Thursday preview below

Update 4.20 p.m. Ruffy Rahtwo had the form franked with Big Ben winning the previous race and look very fit. The track has improved but I’m not concerned with that as he has the breeding and action to say he will be fine. Has been strongly backed and Lisa will give him the right run. Good bet. 2nd after getting every chance.

Update: No further bets

Good morning,

Just the one Quality bet so far today in the last race, Ruffy Rahtwo at $4.50 Ff. I’ll update him 2 minutes before the race. I’ll post an update by noon with any other bets.

Bet of the day Race 10 2.Ruffy Rahtwo $4.50 FF

Suggested multi with Race 6 2.Beauty Star $3.30 Ff

 

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

4.Trendy Belt   did very well last start when caught 3 wide in the open on a good tempo and kept finding after leading 150m out and was beaten by a nice horse with strong winning form coming out of that race. maps to get a good run. She should be peaking noiw but I’ve gone back to 2/5 confidence because that was a hard run last start and she may be a bit flat and 8.Lily D’Or looks a nice one after an easy trial win  and is making her debut. RP $3.20, $3.60 FF

Race 6

The speed maps shows a decent amount of leaders and on speed runners which should set up for an off pace runner.

Confidence:2/5

2.Beauty Star on debut looked good charging home wide for second over 1200m when they went hard up front. His last 600m was the second fastest of the four 1200m races and he looked like he would relish more ground. So he stepped out at Hastings second up where he drew wide and began on terms but they kicked up on the inner so snagged back but got too far back. Up front they ran 7 lengths slower than the R72 race to the 600m mark, so it favoured on-pace runners and the first three in running ran 1-2-3 with him charging home for fourth in 36.94 and 11.95 for his last 200m, which in the context of other races showed he is going to win races. the overall race time was faster than the R65 race as well. So he just needs a race where there is going to be good tempo and he strikes that here as the map above shows. The field is smaller and he has drawn better. If he begins like he did here last start, he should land about 7th ot 8th in running and if the pattern is like last years, he should be able to get out in time to wind up and get over these. The only negative is the 1400m. If it were 1600m, then I’d have 3/5 confidence and rate him lower, but he may just be looking for 1600m now. But the good tempo and with the rail likely to be off, he could still do it. RP $3.40, $3.30 after opening at $2.90. So he may just drift to a better price so suggest waiting closer to race time before backing him, plus you can see how the track is playing too.

Race 9

Confidence:2/5

3.Big Ben 1st $4.50 is ready to win but he just raced too keenly for my liking last start, even though he fought well for second. maps to get a good run.

Race 10

The speed map shows Super Hoof, Beau Geste and Cabochon likely to look to lead or be on the pace, with Ruffy Rahtwo getting a good run just in behind. An even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 3/5 and a Quality bet.

2.Ruffy Rahtwo 2nd rates clearly on top here in the Formpro Ratings ( FR ) . With two FRs of 105.9 (6th in an Open handicap ) and 103 ( third 0.7l to Te Toro Pearl and Cossack Warrior- two good horses in a 3yo race, and he has shown he can rate 99 which he will need to do to win this. Last start second up he was caught 4th 3 wide in the open on a decent tempo and should have tired but kept finding. The rail was a definite advantage that day as well. So third up and peaking with one of our favourite riders up, Lisa Allpress, he should get every chance to get a winning run just behind the favourite Super Hoof, and get his chance to wear him down. He rates 5 lengths clear of these after weight adjustments. RP $2.40, $4.50 FF Value Staking Plan units say 3.8 units at $4.50 FF

Dangers:

3.Super Hoof won well two back after getting his own way in front and won in a good speed rating. But then he stepped to 2100m at Te Rapa, didn’t get the lead and was gone 700m out. He drops back to 1650m here and may get taken on by Cabochon and Beau Geste, and i’m picking Lisa will be looking to pounce on him and the others early in the straight to make it a real test of fitness and will to win.