Home » Results » Saturday preview below

Saturday preview below

A good day with both Quality bets coming in and if you took them with the Multi Makers from Friday night, you could have doubled your payout. Plus the Money Shot easily nailed his two best sports bets. Look out for the Terminating Pick 6 syndicate post on Monday.

Update: Skarloey has been strongly backed and looks a ball of muscle. Just needs the gaps at the right time to get over these. What a ride by Parkesy! He knew he was the best horse, got him out well and got him into a winning trailing position and was just too good from there for these. The bookies might be going for their bottle under their desk!

Update: Sanchez looks very well with a great coat. Hard to beat as he can get out to the better part about 6 widths and wider. Good strong win. Back for Skarloey’s race later. $5.80 on tote

Update: No head to heads- gee, the prices on offer for those are at a very poor percentage! back for Sanchez’s race at 1.15 p.m.

Update 8 a.m. Saturday next update by noon with any head to head or other bets.

Bet of the day Hastings Race 9 9.Skarloey $5 FF in from $7 FF( Updated 3.38 p.m. )

Value bet of the Day Hastings Race 5 5.Sanchez $7 FF  ( Updated 1.15 p.m. )

Speed map Special Ruakaka Race 3 5.Copper Mine $7.50 FF

Sneaky of the day Ruakaka Race 2 2.Saintly Way $5 FF ( and money back for 2nd, 3rd or 4th up to $30 if it is your first bet on the race. )

Ruakaka suggested late quaddie:

$32.40 for 10%

R5    2, 3, 4, 5, 11, 14
R6     3, 5, 7
R7     1, 2, 3
R8     4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12

Hastings suggested late quaddie for $12 for 10%

R7   1, 2, 3, 6
R8   1, 2, 8
R9    9
R10    1, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16

The only two Quality bets so far for Saturday and are Sanchez in Race 5 at Hastings at $7 FF and Skarloey race 9 at $5 FF and are detailed below. None in Australia where track conditions are tricky.

The Friday Multi Makers are here

Apologies – no Heads Up this week ( The Multi winner will be announced at our next Heads Up ) but the Money Shot has sent through his best two sports bets for the weekend detailed below:

Two good bets for the weekend of sport;

AFL Friday 9.50pm Geelong v Adelaide

Geelong -22.5 @ $1.87 Yes by 27 points

The Cats have developed a terrible record off the bye week.  Last week’s loss to Port Adelaide was the 8th consecutive loss coming off the bye.  Each time though they have bounced back the following week with a win.  I think that trend will continue tonight.  Geelong are at home and are close to full strength.  Expect a strong performance and for them to cover the 22.5 point start.

In the Super Rugby Semis there is great value in the Jaguares to beat the Brumbies, this game kicks of at 10am Saturday morning.  Only one team in the last 10 semi final games of this competition has managed to win away from home.  The Jaguares disposed of the Chiefs last week who are a better team than the Brumbies.  Factor in the travel factor and I think the Jaguares cover the 5.5 point start.

Jaguares -5.5 @ $1.90 yes easily covered

 

Ruakaka

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

5.Not Usual Grace  looked good in his trial when handy and was cruising all the way to run second. She could have easily won the heat and from the handy draw, can get a good run and if the favourite gets caught wide, which is always a chance from the 1000m start here, he could beat him home. RP $5, $8 FF and worth a bet in the Money Back option for 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

Dangers:

1.Jager Bombed has drawn wide and needs a very good start to be able to cross over from that wide draw. If he misses it by half a length, he is likely to have to work too much to get handy or 2nd outer and be vulnerable late.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

2.Saintly Way  fresh up worked hard early to get 2nd outer and the tempo was good, so he did well to lead and only tired in the last 100 metres in the slower ground and the first two got better runs and came wider in the straight. Drawn to do less work and with natural improvement, is a nice eachway chance with in-form Craig Grylls on board. RP $4, $5.50 FF $You can back him to win for up to $30 and get your money back if he runs 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

Dangers:

1.Here Comes Faffy  solid second last start and fitter now with 4kgs off.

7.Massachusetts  drawn to have to do work early and always seems to find one or two too good.

Race 3

The speed map shows Copper Mine likely to lead out with Blood Warrior and Mumm’s Jewel likely to hunt out to get on the pace. O’Angel should get all favours on the fence in the trail or three back.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Copper Mine  bolted in here on debut over 1200m leading all the way. He then won fresh up at Te Rapa trailing and showed good strength to run down the leader. Then second up he was a bit slow away from the wide draw, had to work to get handy 3 wide open, was 2nd 300m out and fought well for fourth, a very good run. He is very fit now and maps to get out and get on the rail and lead early. Then Calder just has to decide to either hold out Blodd warrior or let him take the lead and get the last go at him. Either way, he does have the advantage over Blood Warrior in running and with his strength late, he is good value to beat the favourite. RP $4, $7.50 and $2.20 Ff

Dangers:

4.Blood Warrior is a big strong galloper who is unbeaten in both starts. Last start he showed good speed to lead and kicked well, but ran about a little and was a bit green and held on ok. This is another step up in grade and it takes a very good horse to go bang, bang bang stepping to R72 grade against fit, race savvy horses. He opened at $2.50 and came into $2.20 quickly. He should get an ok run on the pace but he is likely to be vulnerable late to something sitting on his backside.

8.Mumms Jewel held on well to win here last start but she is racing like she wants 1400m now and Chris Gibbs also mentioned that after her win. The time was just ok so from the wide draw, she is likely to go forward but will have to work harder than last start and up in class, means she is likely to get beaten.

2.O’Angel  from the inside draw with a good run likely, can get into a place at nice odds.

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

4.Grand Award  did very well fresh up here when caught midfield 3 wide in the open and still kept closing for fourth. Drawn to get a better run and looks to have the ability to win a 1600m race like this and go on to decent form over more gtound. RP $3.70, $4.40 FF in from $4.60 FF

Dangers:

1.Kiwi Ace  good run fresh up and fitter third up now from a good draw and will be on the pace.

12.Chapeau  drawn wide which is always a negative here.

13.Cologne  good third last start and fitter now on a better surface which suits.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

3.Flourobus  closed off strongly here last start over 1600m and is rock hard fit now. Drawn to get a good run and be the one to beat. RP $4, $5 FF

Dangers:

2.Tryfan  good run last week and very fit now. Recent class dropper and is tough.

4.Call Me Murphy  did well last start when caught wide here. Needs a good ride but fitter now.

14.Red Senna  drawn to get all favours and can place from there.

5.Our Prom King will no doubt try for an all the way win and with natural good  improvement could hold on.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

3.Von Trapp was restrained to fourth outer here last start and got keen, but ran on well late. He may be allowed to lead this time from the good draw and be hard to run down. RP $3.70, $4.40 FF

Dangers:

5.Loose Cannon  won well here on debut and good 4th in a strong field second up. Nice trial and with a good run, is a winning chance.

7.One Kotukustreet nice horse and with a good run likely, is in this.

Race 7

The Speed map shows Lucyinrio likely to lead or share it with Magic Of The Sun. Inanna with the light weight will go forward and maybe force Lucyinrio to lead and then sit 2nd outer, putting Magic Of The Sun in the trail and a moderate tempo likely suiting the first six runners.

Confidence: 2/5

3.Lucyinrio  last start here over 1200m sat outside the leader and kick strongly to win easily and had the best Speed Rating all day and also ran the fastest last 600m all day, so she is right back to her peak and the 1400m is ideal for her. She should be able to lead and if not taken on, with that race fitness edge, at the peak of her form on the minimum of 54kgs, she looks well palced to win again. RP $3.40, $$4.40 FF after opening at $6 less but with a scratching after she opened.

Dangers:

2.Hello It’s Me  has won both of her last two campaigns fresh up. Then she went on to run third at WFA at Ellerslie. The negative she maps to land about 7th and with the likely moderate tempo, she will need to get a clear passage to get closer on the turn. Money has come for her off the back of very positive trainer comments.

1.Seventh Up  will likely be 3 back  or 4 back inner and need the breaks and a decent tempo, but if he gets them, he will win.

4.Hanger  should snag and get back. had all favours last start when just winning against a  weaker field. $4.20 is too short.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

4.Dragon Storm did well to win here last start. Should be hard to beat again. RP $5

Dangers:

6.Prior Engagement  has won here and relaxes well and sustains a good sprint. The harder they go, the better his chances.

7.Caballero  needs a middle distance now and drawn to get every chance.

9.Poker Face had no luck last start. More ground suits now.

10.Red Dynamo won well setting an even tempo here last start. Looks tough and could pinch it.

Hastings

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

14.Woodsman  was way too good when debuting over hurdles at Te Rapa. He has natural pace and with that fitness run at Tauranga last week, he looks well placed to lead these a merry chase with his good hurdling ability. RP $4.50, $7 FF

Dangers:

7.Delegate  beat home Gallante here and has gone two nice races since. Jumps well.

2.Tommyra  ran 4th in this last year and is in better form than he was for that.

4.No Change ran a game second in this last year and is very fit now.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

4.Strolling Vagabond  maps to get every chance here and on the better surface with 2kgs off, can win again. RP $4.00, $4.40 FF

Dangers:

3.Sylvester  should get every chance from the good draw and tries hard.

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

5.Sanchez two starts back won decisively on a Dead 4 track in maiden company rating an FR of 98 which is very rare for a maiden win. But the sectionals and speed rating tell us it was an effort of a horse that will win a few races. Then last start on a bog at Whanganui, he ran a fair race for fourth. Back on a better surface, he looks ideally placed here to settle behind midfield and with the big field, they should go along at an even tempo, which will allow Jonathan Parkes to get him going, and he does look like he is struggling when that happens, but he relaxes so well, it takes him about 200 metres to reach top gear, but when he does, he just sustains it and should beat these. RP $3.00, $7 FF

Dangers:

12.Akela Belle  rates well and should get a good run.

3.Leading Role has been backed in but doesn’t win very often.

9.Mamba  has had plenty of chances with good runs and been beaten. 2kgs helps and a good draw.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

1.Zedace  is a good jumper and is very fit now. RP $3.50

Danger:

3.It’s A Wonder tends to get a bit keen and on a better surface is likely to do that again and be vulnerable.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

1.Wise Men Say  almost won this last year when 2nd to Justa Charlie. Jumps well and will be improved by that fresh up run on a testing track. RP $4.00

Dangers:

3.Chocolate Fish ran a close third in this last year and is peaking nicely for this fourth up

2.Shamal won his Te Rapa race very well and showed how tough he is, but he has had a 42 day break, which may make him vulnerable in the straight.

6.Zardetto  jumps well and ran a game third to Shamal at Te Rapa.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

1.Up ‘n’ Gone  almost won here two back and didn’t like the heavy track last start but ran ok. Gets 4kgs off from the good apprentice up and can win this. RP $4, $6.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Beauty Star is a nice horse but still learning. Wide draw  makes it tougher.

8.Kiwiana nice filly and drawn to get all favours.

Race 9

Confidence: 3/5

9.Skarloey bolted in at Whanganui when he was able to get out wider in an R65 1340m race. He is even better on a better surface and although he is up in class, he rated an FR of 105 there which is very rare for an R65 winner. He has drawn nicely and should land around midfield and with a decent tempo likely, the gaps should open for him and allow Parkes to drive him home. RP $3.00, $5 FF in from $7 FF

Dangers;

3.Lincoln Hills won well last start but against a weaker field. 60.5kgs will tell over the last 100 metres.

5.Atlanta Peach  very nice trial and likely to be set for Riccarton and need it – wide draw no help either.

Race 10

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

11.Spring Bouquet  big run fresh up and well bred. Drawn to get a good run and won second up.

1.Almo Street  drops in class and rates strongly with 3kgs off.

5.Motivation  goes well fresh and with Johnson up, will be a chance.

7.Finding Nemo  looked good on debut. Lisa Allpress sticks with him.

10.Boundtobehonoured smart fresh up win and good 4th second up.Drawn ok.

13.Belle Tem  gets in on a winning weight and fitter now.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!