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Sunday preview below

 

Update: No further bets. I’ll update race 3 2 minutes out.

Good morning,

Just the one Quality bet so far today, race 3 7.Empress Tzu Hsi who looks very well placed at excellent value. i’ll post an update by noon.

Bet of the Day Race 4 1.Massachusetts $2.20 Ff 2nd 

Value bet of the day Race 3 7.Empress Tzu Hsi $6.50 FF Missed after getting every chance

Hawera

Confidence:1/5

7.Tarabeebee worked a bit on the pace last start and still fought gamely for second. Fitter now and 1400m from a good draw with Lisa Allpress up ticks a few boxes. RP $4

Dangers:

2.Heat Seeker ran home strongly last start once clear. Will get back but with a good pace likely could swamp them late.

1.Credit Manager 1st $3.40  ready to peak but wide draw makes it harder.

Race 2

Confidence 1/5

2.Mikjene drops in class after some handy races in stronger fields. RP $6, $7.50 FF

Dangers:

3.Ofa Orsome also drops back in class after an unlucky run last start. Gets 4kgs off.

11.Beautiful Man with a good run can be in this.

Race 3

Confidence:3/5

7.Empress Tzu Hsi tough run last start when caught 3 wide in the open in the fastest run race all day averaging 11.96 per 200m to the 600m mark which can be seen here. She was right there until 150m out and when she started to feel that effort, the rider eased her down. She has won here and rated 105 which would easily win this. Lisa Allpress jumps on and she maps to land close on a moderate tempo. This is a weaker R65 field and she looks ready to strike on the Dead track which she prefers over the heavy track last start. RP $3.50, $6.50 FF after opening at $8 FF

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

1.Massachusetts had a few close goes last campaign and was found wanting late. She does look stronger now from watching her trial third where she found the line well without being pushed. She gets this by default for me as I can’t see anything good enough that will get a good enough run to beat her. She qualifies for the bonus so will have been set for this fresh up. RP $2.20, $2.20 FF

Dangers

2.Cristal Bubble ran home strongly late behind two subsequent easy winners on a heavy track. Wide draw and better track are a query.

13.Savannah Belle 1st $5.50 was ridden out to run second in her trial to a subsequent winner.

Race 5

Confidence:2/5

1.Thomas Aquinas 1st $1.90 ran into a good one last start and drops back to 1600m from a good draw. RP $2.50

Dangers:

8.Aratoka game second last start and fitter now.

2.Nudge Bar is fitter now and drawn well.

Race 6

Confidence:2/5

1.Florence O’Reilly had her chance last start with a soft lead. But peaking third up from Auret stable from a good draw. Has to be hard to beat.

Dangers:

16.Declarada nice trial caught wide midfield and wasn’t pushed to run 4th. Ready to fire on debut from the Baker/Forsman stable.

6.Punta Mita up to 1600m helps and fitter.

9.Mizzena drawn well and ready to fire fresh up.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

1.Qian Gua found the line well when clear last start. Fitter now and the one to beat. RP $4, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

8.Beau Jeu can upset fresh up. Tough galloper with right rider up.

4.Caballero 1st $4.60  won well fresh up and should be right in this.

Race 8

Confidence:2/5

11.Charli Rose  1st $2.40  ran a strong third fresh up where she got back and found the line hard in the slower part of the track looking like she needs a middle distance. Looks stronger now and with a winning run likely is the one to beat. RP $3.00, $3.30 FF

Dangers:

6.Lady Style  also steps to a middle distance of a couple of warm up runs. Gets 4kgs off.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!