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Wednesday preview below

Update: The head to head in race 2 of Windy Heights $1.90 to beat home Nulli Secundis looks good value. No other bets.

Counties

Good morning,

Some nice horses going round in some weak races, so there could be some value. No Quality bets so far but there may be in the update by noon.

Good luck,

Neil

Bet of the day Race 2 2.Windy Height $2.80 FF

Value bet of the Day Race 3 10.Quizzy Lizzy $8.50 FF 1st $10 

Multi of the day Windy Height into Race 7 5.Sapella $1.55 to return $43.40 for every $10

Suggested quaddie for $27 for 50%

R4  1, 4, 7
R5   7, 8
R6   1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
R7    5

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

2.Windy Height ran the race of a next up winner last start at his third run, and first over ground this campaign, when fifth at Tauranga in a stronger R72 field. He has an ideal action for a slog in the bog and is a strong horse. Facing horses out of form or Nulli Secundus who just beat a weaker R65 field here and battled in a stronger R72 last start and rates well below Windy on a testing track. RP $2.40, $2.80 FF

Race 3

1.Sham On Toast on debut got back, over raced early under others, was held up and ran on well when clear. But he’s just too short at $1.80 here second up and and if he over- races again, this long slog down the straight just makes him vulnerable so it does create value elsewhere.

10.Quizzy Lizzy looks the best value of the rest. She looked good winning her trial at Avondale when handy and had a very good action for getting through the ground, plus she wanted to race and win. Then in her last trial left handed at Taupo drew 6, snagged, was caught 3 wide in the open but when asked to go wanted to race the others and ran a close second. Trainer Stephen marsh ahs her ready to win on debut and from the good draw, with her early speed, she maps to land in the first four, and with Craig Grylls riding in top form, she can upset these on debut. RP $5, $8.50 FF

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

4.Vincentius won third up last campaign over 1400m on a heavy track. He ran on well in the slower part of the track last start second up at Te Aroha. Drawn out, which should be an advantage and gets 2kgs off. RP $4

Dangers:

1.Call me Bob  is a nice horse third up from the Tiley stable. Include in quaddies.

7.Dudewithattitude  ran a game third at Tauranga and will improved. If inside is ok, include.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

7.Frozen  top second here on debut and was a bit flat second up. From top stable and ready to win now. RP $2.80, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

8.Geri a really good second on debut driving late in the slower ground. Nice wet track action.

Race 6

Confidence:  1/5 in the banana skin leg of the quaddie.

Include all but 6, 11 and 12

Race 7

Confidence:2/5

5.Sepella ran on well second up here then last start, third up, got back, and with 600m to go lost touch with the field and did very well to get through for second closing hard late in the fastest last 600m of the race and was very good in the context of the day. So the step to 1600m looks ideal and has drawn to get out away from what s likely to be a slower inside and be hard to beat. RP $2.40, $2 FF

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!