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How my head got sore

Update 1.10 p.m. two Quality bets now posted here

It is always good to get positive feedback and there has been plenty of it lately. But I’m going to get a bit negative here. As I’ve mentioned before, we can all pick a winner but it is making sure we get a regular supply of them, at value prices, and decreasing the number of losing bets in between, that give you the chance to enjoy punting and have a fighting chance of making a long term profit. I’ve always just not felt right posting selections for every race as I know it must tempt subscribers to have a bet when in actual fact, I wouldn’t go near it even with Trumps money. Yes, I could pick the winner, but especially on wet tracks, my strike rate guarantees a big fat zero in your TAB account if you backed every one of them!

The two main factors that influence the result on slow to heavy tracks are track bias and the ability to handle the track conditions. I use the action of the galloper and form in similar going as a guide, and very occasionally the sectionals and times on wet tracks. But most of the time I’m just guesstimating and hoping I’m right. I’m sure you get no satisfaction out of that, as I sure don’t. My passion is for using times, sectionals and watching replays, along with other significant form factors, so what is the answer?

It has to be Australia where we consistently have better surfaces to assess the form on, especially this time of year. So that is where I’m going to be spending most of my time on, especially over the next few months. Last week we had four Quality bets, all in Australia. Three of them won for a decent profit. I really am getting a slightly sore head beating my head against the wall doing the form on wet tracks in New Zealand.

Today at Te Teko, I went through the fields and having walked the track a few times before, know that the inside few metres is significantly slower than the outside half of the straight, especially when it rains. The only runner I could sort out that had the ability to win and drew wide was Shiranui in the seventh race. But she has been scratched. What do I do? Do I now preview the meeting knowing there is a good chance that some of the field drawn near the inside have no chance of winning and may as well not start, or do the form on Warwick Farm, Doomben and Sale where I have eight blackbooked runners from previous post meeting analysis that I can do the form on, on tracks that are going to be running at 1.11 or better on? The answer is pretty logical isn’t it! Therefore, I’ll be posting my narrowed down selections by 1.30 p.m. for those meetings, plus any head to head bets at Te Teko as I will know what is happening there after four races.

Enjoy the ride,

Neil

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Good luck,

Neil

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About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!