The full preview of Saturday for here and in Australia can be seen here
On a Wednesday afternoon when the fields are released for Saturday’s racing, I go through my Blackbooked runners on Racenet, which is excellent for keeping notes on NZ and Australian runners, and seeing which ones are coming up to race, then spend the next few days sifting through them to see which of them are well placed to win. On Wednesday there were sixteen runners that I went through to see if they had entered into an easier or harder race, was the distance right, did the speed map suit their pattern of racing, were the track conditions going to be suitable and much more. Often the early markets, especially in Australia, will give you a guide as to if it is well placed or not.
So what resulted was a shortlist of around 6 runners by Friday morning and now, as you can see below, four runners that all map to get the race run to suit, have shown they are good enough to win, and are at value prices. The final four Quality bets, which are the races I rate in confidence of 3/5, 4/5 or 5/5 and can be backed in excess of their rated price, are below. But as we know, things can change during the day. A track bias or pattern may emerge that helps or hinders its chances, or it may drift significantly in the market, or the money may come for one or two others that I had under-rated. Or it may show a cluster of behaviours in its preliminary that tell us it is not going to win or is very ready to win, like Sanchez was last week at Woodville.
So below are the four Quality bets for today where I will be placing most of my money on. And if you have access to this site 2 minutes before the race, I’ll post my comments about those points mentioned and how confident I am of it winning. And yes, I’ll get it wrong more often than I get it right, or the horse may have a bad hair day, like Yamato yesterday when she refused to gallop, but that’s why we have to ensure we get value prices on runners we are confident can win so we can make up for those losses. The Quality bets have made a healthy profit with a regular supply of winners since November last year. You will have your own main bets, so make sure you write down your reasons for selecting them and a rated price, which reflects what chance you give the horse, then tomorrow, we can sit back and see what we did right and what we did wrong, and see where we can improve our selection process and staking.
There will be an update by noon.
And don’t forget to enjoy the ride.
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