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Thursday preview below

Update: No Quality bets today.

Multi of the day: The Head To Head with Mizz Lizzie and Loubiton to win to return $36 for every $10

Race 5 Head to Head

Miss Lizzie $1.80 v Play The Field $1.85 Missed

Miss Lizzie has won her last two really well and two starts back showed real toughness to win on the very heavy track. So she is in top form. She has raced Play The Field three times and each time has beaten Play The Field home and given her weight each time as well. This time she meets her 1.5kgs better off, has drawn wide, which is a big advantage in itself over Play The Field who has drawn down on the inner, and she rates 3 lengths better than Play The Field after weight adjustments. Plus Play The Field was able to get out wide last start in a weaker R65 race to win. So I am struggling to find a reason why Play The Field can beat home Miss Lizzie and have rated her a $1.30 chance.

Good morning,

A Whanganui  local has told us there has been light rain all night and with it still going, we will have a very heavy track at Whanganui which means a distinct advantage to runners drawn out that will get their chance to get out to the fast lane after a few races. There is one horse that will be able to do that and has the times, sectionals, recent form there, plus the right rider on, to win. There’s not a lot of value in her, but she should win.

I’ll post an update by noon. You can enter the Terminating Pick 6 syndicate here

Race 7

Confidence:3/5

3.Loubiton 1st $2.20 bolted in here last start on a similar bog by getting back and wide, led 600m out and was handling the ground easily which allowed her to put a big gap on them. Even though she beat nothing, when compared to the previous two races, her times and sectionals say she would have done the same to them and many were race winners. So she steps back to 1350m from the 1600m but her wide draw will allow her to get back and do the same thing again to horses that are either fresh o struggling to find form. There isn’t a better rider that knows exactly where to go and when here, so Lisa Allpress is a real plus. RP $1.60, $2.00 FF

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

The bookies have said they feel Cheeky Az is a good thing at $1.35 after two good runs. But I feel he can get beaten on the bog. His action says he would prefer a slow or better surface. He ran a distant second on debut to a good one on a heavy 10 but they ran 1.13.8 then and next up at Waverley he ran similar time on a slow track getting out wide. They are going to run a slightly slower time here of around 1.20 for the 1200m which will be just a real struggle for most, so would you want to be on at $1.35? So it does create value.

2.Billy The Kid 3rd on debut was able to get out 3 wide with cover at New Plymouth on a very heavy track and after getting out wider on the turn, fought on well out wide for third with an ideal action for a slog. Then second upat Waverley, he got amongst other runners and didn’t seem happy and it was on a better track. He wasn’t persevered with once beaten. But back here, on a bog, plus with the blinkers going on which will help him focus better, as well as Lisa Allpress, he will be able to get to the outside and in a weak field, can upset the favourite. RP $5, $8.50 FF

Dangers:

11.She’s Got The Look 2nd  has run second here on a bog and although her recent trial didn’t inspire you to back her fresh up, Dummy Myers could easily turn that round.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!