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Saturday preview below

 

Update: Deprive. The money has come strongly for Deprive and Cradle Mountain has drifted out. He’s gone down nicely and with a fast pace likely he can power home and win. Gutsy ride and a big win! Back again tomorrow morning by 9 a.m. with any Sunday Specials.

Update 4.19: Charlie Horse has improved his fitness and coat since his last start and looks ready to win. Maps to get a winning run out wider in the straight and will go to the top of the early Xmas card list for quite a few subscribers if Sam can get the gob done! Missed after getting out wider but didn’t finish it off. Back for Deprive.

Update 2.53: Quilista looks even better than last week and the inside is ideal- very hard to beat. 2nd Just raced too keenly early and fought well for 2nd.

Update 2.44 p.m: It is looking good for Quilista with that patch up by the rail down the straight proving the ideal place to be. Charlie Horse looks ideally placed to win now with him drawn ideally to get to the best part of the track out wider. And Deprive should be able to get out wider at Randwick where it seems to favouring. All three should get winning runs.

Update: Reloaded- He has been strong in the market and he looks nice and relaxed and set to win. Good bet. 2nd after getting his chance.

Update 12.16 p.m.

The money has certainly been laid on Inscription. She looks terrific and as long as he doesn’t get caught 3 back inner and get held up, she looks very hard to beat. Remember she can rattle off a very fast last 200 metres. We are on!  1st $2.20 and had to use that fast sprint she has again to get up. Back for Reloaded’s race at 1.23 p.m.

Update 11.50 a.m.

Eagle Farm late quaddie for $27 for 10% $1668 10 % returned $166

R6   1, 2, 3
R7     2, 5, 7, 11, 20
R8     2, 3, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12, 14, 17
R9     2, 6

Update 11.45:

Suggested Ellerslie Late quaddie on race 5 for $30 for 5%

R5   3, 4, 6, 8, 9
R6    3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11
R7     2, 5, 11, 13, 14
R8     1, 3, 7, 10

Sydney late quaddie:

$22.40 for 10%

R6    1, 3, 4, 15
R7     1, 4, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13
R8     15
R9     1, 4, 6, 7, 13, 16, 17, 22

Good morning,

Below are the five Quality bets for the day. Some of you may have multis running through some of them from the two multi makers here last night, so I’ll be updating the five quality bets below about 2 minutes out from start time with a comment about how it looks, any significant market move on it and how the track is playing, along with my recommendation to back it or leave it. I’ll also post an update by noon with any other head to head or other bets.

Enjoy the ride.

Neil

Bet of the day Randwick Race 1 5.Reloaded $1.70 FF  2nd 

Value bet of the day Trentham Race 8 1.Charlie Horse $4 ( in from $4.50 Ff ) updated 4.21 p.m. Missed

Speed map Special Eagle Farm Race 4 4.Quilista $2.40 Updated 2.53 2nd

Ratings special Ellerslie race 1 7.Inscription $2.50 FF 1st after opening at $3.20 FF couldn’t get on quick enough and landed some big multis for some subscribers!

Other Good confidence bets: Randwick Race 8 15.Deprive $3.70 Ff Updated 5.55 p.m. 1st $2.20

Sneaky of the Day Ellerslie Race 3 11.Sarabande $8 FF

 

Ellerslie

Race 1

The speed map shows three runners going forward and a moderate to even tempo likely.

Confidence: 4/5

7.Inscription has won her last two races very impressively. two wins back she had to run the fastest last 200m all day to win, and last start at Hastings, flew late to win to run the fastest last 600m all day in 34.30 and it was by far the best Speed rated win all day over all distances. She is best with her races spaced and she gets in here on 51kgs, a significant pull in the weights. She has rated 109 and 108 at her last two wins and with 51kgs, just needs to rate 107 to beat these. The speed map shows she is likely to be 3 back inner behind a moderate to  even tempo and just needs to get out near the turn to be too fast for these. RP $1.70, $2.60, (Opened $3.20 FF )

Randwick

Race 1

Confidence: 4/5

5.Reloaded was very impressive winning on debut over 1200m in a fast speed rating and the best closing sectionals and edging away late. So the step to 1400m looks ideal for this strong looking fella. He has trialed very impressively since under a hold all the way and let go late to grab second. Chris Waller has him racing like a pro and he looks very well placed here. RP $1.70, $1.85 FF

Randwick 

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

15.Deprive was late scratched at the barrier last week after bumping his head. he was very impressive in his trials before that and Cummings would not back him up 7 days later unless he was 100% happy. The ear muffs go on pre-race and the pace will be on in this with Cradle Mountain likely ti be hunted out to lead from a wide draw and few kicking up inside to ensure they get good runs. He relaxes well and should settle back and with that even tempo at least up front, he is going to be able unleash that powerful finish of his after getting over the rise, and with that significant weight difference, it will take a very good effort to keep him out. RP $2.40, $3.80 FF

Eagle Farm

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

4.Quilista last week looked very well and raced up to that leading all the way in 1.08.7, a speed rating of 125 and set 11.70 200m sectionals to the 600m mark so didn’t dawdle. She should lead again here and i can’t see anything taking her on to get the lead, so as long as the inside is ok, which it has been by this time of day at previous meetings, she can get a winning break on these after turning and hold on over the 1300m. She has trained on the right way since last week. RP $1.90, $2.40 Ff

Ellerslie

Race 1

The speed map shows three runners going forward and a moderate to even tempo likely.

Confidence: 4/5

7.Inscription has won her last two races very impressively. two wins back she had to run the fastest last 200m all day to win, and last start at Hastings, flew late to win to run the fastest last 600m all day in 34.30 and it was by far the best Speed rated win all day over all distances. She is best with her races spaced and she gets in here on 51kgs, a significant pull in the weights. She has rated 109 and 108 at her last two wins and with 51kgs, just needs to rate 107 to beat these. The speed map shows she is likely to be 3 back inner behind a moderate to  even tempo and just needs to get out near the turn to be too fast for these. RP $1.70, $2.60, (Opened $3.20 FF )

Dangers:

1.Sultan Of Swing unlucky in The Easter here. Likely to need the run and giving 9kgs to Inscription. Opened $3.90 and out to $4.50 FF

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

5.Campari won really well last start and is going to win more races. Awkward draw but even a sit 3 wide with cover should allow her to beat these. RP $4, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

1.Hanger should get a good run and be the main danger.

3.Merlini  should get a softish lead and be hard to run down, but 1400m is the query especially if taken on by Joy Anna.

8.Veine D’Or  wouldn’t be starting unless the trainers thought she could win. Drawn to get a winning run.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

11.Sarabande has put in two very good runs this campaign. Has placed here with a strong sustained sprint and with a good run midfield, she can get out and get over these with the weight advantage. RP $5, $9FF

Dangers:

1.Valante  could get an uncontested lead and be hard to run down – top run last start.

5.Cossack Warrior drawn to get a good run. $4.50 too short though.

4.Chao Siu Bao  drawn to do nothing and can sprint hard under those circumstances.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

10.Copper Fox was confidently backed to win last start and had to be good to get the job done. Up in class but looks the goods. RP $5, $6 in from $7 FF

Dangers:

8.Ritani very good second last start and fitter now from a good draw.

4.Prince Hareem  big run fresh up and 1600m suits.

12.Incantesimo  with the same front running tactics employed, could pinch it.

Race 5

The speed map shows a few looking to get handy ensuring an even tempo with early wide runners likely to forward id they button off midrace.

Confidence: 2/5

3.Long Jack looked good hitting the line alongside Avadane last start and definitely looks like 1400m will suit better. Awkward draw but with even luck, can win. RP $4, $4.60 in from $6.50 FF

Dangers:

8.Avadane  has looked good in both of her runs and 1400m will suit better. Should get a good run from that draw of 5.

6.Sherwood Forest  ran home in the quickest last 400m and 200m all day last meeting here over 1600m. Drawn to get a good run 3 back inner or trailing, depending on how he jumps, but is a good upset chance- big strong fella.

4.Quiz Kid  just had to do too much last start. Good run before that and with a soft lead or sit, can be hard to run down.

Race 6

The speed map shows good early speed and at least an even tempo maybe suiting off pace runners.

Confidence:1/5

3.Killarney is ready to go after a good trial run at Cambridge when closing off strongly alongside Cyber Attack who won impressively last week. Goes well fresh and with a good pace likely, can swamp them. RP $4.50, $6 FF

Dangers:

5.Casaquinman  with the right run can be right in this. He can run home in some top class closing sectionals and if he handles this way round, can certainly swamp these.

11.Bevan Street  should have a good campaign. Quiet trial for fifth looking full of running. Is best held up for one run at them and should get that run here.

4.Midnight Runner got all favours last start and won well. Maps to get a similar run.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

11.Wild Seas gets the right draw to get over these late. Top win last start. RP $4.50, $6 FF

Dangers:

5.Justacanta  is fitter now and no favours last start.

13.Walkin By  goes well here and should get the right run.

2.Braavos  won fresh up last campaign and drawn to repeat.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

3.Super Gee  is a good horse and with the blinkers on from a good draw can win. RP $5, $6 FF

Dangers:

10.Stilton  is a nice filly and on the fresh side will be storming home.

7.Mussolini  looked good winning at Avondale and drawn ideally.

 

Trentham

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

1.Charlie Horse last campaign looked like he would definitely be better with time. So after a break he was doing his best work late on a Dead 5 track in handy R72 field. Then second up he got back and really got into his work over the last 200 metres to run third running the best last 600m of the race which also compared very well to shorter races on the day. So third up over 1600m looks ideal. Plus he drops in class and gets 3kgs off his back which places him 5 lengths clear of these in the Formpro Ratings so the $4.50FF is very good value. He has drawn out which could be a plus by this time of day. RP $2.20, $4.50 FF

Trentham

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

7.Relda almost won last start and will be even fitter for this. Chris Johnson will give it every chance. RP $3.50, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

6.Very Appealing drawn to get all favours. After two good seconds.

 

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.Art Deco  will be improved by that run and gets 4kgs off. Tough mare. RP $3, $2.80 FF

Dangers:

3.Comeback just keeps on winning and should get every chance.

4.Dez is ready to go and the money has come for him.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

2.Look Out showed the ability to win more races last campaign and after two runs back, can upset back to a middle distance. RP $6, $11FF

Dangers:

1.Collinstreet unwound hard late to win well last start. Up to 2100m suits as does 4kgs off again.

5.Hard To Be Humble  hit the line well fresh up. More ground suits.

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

4.Sylvester  fitter now and nicely placed to beat these with Chris Johnson up. RP $3, $3.10 FF

Dangers:

2.Duffers Creek is very fit and the main danger.

3.Strolling Vagabond  with Lisa Allpress up will get every chance.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

6.London Express  won well fresh up and with natural improvement can win again with the light weight. RP $3, $2.70 FF

Dangers:

1.King Cougar  looks a definite improver and gets 3kgs off.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

1.Paddy Bourke  charged home last start to almost win. Back to his best now and a strongly run 1200m suits where he can get to the outside and charge late. RP $4.80, $6 FF

Dangers:

2.Booty Lara  looked good winning here last start.

5.Armaguard  will be charging late so the harder they go the better.

2.Desert Magic, if not taken on, could hold on.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

6.Platinum Rapper  closed off well for 2nd here last start behind a good one. Fitter and a heavy track suits. RP $3.40, $3.70 FF

Dangers:

9.Beltoy  has run 2nd here on a heavy track and gets 2kgs off.

1.Excelleration  looked very well fresh up. Fitter now and gets 4kgs off and is certainly capable of beating these.

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

1.Charlie Horse last campaign looked like he would definitely be better with time. So after a break he was doing his best work late on a Dead 5 track in handy R72 field. Then second up he got back and really got into his work over the last 200 metres to run third running the best last 600m of the race which also compared very well to shorter races on the day. So third up over 1600m looks ideal. Plus he drops in class and gets 3kgs off his back which places him 5 lengths clear of these in the Formpro Ratings so the $4.50FF is very good value. He has drawn out which could be a plus by this time of day. RP $2.20, $4.50 FF

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!