Embracer looks fit and ready. The only Danger is 5.Jacks Bar who is ready to win but needs to get a good run from the wide draw and in a moderately run race, which is likely, he may get caught wide in the open. Suggested bet. Back Embracer to win on the tote and save on 5.Jack’s Bar to win. e.g. 4 units on Embracer on tote price at around $2.80 and 2 units on Jacks bar at $3.50 Ff 1st and 6 units outlaid for a 1 unit profit. Embracer had his chance and ran third.
I’ve been through a number of runners from my Blackbooked runners today and just found two that are well placed and at good value. Both are Quality bets and will be updated about 2 minutes before the race.
Race 8 3.24 p.m.
Head to head
Shebringsmerubies $1.85 to beat Hvar Abandoned
Shebringsmerubies has run two strong seconds and the last one was her best indicating she needs 1600m now the way she found the line. She is by Sebring who eat mud for breakfast with his best strike rate of 14% on heavy tracks compared to other track condition strike rates. She has an ideal action for a sloppy heavy track. She has drawn the inside but Hvar has also drawn in close. She should be able to be no more than two or three lengths behind Hvar on the turn, and could easily be in front of him by then, and with the 6kgs pull in the weights over Hvar, who had every chance leading in a soft tempo last start and showed little fight for fifth and his action suggests a better surface helps and he should struggle over the last 200m. She should have the measure of him over the last 100 metres comfortably. RP $1.30, $1.85
Sydney Warwick Farm
Race 5 5.05 p.m. NZ time
7.Embracer looks set to led all the away again here. Won really well last start when the blinkers went on doing just that in a very good speed rating and the second horse won well next up. He has drawn the inside and I can’t see him being taken on. This track suits him and even tough this is slightly harder, the second favourite, Bare Naked Lady, had every chance last start and couldn’t do it and the speed rating was slower than the two maiden races run just before her race. So it is hard to see her running down Embracer or anything else. The stable is confident he can win and a Soft 6 suits him ideally. RP $1.40, $1.95 FF