A good day off the Quality bets with 3 of the 4 runners winning returning 26.71 units based on the value staking plan with an outlay of 15.8 units = net profit of 10.91 units. Are you glad we stayed clear of Te Rapa and Trentham! Plus a bonus with the two multi makers coming in on Friday for the Multi punters.
Update: Haripour should get an ideal run from Blake Shinn and the money has come for him, so we are on. Missed after having his chance.
Update 5.08 p.m. Deprive- they ran the last two races in just on 1.11 and around 35.5 last 600m, and they are winning on the inner and centre. The money has been strong for him as well. The reports says he is looking better than last start. So recommend staying with him. 1st with a great ride from Rachel King.
Update 3.33 p.m. The track has been playing fairly with winners along the inside and out in the centre. I’m convinced Kolding is the best horse in the race and the only query is the widish draw. But I’m sure James will have a plan A and B depending on how he jumps. I’d say he would err on the side of going forward and getting handy as he really gives everything once asked to go and has that determined galloping action. He is relaxed and ready to win. 1st after James gave him every chance and traveled like a winner well out.
Update 2.12 p.m. Kings Brook looks better than last start. Very hard to beat as once she gets out and balanced, she really puts her head down and gives her best. 1st $2.30 and showed that determination to drive through and win once out.
I want to make sure we have every chance of making a profit today. With the rain at Te Rapa and the very heavy going at Trentham, especially in the straight according to the track manager, I just can’t select anything with confidence at either venue. So we’ll stick with the selections I know have done the times and sectionals and are well placed to win on better surfaces. They may all miss or could all win, but long term, I know we have a good chance of making a long term profit on these types of bets. The only one of today’s Quality bets that I’m unsure about is Deprive with the downgrade to a heavy 8, but as long as they are running 1.11 or better for the 1200m for races 5 and 6 there, he should be fine. I’ll be updating the four Quality bets two minutes before each race anyway.
Enjoy the ride.
Update 9.30 a.m. Randwick has been downgraded to a Heavy 8 and Deprive has an action that best suits a Slow to Good track. He’s a very good horse so just hold off backing him to closer to race time when we can see how the track is playing. Fine weather is forecast.
Update 7.50 a.m. Saturday:
The Quality bets are all in Australia detailed below. After they post the head to head options for Trentham and Te Rapa, there may be some good value bets there, but I will post either way by 11.30 a.m. along with an update for the Australia races. I had twenty one runners to sort through from my Black Booked runners for Saturday in Australia and five for new Zealand. My feeling is that some Australian trainers are placing their horses in the wrong races. And you can’t blame them with the big stake money on offer. Some will be dropping back in class in their next one or two starts and it is my job to identify them and if they are value, I’ll post them on here. So once again, that ‘P’ word comes into plat, patience. Remember, we can all pick a winner, but it is the losing ones in between that make all the difference. Keep a record of all your bets this week and see what you did well and what you can improve on. That’s your Sunday night job and write it down- it seems to hit home better when you physically use a pen and paper rather than your phone or computer. You will be amazed at how quickly you get much better in this tough game of punting.
Quality bets with units to bet using the Value Staking Plan:
Bet of the Day Randwick Race 7 9.Deprive $2.10 FF, RP $1.50 Updated 5.10 p.m. ( 4.2 units using the Value Staking Plan ) returned 8.82 units
Value bet of the Day Eagle Farm Race 9 5.Haripour $5.50 FF, RP $2.80 FF Updated 6.13 p.m. ( 4 units using the Value Staking Plan )
Speed map Special Flemington Race 2 4.Kings Brook $2.20 FF RP $1.80 FF Updated 2.13 p.m. ( 3.7 units units using the Value Staking Plan ) Returned 8.14 units
Sneaky of the Day Eagle Farm race 7 17.Re Edit $6.50 Ff ( Not a Quality bet )
Other Quality bets: Eagle Farm Race 5 5.Kolding $2.50 FF RP $1.90, Updated 3.33 p.m. ( 3.9 units using the Value Staking Plan ) Returned 9.75 units
Posted Friday 2 p.m. Trentham will be a ‘Bog Slog’ so pass on that meeting. The best bets there could be a couple of head to head bets.
Suggested Te Rapa late quaddie with the $20k bonus $28.80 for 10%
R6 2, 5, 9
R7 2, 7, 8, 11, 12, 18
R8 2, 7, 8, 18
R9 3, 4, 11, 17
Te Rapa has the rail coming in 11 metres to the true position which usually means a bias somewhere but you never know when or where it will be. They are big fields there, so pass on that except for the last quaddie races which has an injection of $20,000. I hate betting on biased wet tracks, as the enjoyable part of form analysis for me are using times, sectionals and class ratings combined with video analysis. Wet tracks just make it too hard to back horses with much confidence. Any one can pick a winner but the trick to making money is avoiding backing the losers in between. That’s why you have to find value runners that have the evidence to say they can win. It is as simple as that.
I only have a finite number of hours to do the form for Saturday, so why waste it on races where we shouldn’t be betting? One thing I am pleased about is getting emails and calls from subscribers who are getting much better at being more patient and avoiding those losing bets in between the winners. The hardest part is seeing a horse you may have punted seriously but for one or two reasons, sat on your hands, then see it roll home at good odds. My suggestion is to have separate betting accounts for your Serious and Action bets. The Action bets are for runners like that, where you could have a much smaller amount on those runners or take them in a multi with one of your serious bets. But if you are serious about having any chance of making money, stick to the well placed value runners. And the only way you can know if you are getting value is to give it a rated price ( RP ). To not have one is a bit like the Warriors, you are doomed to lose!
The first two Quality bets for Saturday are below. Next update will be at noon, 2 p.m. and 5 p.m. with any more Quality bets. No Heads Up this week. The next one will be for Tauranga on June 21st. Just a reminder that I will be running the Terminating Pick 6 syndicates in July. I’ve had a few queries about them so yes, save a bit for those. More details to follow later in the month.
Below are four Quality bets for Saturday. Next update will be at 8 a.m. Saturday. No Heads Up this week. The next one will be for Tauranga on June 21st.
Quality bets with units to bet using the Value Staking Plan:
Eagle Farm Race 5 5.Kolding $2.50 FF RP $1.90, Updated 3.33 p.m. ( 3.9 units using the Value Staking Plan )
Eagle Farm Race 9 5.Haripour $5.50 FF, RP $2.80 FF Updated 6.13 p.m. ( 4 units using the Value Staking Plan )
Randwick Race 7 9.Deprive $2.10 FF, RP $1.50 Updated 5.10 p.m. ( 4.2 units using the Value Staking Plan )
Flemington Race 2 4.Kings Brook $2.20 FF RP $1.80 FF Updated 2.13 p.m. ( 3.7 units units using the Value Staking Plan )
5.Kolding 1st $2.70 has won his three races very impressively this campaign all in very good speed ratings ( the last win in excellent time and easily with daylight back to third) and against older tougher horses. He gets in here on set weights for the Guineas and James knows him well. he has tactical speed so from the wide draw, he can just see how he jumps and look to slot in one off somewhere and with that superior form coming into this, it will take a top class effort to beat him. A Soft track won’t hinder his chances. RP $1.90, Currently $2.60 FF after opening at $3.20 FF
Kiwi horse Vigor Winner didn’t show much fight after getting a good run on a good pace and tiring. If it rained then he could come into it.
5.Haripour has been set for this by Chris Waller and he has drawn to get a winning run. He has won twice over 2400m and the way he found the line here last start and through the line with excellent closing sectionals, shows that he is right at his peak to win this. RP $2.80, $5.50 Ff
9.Deprive 1st $2.40 had to be very, very good to win fresh up when held up and driving through to win well in the end. he broke 11 seconds for every last 200m split and his last 200m in 32.76 in a fast race time. His time and sectionals indicate that he is going to win many more races. This track suits him with the rise in the straight where they tend to go hard in sprints and set it up for a closer. There looks to be plenty of speed in the race and a Soft 6 or 7 will be ideal for him with his form on similar tracks and his action and looks very well placed on the minimum again of 53kgs. RP $1.50, $2.10 FF
Race 2 2.15 p.m.
4.Kings Brook 1st $2.20 won easily last start in a very good speed rating that showed she will win more races. Drawn to get a good run on the pace and looks very hard to beat again. RP $1.80, $2.20 FF
17.Re Edit ran a top race last start when working early and being run down by runners who had better runs. The time was good and she will be very fit for this. James McDonald should be able to land her in a winning position near the pace and be a solid eachway chance from there. RP $5, $7 FF
Confidence: 1/5 in a tough race.
2.Sultan Of Swing 1st $8.50 ran a game second to the smart Inscription last start giving her plenty of pudding. He is fitter for that after a 35 day break and maps to get an ideal run behind an even tempo and be the one to beat. RP $4.80, $3.80 FF
5.He’s Cavalier fought well for third alongside Sultan Of Swing last start. Carries a light weight with the 3kgs off and if the inside is still ok, could prove harder to run down.
3.Bee Tee Junior is a quick improver off his good 4th fresh up. The harder they go, the better his chances.
4.Meeska Mooska has the best Formpro Rating after weight adjustments. Fitter third up now and gets 3kgs off from a good draw.
Race 6 Bonus $20k Quaddie preview
9.Italian Lover 1st $6 is a tough galloper and weighted to win and drawn to get a winning run in the trail behind a soft tempo. Fraser Auret doesn’t travel unless he is a winning chance. RP $6, $9.50
2.Cossack Warrior is a big tough horse at the peak of his form now. There is only a moderate tempo and from the wide draw, will need a good ride. If the inside is off, it may be a plus.
5.Elle Eye Are won really well last week and drawn to get a good run. May just need this being her first run over 2200m from 1600m.
1.Jochen Rindt maps to get an uncontested lead so third up with 3kgs off, can hold on for a place.
Confidence: 1/5 in an open race
In order: 2-11-12-18-7-8
8.Wooden Edge closed off nicely in good sectionals fresh up. Gets 3kgs off and drawn to get a good run. RP $5, $9.50 FF
7.Quantum won well last start and should get a good run.
18.Sarabande 1st $20 back to 1600m with a good tempo likely, will suit.
2.Caballero two strong wins and tries hard. Drawn well.
4.Lock It In ran a game 4th in a strong 3yo race here last start. Gets 2kgs off. RP $5
11.Manhattan Flame good third fresh up and can improve off that.
3.Effervescent drawn to get a good run and should be stronger now.
17.Deluxe Edition rates well and if the inside is off, he can get out wider with the light weight and upset.