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Saturday preview and Speed Map Challenge

Update: Tuesday June 18th 10.45 a.m.

Below you can see my self assessments on the speed maps from Ruakaka. The sectionals can be seen here to help your analysis for future winners for free as well. Overall, the maps proved very useful in 4 of the 8 races.

Firstly the Saturday preview is here

I heard someone ( his name was Neil) call Des Coppin’s Talkback show last Sunday and said he reckons speed maps are a waste of time because once they jump, anything can happen. I have to agree, once they jump, things do happen, but generally speaking, you can predict where the favoured runners will be and the tempo to different degrees of confidence. The tempo is the biggest factor that determines the result of a race, so if you can confidently predict your selection is going to land in the first four on a slowish tempo, it should get every chance, whereas if it mapped to get back, it may prompt you to just ignore the race, lay it, or back one or two to even beat it. So I’m going to update all speed maps at Ruakaka today by noon to see how they can help us as punters, and then I’m going to review them early in the week to evaluate their use there. I’ll also indicate a confidence level with the speed maps, as the more confident you are of the tempo and positioning of the winning chances, the better are your chances of finding the winner.

The Speed maps are courtesy of Formproratings.co.nz which shows speed maps for all NZ gallops races based on their previous career starts.

Ruakaka Speed maps for all races with comments and confidence levels.

Race 1

The speed map ( Confidence 4/5 )  shows Valante very likely to lead and a few looking to settle handy and secure the trail behind Valante which Dragon Storm is likely to look for from the inside draw but may be hard pressed to hold out Smedley from barrier two. A moderate tempo likely and suit the first four in running.

Result: It ended up being an even tempo when the rider on Rocanic kicked up to hold out Valante and they shared an even tempo allowing Dragon Storm from last and Nothing Trivial to quinella it. If Rocanic had settled for the trail as mapped, they would have been able to go at a moderate tempo and the result would have been different with those two fighting it out. Map assessment 5/10

Race 2

The speed map ( Confidence 1/5 ) shows Our Prom King ( Set a good tempo last start here ) likely to lead and six others wanting to get handy and an even tempo likely suiting all runners. Always hard to predict maiden race maps and tempo though with the lack of form.

Result: Our Prom King was the obvious leader although it is always hard to get a maiden map right, it certainly was in this case. It led all the way paying $46 with at least two readers backing it. Here Comes Favvy mapped to get 2nd outer, did, and the quinella paid $479! Map Assessment 8/10

Race 3

The speed map ( Confidence 4/5 for the speed map ) shows Magic of the Sun and Admiral sharing a moderate tempo suiting the first four runners. So it makes Hanger’s chances look harder than his current $3.30 price reflects.

Assessment: Admiral did end up sharing the pace with magic of the Sun as the map showed, but they ran along in 12.09 200m sectionals to the 600m mark so an even tempo did end up suiting hanger who just got home. Amazing Az came home very nicely for third and needed the run. map Assessment 6/10

Race 4

The speed map ( Confidence level 2/5 ) shows a moderate to even tempo that should suit the first four runners.

Assessment: They averaged 12.36 per 200m to the 600m mark, the second slowest of the day, so the map got the tempo right. Mac Attacka mapped to get the run her got 5th outer and won well. 7/10

 

Race 5

The speed map ( Confidence level 4/5 ) shows Lucyinrio and Memories Only likely to lead out and if they use their brains they should share a moderate tempo and give themselves an edge. Update: Chris Gibbs said they will be riding Rikki Tikki Tavi closer to the lead with the Visor Blinkers going on and Irish Call, which had a late declared rider and I thought was going to be scratched, will also inject more speed with Sam Spratt, a positive rider, into the race. So that should ensure an even tempo suiting all runners.

Assessment: After the scratchings of Seventh Up and Irish Call, this looked like a very strong map to punt into. Lucy was well ridden by Trudy Thornton controlling the tempo outside Memories Only and was able to sprint home in the fastest last 600m all day of 34.78. Map assessment 10/10 

Race 6

The Speed Map ( Confidence level of speed map 4/5 ) shows plenty of early speed right across the field so a solid tempo suiting runners getting a soft run in behind or off the pace.

Assessment: Once Mumms Jewel got the lead, the rest backed off including Von Trapp who raced keenly again 4th outer and ran home well for second. They had their chance to run her down but she was just too strong- needs 1400m now according to Chris Gibbs and the way she puts her head down and extends means she will be tough as well over more ground, especially out in front. Map Assessment 5/10

Race 7

The speed map ( Confidence level 3/5 ) shows early speed out wide and a few looking to get handy so should be fast early and even from there suiting all runners.

Assessment: They average 12.02 seconds per 200m to the 600m mark, the second fastest all day. The map showed at least that so for Red Dynamo to hang on was a good effort. Super Gee was the obvious blackbooker and with a clean beginning would have won easily. Map Assessment 7/10

Race 8

The speed maps show ( Confidence level 3/5 for the map) plenty of early speed all over especially out wide so it should be an even tempo at least and likely to suit all runners. Assessment: The map got this correct with the tempo as they ran the fastest tempo all day to the 600m mark averaging 11.83 seconds per 200m which set it up for closers. Light Shadow mapped to get a good run midfield.  Map Assessment 9/10

 

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Some users, instead of ringing the 0900 36767 number now like to deposit $10 into my Bank account ANZ 01-0677-0114026-00 and then text me on 027 352 6402 for the the Formpro current and new password which will last till next Thursday night, which can be done easily. ( Or $5 for  Day pass)

Good luck,

Neil

Enquiries to Neil at [email protected] or text or phone 027 352 6402

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!