It is that time of week again – Free access to the Greyhound ratings, speed maps, replays and more here
The Quality bets this week were average. So what do I need to improve on and keep doing.They started off well with Sonaree sitting 3 wide in the open and still winning at around $2.90. His speed figures at his two previous starts were excellent so he was clearly the best horse in that race. Speed Ratings and the Formpro Ratings often clearly indicate which horses are the best in the race and it is good to take advantage of them when they are well placed to win. On Thursday afternoon, I mentioned to subscribers how well placed Inscription was placed at Ellerslie with him running the best closing 600m and 200m all day at his last two races. So I started gathering a few good favourites into her, including the two multi makers from the greyhounds on Friday that both won well at around $2 and $1.50.
So I knew a fair bit was riding on Inscription winning the first at Ellerslie. When are mare can run the closing sectionals she can run on an off track and get in on 51kgs with a significant pull in the weights over horses that have been going around for a while, despite mapping to get back in the 6 horse field, she was always going to be very hard to beat. The $3.20Ff on opening was big overs as I rated her $1.70 chance with 4/5 confidence. She got back and once balanced up was always going to come at them late which she did to get up comfortably. But she had to run the fastest last 200m all day to do it again. Trainer Ross McCarroll will turn her out till the Spring now. He has always said he is looking forward to seeing her over more ground, and any cut in the ground is ideal for her. So the middle distance WFA races and cups look ideal targets for her.
So a good start to the day. Reloaded looked well placed and had his chance and ran second. The winner was just too good with fresh legs coming from off the pace. Unless the horse’s name starts with a W and ends in inx, I’m always a bit nervous about taking horses second up into a campaign, even with a good record second up, so maybe I could have backed off there especially at the odds on price.
Then Quilista raced too keenly in front but fought back well. The only sign pre-race of her doing that was she had her head up going down with the stewards horse with the head cover on, but Peter Snowden said he was very happy with her, so went with that. She fought back well for second but no payout for that.
Then Charlie Horse looked very fit and ready in the last at Trentham, got out wider but just did not finish it off as expected. The money did come for Hi I’m Nikita and Charlie did drift in one particular market, so that could have been a sign of the run. Maybe he just needs more ground or not a puggy track.
Deprive looked very ready to win his race at Sydney. Much more relaxed than the previous week and the main danger, Cradle Mountain was a big drifter in markets, so he looked a standout with any luck in the running,which he almost didn’t get! They averaged 11.26 per 200m to the 600m mark, which was fast enough for him to win from last, but when the rider elected to try for luck in between them, I thought we might be in trouble. But he ducked down to the inside and you could see he was going to gather in the winner 100 metres out and he won like the very good horse he is.
On Sunday, Empress Tzu Hsi looked well placed to win, got the right run and just didn’t finish it off. Both she and Charlie Horse raced on wet biased tracks, so maybe with the clear vision of hindsight, I should have stayed away from those two meetings.
In summary, there were seven Quality bets with three winners which showed a small profit on level stakes, so little damage done. Inscription finished off some good multis from the midweek 3/5 confidence bets with Sonaree and the two Friday dogs. Plus a couple of nice quaddies struck at Eagle Farm and Hastings.
This week, we have some big fields at Te Rapa and Awapuni, then Ellerslie and Whanganui in the weekend. Maybe some Australia blackbooked runners will be well placed on decent surfaces. Rain is forecast later in the week, so we will just take it as it comes.
Today and tomorrow, I’ll be going through last week’s races here and in Australia, analysing the times and sectionals to add to the Blackbook.
I had some good feedback from last week’s article, so thanks for that. A couple mentioned they are learning to bet on the best placed runners and less on impulse bets, which is always a good habit to encourage if you want to have any chance of making money in this tough game of punting.
Enjoy the ride.