Saturday preview below

Update: Organza looks ready and the money has been strong for her. Hard to beat. Missed the jump and did well to get 2nd. Sandown quaddie helps a little though.

Update: Fragonard looks ready to run a race and the money has been strong for her. Excellent value for a place. 3rd after getting every chance.

Update: I’ll update both Quality bets, Fragonard and Organza 2 minutes before the race.

Update: No further bets. Recommended quaddies are below.

Ruakaka

Race 5 with a $20k Bonus

$9.60 for 10%

R5   2, 4, 8

R6   6, 10, 12, 15

R7    1

R8    2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11

Sandown

$48 for 10%

R6   1, 11, 12, 13

R7    1, 12, 13, 16, 17

R8    1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8

R9    1, 3, 5, 8

 

I heard someone ( his name was Neil) call Des Coppin’s Talk Back show last Sunday and said he reckons speed maps are a waste of time because once they jump, anything can happen. I have to agree, once they jump, things do happen, but generally speaking, you can predict where the favoured runners will be and the tempo to different degrees of confidence. The tempo is the biggest factor that determines the result of a race, so if you can confidently predict your selection is going to land in the first four on a slowish tempo, it should get every chance, whereas if it mapped to get back, it may prompt you to just ignore the race, lay it, or back one or two to even beat it. So I’m going to update all speed maps at Ruakaka today by noon to see how they can help us as punters and then I’m going to review them early in the week to evaluate their use. I’ll also indicate a confidence level with the speed maps, as the more confident you are of the tempo and positioning of the winning chances, the better are your chances of finding the winner.

The Speed maps are courtesy of Formproratings.co.nz which shows speed maps for all NZ gallops races based on their previous career starts.

I’ve narrowed the Quality bets down to two well placed runners who  map to get an ideal run. I won’t be able to update them 2 minutes before the start. The fields at Awapuni are interesting but no serious bets there for me with the heavy something ( It is a mystery to me why they don’t give a more descriptive reading of the track ( e.g. Heavy and holding – 1.15 for 1200m time predicted. Inside 5 metres likely to be off by race 4, Penetrometer readings indicate the straight progressively gets better towards the centre and just outside it. )

Just the two Quality bets – there may be another posted in the update at noon.

Bet of the day Rosehill race 3 8.Fragonard $1.80 for a place Quality bet and 3.9 units for a place with the Value Staking Plan

Value bet of the day Ruakaka Race 6 12.Mumms Jewel $4.40 in from $5.50 FF

Speed map Special Ipswich race 9 6.Organza $2.60 Ff and is a Quality bet 4.3 units using the Value staking plan

Sneaky of the day Ruakaka Race 8 6.No Loitering $16 FF

Update 11.29 a.m. Friday: ( Next update 5 p.m. )

Early Saturday Quality bets.  The Friday multi makers are here

Rosehill

Race 3

Confidence: 4/5  for a place

8.Fragonard ran a very good third to race rival Passage Of Time. She was fresh up then and the rider mentioned that she definitely needed that run after the race. This time she meets Passage of Time 5kgs better off and she had a very quiet hard held trial recently, showing she is much fitter for that first up run. She goes best on the fresh side and drawn to get all favours. It is a nice field but on that light weight with the run she will get, she has to be a very strong chance of placing. RP $1.40, $1.90 FF

Ipswich

Race 9

Confidence: 4/5

6.Organza is third up here from the Godolphin stable and is another well placed horse to win. She did very well last start when she drew wide, began best but was planted 3 wide in the open but still found when asked to go which is always a sign of a good horse at Randwick of that type of run. She strikes the right field here and from the draw, with her early speed, should land in the first four and on 54kgs, looks very, very hard to beat. RP $1.80, $2.90 FF

Sandown

Race 9

Confidence:3/5

7.Fabric Has now been scratched in Australia. was a dominant winner last start off a good run and the time and sectionals say she is going to win more races. There is going to be good tempo in this which is ideal for her and a soft track is also ideal with her breeding and action. From the draw, she should get a winning run about 4th or 5th and with the lighter weight with Craig Williams up, come through over the last 100 metres and be very hard to keep out. RP $2.50, $4 FF

Ruakaka

The best value bet here is Mumm’s Jewel in race 6

Race 1

The speed map ( Confidence 4/5 )  shows Valante very likely to lead and a few looking to settle handy with a moderate tempo likely and suit the first four in running.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Valante maps to get an uncontested lead here and if he can produce an equal effort to his recent ratings, he has to be hard to run down. RP $2.80, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

6.Dragon Storm if can trail Valante, is the logical quinella.

7.Scaglioni  did very well last start. Can upset with the right run.

 

Race 2

The speed map ( Confidence 1/5 ) shows Our Prom King likely to lead and six others wanting to get handy and an even tempo likely suiting all runners. Always hard to predict maiden race maps and tempo

Confidence: 1/5

12.Victoria  strong second fresh up and drawn to get all favours. RP $5, $4.80FF

Dangers:

1.Lord Polonius  looks the obvious danger.

Race 3

The speed map ( Confidence 4/5 for the speed map ) shows Magic of the Sun and Admiral sharing a moderate tempo suiting the first four runners.

One of the four should win but I have no idea which one!

7-9-6-1

Race 4

The speed map ( Confidence level 2/5 ) shows a moderate to even tempo that could suit the first half of the field.

Confidence: 2/5

11.Spoil Sport  looked good winning her maiden at Pukekohe on a dead track then failed on a heavy track next up. Maps to get a cosy run in behind the speed and from the Tiley stable, will be ready to win. RP $5

Dangers:

1.Quizmaster  is a nice horse with a decent weight. Should get every chance and be the one to beat.

7.Stilton closed off fast at Ellerslie in strong closing sectionals over 1400m. There looks to be a moderate to even speed here so she may get her chance to get balanced up early and with her turn of foot, get over these late. The harder they go the better and the 8 horse field means she will settle closer.

8.Socialights  should go forward and with a good run, be right in it.

 

Race 5 First leg of the TAB quaddie $20k bonus so should get to around $100k.

The speed map ( Confidence level 4/5 ) shows Lucyinrio and Memories Only likely to lead out and if they use their brains they should share a moderate tempo and give themselves an edge. Update: Chris Gibbs said they will be riding Rikki Tikki Tavi closer to the lead with the Visor Blinkers going on and Irish Call, which had a late declared rider and I thought was going to be scratched, will also inject more speed with Sam Spratt, a positive rider, into the race. So that should ensure an even tempo suiting all runners.

Confidence:2/5 and note any bias during the first four races. It usually plays in favour of the first four runners ( Like most tracks on an evenish surface.

8.Memories Only won very well here when given no peace in front. Drawn to either lead or take a cosy trail and is a definite chance from there. RP $3.40, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

2.Lucyinrio  may get a soft lead or soft sit 2^nd outer. Always hard to run down when that happens.

4.Rikki Tiki Tavi  always seems to find a way to get beaten. The Visor Blinkers go on which can help. Needs a perfect ride to win so $2.80 FF is too short.

1.Seventh Up looked good winning his trial. If they go too hard, which is unlikely, he can win.

 

Race 6

The Speed Map ( Confidence level of speed map 4/5 ) shows plenty of early speed right across the field so a solid tempo suiting runners getting a soft run in behind or off the pace.

 

Confidence: 2/5

12.Mumms Jewel  was an impressive winner here last start when going out 3 lengths slower than the R72 race won by Memories Only yet kicked away to win in faster overall time. She rated an FR of 97 which is rare for maidens.  That was from a wide draw and she has drawn much better this time. Up in class but has certainly shown she can step up here. A couple of other handy types which will be near her, make it a bit harder and there looks to be many on pace runners. RP $3.80, $4.80 in from $5.50 FF

Dangers:

15.The Fame Game  will have to snag with the early pace inside from the wide draw. But the good tempo will suit and he can certainly charge at these late. $34 FF

9.Chiquitita  strong second in R72 grade last start. Drops in class but drawn wide so needs a good ride.

2.Von Trapp  just went too hard up front last start. he is likely to get fired up again with others looking to lead and can get beaten so $4.50 FF is no value giving weight away as well.

6.Pink Graffiti  drawn to get a winning run and has rated well enough to be in this.

10.Cin Cin  fought well to a nice horse last start and drawn and weighted well.

Race 7

The speed map ( Confidence level 3/5 ) shows early speed out wide and a few looking to get handy so should be fast early and even from there suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

15.Flourobus should get a good run and did rate strongly in a 3yo race at Ellerslie last start. Rates on top in the Formpro Ratings after weight adjustments. RP $5 $8 in from $11 FF

Dangers:

1.Super Gee is a nice horse and should get a good run on the pace. Deserved favourite.

4.Alberation is a nice horse and drawn to get a good chance to upset on the better surface which he prefers.

3.The Ice Knight was held up at a vital stage last start but ran on ok. Tiley will have him ready. Awkward draw though.

13.Boogie Easy  did well last start off a tough run 3 wide in the open. Maps to lead and is a chance if she can get a softish one or bias is in her favour.

Race 8

The speed maps show( Confidence level 3/5 for the map) plenty of early speed all over especially out wide so it should be an even tempo at least and likely to suit all runners.

Confidence:1/5 in an open race.

6.No Loitering  did well off a wide run last start when a close 4th in a strongly run race. Rates on top in the FR by 2 lengths and maps to get a better run. RP $7, $16 FF

Dangers:

9.Copper Fox  has been racing strongly and should get every chance with the even tempo likely. RP $4

10.Verbalizer showed a very good turn of foot last start.

7.Obsessive nice second fresh up and quick improver.

8.Poker Face will get back and needs a good pace. Can win with all the breaks.

4.Light Shadow racing strongly and rates well. maps to get a good run.

Manawatu

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

4.Gallante was just beaten at Trentham and jumps well. Looks the best placed. RP $3

2.El Corby  won really well on the flat and hurdles well. Looks the main danger.

7.Max reverts back to hurdles and is a chance if they go too hard.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

1.Rosewood probably would have won last start at WFA so to get in here at just 2kgs over the minimum makes he the obvious one. She won this last year getting out wide and the two negatives are the inexperienced rider on a track that will very likely favour horses racing on her outer with 600m to go. RP $2.40, $1.80

Dangers:

4.Dez  was ok fresh up on a track surface better than he needs. The interesting thing is the blinkers going on, so he must have improved since Trentham. Riccarton is his target so may just need this one.

9.De Gaulle  ran on ok fresh up and has won here on a heavy track. Drawn wide which will be a plus.

5.Strolling Vagabond  gets 2kgs off and drawn to keep away from the inside.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

5.Des Du Jeu  put in that super effort here last year and has won both of his steeplechase races. Has had two runs back and ready to win. RP $3, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

7.Kipkeino  won his maiden steeplechase at Wanganui very well and after two runs back he will be fitter and you can see why the money has come for him from $4.80 to $3.80 FF

3.Gargarin is tough and jumps well, two ingredients needed to win a race like this.

1.Wise Men Say  has won fresh up in his last two campaigns but gives a bit of weight to some fit horses.

Race 6

Confidence:2/5

3.Whatsup  was beaten by a top ride from Lisa Allpress last start over 1600m. He drops back to 1200m and has natural speed and should be able to get out wider from the wide draw and with 2kgs off, is a good eachway chance. RP $5, $6.50

Dangers:

8.Rufus Ruffcut ran an improver’s third last start and the money has come for it.

4.Imblaze with two runs back will be fitter and gets 3kgs off.

10.Play The Field in top form and gets 3kgs off.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

5.Tiro big run last start coming from a long way back. RP $4

Dangers:

6.Took The Catch drops back in distance with a freshen up. Drawn out which will help and could upset.

9.Very Appealing won well last start but drawn the inside which may count against.

2.Happy Star  won well last start and keeps getting better.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

8.Wafer  ran a good third last start and is getting better now. Wide draw should be a plus. RP $4.50

Dangers:

2.Bojangles fitter after two runs back and ready to win.

9.Lady Verawood  won well last start. Wide draw should be a plus with the 2kgs off.

7.Snowfall  won well here last start. needs a good ride if the inside is off.