day Te Rapa Race 2 10.Woodsman $6 FF can be backed for a win up to $30 with a refund if it runs 2nd, 3rd or 4th if it your first bet on the race.  1st and won really well.

Aaron, who won the Heads Up $20 multi bet is on Deprive $2.50 win, She’s a Goddess $2.40 place, Grey Lion $1.75 place and Isaurian $2.70 win to return $567 less any deductions.

This week’s Heads Up is here

Rosehill

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

5.Grey Lion1 1st $3.50  is relishing his racing in Sydney won easily last start in a Group 3 race with a strong speed rating and drops back to a Listed race here. Fifth horse in that race was Abdon who followed him home but not as fast over the last 200m, and he won a $176k race next up. He will be even fitter after that with a trial in between where he came from last relishing his work to win. Maps to get a good run and he does seem best on the fresh side. He can settle about 6th or 7th from the good draw and be in the right spot to get over these again with his fast closing sprint. RP $3.40, $5 FF

Race 8

Confidence: 4/5

6.Deprive late scratched went in my Blackbook with bold underlined letter after winning like a very, very¬† good horse at Randwick last December. he ran the time and sectionals to back it up as well. He was turned out and has come back looking even better after cruising round in his trial with gears up his sleeve. he’s the type of horse that jumps and relaxes and needs a good speed up front to use that powerful closing sprint to get over them. He should get that here from the good draw from around midfield. RP $1.70, $2.60 FF

 

Doomben

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

7.Isaurian 1st $1.90 won his first trial back after a spell and led by default and won easily. Then ran on nicely for third under his own steam in his last trial. He has won twice fresh up and is ready to win again. His times are excellent and he maps to get a good run midfield behind a hot pace and his power should allow him to get over these with James picking a path through them.Rp $2.40, $3.10FF

 

Te Rapa

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

9.Shes a Goddess won strongly last start at Matamata in a good speed rating. She showed good early speed again and was cruising most of the way and won with something up her sleeve. Drawn the inside and can definitely lead here after looking at how others begin and what they are likely to do. She set a 34.92 first 600m last start and still won easily, so if the inside is still ok, which it is likely to be, she can get a break on these turning in as she hugs the rail, and get a winning break on these and with a nice weight advantage over her main rivals, she can hold on. RP $4.00, $7 Ff after opening at $8.50 Ff

Dangers:

6.Von Trapp  can take a few strides to get going but if he can get 2nd outer or trail, he is the main danger.

5.Pinultimate is in danger of being caught 3 wide in the open from that draw unless she snags, so needs luck and things to go her way therefore $4.60 FF is too short.

Te Rapa full preview below:

Confidence: 2/5

1.Big Mike 1st $3  ran a good third fresh up looking like he needed more ground. then he got a bit keen in the Easter and shared a hot pace so had to weaken. Back here over a middle distance suit. Drawn to lead and should be able to get his own way and be the one to run down. The negative is the 60kgs first up over ground. RP $3.00, $2.50FF

Dangers:

4.Al Haram was held up at a vital stage here last start and the winner, Bobby Dee, has the momentum up and just beat him home. He’s a nice galloper ready to win now and strikes the right race on the right weight.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

10.Woodsman 1st $4.80

Won his hurdle trial in the fastest of the five heats beating a couple of good horses on the flat in Jochen Rindt and El Fernando by 2.5L. He certainly has the speed to lead these comfortably and as long as he jumps them ok, he has the proven ratings on the flat to say he can lead them all the way, especially with the 3kgs off his back. Tony Gillies trains him so he will be well schooled. RP $4.50, $7 FF

Dangers for quaddies:

4-3-9

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

8.Guy Fox is very fit now after his good win on the flat. Jumps very well and the better surface will favour him as well. RP $3.80, $4 FF

Dangers for quaddie:

4-3

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

9.She’s a Goddess won strongly last start at Matamata in a good speed rating. She showed good early speed again and was cruising most of the way and won with something up her sleeve. Drawn the inside and can definitely lead here after looking at how others begin and what they are likely to do. She set a 34.92 first 600m last start and still won easily, so if the inside is still ok, which it is likely to be, she can get a break on these turning in as she hugs the rail, and get a winning break on these and with a nice weight advantage over her main rivals, she can hold on. RP $4.00, $7 Ff after opening at $8.50 Ff

 

Dangers:

6.Von Trapp  can take a few strides to get going but if he can get 2nd outer or trail, he is the main danger.

5.Pinultimate is in danger of being caught 3 wide in the open from that draw unless she snags, so needs luck and things to go her way therefore $4.60 FF is too short.

Race 5

Good race to watch. For quaddie_ 5-3-6

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

2.Max  won this race last year after one run. He looked a definite improver out of Wanganui fresh up when looming and just blowing out. Jumps well and has the pace on the flat to get over these again. RP $3.50, $3.60 FF

Dangers:

9.Gargarin beat home Max last start but is worse off in the weights this time. Jumps well which is always a plus.

1.Shamal 1st $3   ran 4th to Max in this last year and won well fresh up here.

5.The Arabian Duke ¬†ran an improver’s 2nd to Shamal last start and jumps well also.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

12.Aileen Grace  is ready to win now after very good closing sectionals last start. Just needs decent luck and a good track into it. RP $6, $9 FF

Dangers:

15.So Wicked good third fresh up. Nice action and just needs a bit of luck from a wide draw.

16.Sweet Nineteen  should have a good campaign. Nice trial and possess a good sprint.

9.Dream On  ready to win after two good runs and a good draw.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

11.Paisley Park  is a nice horse and has been looking for a decent surface and gets it. Nicely weighted and best this way round. RP $6, $7 FF

Dangers:

13.Ignored put in a big effort last start giving them all a decent start. Up in class but with a better beginning, has to be a chance on that weight.

9.Pop Star Princess with a soft lead could do it- seems stronger now.

4.Magic Of The Sun  should get a cosy trail and be hard to beat from there.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

9.Van Diamond was tightened up midrace last start but came home well after that. Darwn to get all favours and can win with that good run that is likely. RP $7, $12 FF

Dangers:

7.Glendalaugh  is a nice horse and will be improved by that good 2nd fresh up.

12.Yatima  won well last start and has the breeding an d action to say she can win more.

3.William Scott 1st $6  is a tough nice actioned galloper who won well in a good speed rating here last start. If the inside is off, his chances increase.

Awapuni

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

1.Lincoln Hanover was taken on early and that took the sting out of him late. 1400m will suit. RP $3, $2.70 FF

Dangers:

4.Lincoln Town  drawn to get all favours and trialled very well.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.Tappy’s One ¬†drawn to get a winning run and has race experience on his side. RP $3.00, $2.40 FF

Dangers:

5.She’s A Lady 1st $2.50 nice galloper and went her best race fresh up.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

3.Magico  will no doubt try to repeat the dose with an all the way win again. Gets that 4kgs off again, so could do it.

Dangers:

5.What A Smasher fought well last start. If she can get a run with cover and they go hard, which is likely, she can upset.

4.Mars Bars  should be ready to fire up fresh. 4kgs of

10.Sea Star  with a good run likely can upset. Was going really well this time last year. On a rating of 67 so if she misses, will likely drop back to R65 next up and worth watching out for.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

7.Toms  1st $4 won very well last start and should be even better for that. Drawn to get all favours. RP $3.50, $3.60 FF

Dangers:

1.Strolling Vagabond  ready to win now and gets 3kgs off.

8.Italian Lover  won well fresh up and even fitter for that.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

3.Lincoln King is a nice looking galloper well suited to a middle distance. Looked like he can go on with after his impressive last start win. RP $3.50, $3.60 FF

Dangers:

6.Prior Engagement 1st $9 was well ridden to win well last start. Very fit now.

8.Mamba solid 2nd last start and peaking.

4.Took The Catch  with a good run likely,could upset.

 Race 6

Confidence; 1/5 in a very open race

9.Empress Tzu Hsi two nice runs and J Parkes jumps on. Showed good ability last campaign and fitter now. Drawn wide but inside likely to be off. RP $6, $9.50 FF

Dangers:

11.Wafer  has the ability to win a race like this. No chance fresh up caught wide and fitter now.

2.One Prize One Goal 1st $7 gets 4kgs off this time which could make all the difference.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

4.She’s Poppy has run two nice races in harder fields on better tracks that she needs to win. Fitter now and gets the slow track she needs. Won this last year. Wide draw could be a plus too. RP $4, $5 FF

Dangers:

2.Dolcetto  racing well in stronger fields and drawn to get a good run.

7.Hinerangi  1st $8 may get a soft lead here and with the Pope on board, with the right prayer, she could hang on.

1.Overtheriver put in a huge effort last week to win. He wouldn’t be backed up unless he came through that very well.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

6.Whatsup  2nd won well last start getting all favours on a slow tempo. But he shown he can do just the same off a good tempo. Gets 2kgs off but up in class. Can win with a good ride. RP $4, $6 FF

Dangers:

4.Switch In Time will relish the slow track after that solid third last time. Fitter and main danger.

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!