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Saturday preview below

Update: We got 10% of the Pick 6 which turned out to be a Pick 5 and got back $1,060, so some funds for next week. Apologies, I won’t be able to update the two races in Australia but the money has been good for them both so should be on the ball. Sylvia’s Mother won really well and Notation, who was just beaten, was a victim of a rider who fell asleep.

Update: 9 Aratoka is going to be near the inside which is certainly no disadvantage and her coat looks terrific. Should be back inner but can work closer along the inner across the top and can get over them. Gone well out. It may well go to 5 legs now if some double figure winners get up and we are on them!

Update: No camera required for that win!

Here is the full bet. I have anchored Helena Baby and Aratoka as they both will race on the inside which is the place to be. Bet is $384 for 10%

R1    11

R2    1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

R3     9

R4      1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13

R5      1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 16, 17

R6      1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

For the Pick 6 syndicate I’m 50/50 on whether it will go to a 10% ticket or less, so I have spent $384 of our $2,000 on a 10% ticket. We have Helena Baby as an anchor in the first race with the inside being the place to be. I’ll post the full bet after the race.

Update: 3.Sir Elton looks relaxed and ready. Should be too fast in front and too good. 2nd- I wasn’t expecting that!

Update: Divine Duke is ready to go and the money has come for him. 4th in a  well described slogfest! Back for Sir Elton at 2.43

Update: No further bets. Next update before Divine Duke’s race.

Update: Saturday 7.55 a.m.

Good morning,

If you are in the Pick 6 syndicate, watch out for an update on that by 3 p.m. I won’t decide what I will do with our $2,000 until I can see how the tracks are playing etc. An update will be posted on any other bets by noon. There are five Quality bets detailed below which all look well placed to win.

Enjoy the ride.

Neil

Bet of the day Flemington Race 7 1.Sylvia’s Mother $2.50 FF (Value staking plan units 4.7 units ) Quality bet updated 2 minutes before the race

Value bet of the day New Plymouth Race 7 9.Aratoka $6 FF (Value staking plan units 3.4 units ) Quality bet updated 2 minutes before the race

Speed map Special Sydney Race 3 3.Sir Elton $1.75 FF (Value staking plan units 3.8 units ) Quality bet updated 2 minutes before the race

Sneaky of the Day Te Rapa Race 7 7.Belle Tem $5.50 FF

The Money Shot’s best sports bet is Richmond in the AFL at 3 p.m. this afternoon -25.5 $1.85

Other Quality bets:

Sydney race 7 5.Notation $3.00 FF (Value staking plan units 2.7 units ) Quality bet updated 2 minutes before the race

New Plymouth Race 1 4.Divine Duke $8 FF  (Value staking plan units 2 units ) Quality bet updated 2 minutes before the race

Heads Up can be heard here with a preview of the Opunake Cup, the Money Shot’s opinion on how the track will play, and he is going for 4 in a row with his sports selection ( AFL Richmond -25.5 $1.85 Saturday 2 p.m. ) Plus your chance to win a $20 multi

Update 1.30 p.m. Friday Next update by 8 p.m. tonight

Apologies, no Friday multi makers.

There are five Quality bets found so far all detailed below. All will be updated about 2 minutes before the race.

If you are in the Pick 6 syndicate, where we have $2,000 in the kitty, I won’t decide if I will take one until seeing how the tracks are playing. With Helena Baby looking to lead on the rail, he will need the inside to be playing in his favour. If it isn’t, then it certainly looks an open race.

The Quality bets so far are:

New Plymouth Race 1 4.Divine Duke $8 FF  (Value staking plan units 2 units )

New Plymouth Race 7 9.Aratoka $6 FF (Value staking plan units 3.4 units )

Sydney Race 3 3.Sir Elton $1.75 FF (Value staking plan units 3.8 units )

Sydney race 7 5.Notation $3.00 FF (Value staking plan units 2.7 units )

Flemington Race 7 1.Sylvia’s Mother $2.50 FF (Value staking plan units 4.7 units )

 

 

Sydney

Race 3

Confidence: 4/5

3.Sir Elton has won his last three races in terrific fashion. The times and sectionals back them up ans he is going to win more races. So in a race where he maps to lead and dictate, he is going to be very hard to beat, as he will kick on these once over that rise, he should have too much of a break on them to be run down. RP $1.40, $1.75FF

Sydney

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

5.Notation has been impressive in all ofer last three wins and her best was last start when she just drew out for an easy win. She maps to lead or get a soft sit 2nd outer, and from there, on a winning weight, looks too good gain for these. RP $2.20, $3 Ff in from $3.70 FF.

Flemington

Race 7

Confidence: 4/5

1.Sylvia’s Mother in Sydney looked to have the makings of a Group 1 mare with the way she was able to accelerate off good tempos and with a very good action. Plus the sectionals and times backed that up. She ran on well fresh up when expected to win. She didn’t look ready to my eye that day. She has since trialed where she was allowed to drift back to last from the outside draw, come wide on the turn, and showed that wonderful action again to get up. Hawkes has brought her to Melbourne where I’m sure she will a few races, especially in mares only races next season. They’ve found the right race for her to win and she gets 2kgs off, and drawn out wide down the chute, which will allow her to just tuck in behind midfield behind what should be a decent tempo, then she can use her superior sprint to to just come with a well timed burst. RP $1.60, $2.50 FF

New Plymouth

This meeting last year resulted in a strong inside bias, which favoured leaders and trailers, especially the last four races. But it is likely to be a tougher track. Last year they were running 1.30 for 1400m. So with races 3 and 4 being over that distance, we will get a better gauge of how heavy it is and where any bias could be.

The same pattern with the rail coming back 8 metres should suit on pace runners.

The Money Shot will be walking the track for us on Friday.

He reports, ” The inside few metres is better than about 8m out and I see know reason why they should want to get out wider, so it could favour on pace runners, and it is very loose. ”

 

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

4.Divine Duke  ran a very good third at Tauranga off the pace fresh up when running his last 600m faster than any of the Open mares later in the day over less ground. Granted, the track was a bit slower then but it does show that he is right on track to run a big one second up again, especially after he has had a hurdles trial since then, which really turned around his form last season. Last campaign he bolted in second up at Tauranga over ground when his sectionals showed it was an outstanding win. Then he just careered away for an very easy win at Te Rapa. After that he won again and ran well in his last two starts but probably had the edge off him then. So 1800m suits now where he can settle off what looks to be an even tempo, and Craig Grylls can bide his time knowing that he has a horse who can run home a very strong last 600m on a heavy track. The small field helps as well and he gets in on a nice weight. RP $4, $8 FF after opening at $10.

Dangers:

6.Obsessive  won very well last start. This is harder but is a progressive horse.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

7.Beached as Bro has run two strong seconds in good form races and has won here leading all the way. Up in class but in the right race to lead all the way. RP $3.40, $3.40 FF

Dangers:

4.Charlie Horse  should trail and the form he is now, looks the testing material.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

9.Beckidboo is a nice mare and with 3kgs off, looks well placed to win again. RP $3.20

Dangers:

10.Heliberry  won easily despite running out last start. better suited left handed.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

7.Akera last start really put in some telling strides over the last 100 metres to almost win over 1200m. So the 1400m suits ideally third up. RP $3.00

Dangers:

4.Red Forrest  is in great form and is nicely placed here to be a realistic chance.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.London Express rates on top here after weight adjustments. 1400m looks like it suits now as well. RP $3.50

Dangers:

6.Liquid Inspiration won very well last start and is a real danger to the favourite.

Race 6

The speed map shows Helena Baby can lead on the rail with New York Minute 2nd outer and maybe Comeback caught 3 wide unless he is used up to get 2nd outer. an even tempo likely suiting all runners but an on pace bias near the rail is likely.

Confidence:2/5 and don’t back her until you see how the track is playing.

11.Helena Baby  just keeps winning and winning well from on the pace. His last was probably the best when he was a sitting duck when 2nd outer and had to get wider for better ground, but he just has a really good kick and maintains that stride rate through the line. The negative is he is starting in Open company for the first time and has picked a tough one to do it in. The light weight ( 53kgs) and the good draw should ensure he gets the lead and if the bias is still with him, that can easily counteract that negative. Plus he has been up for six starts and you just don’t know when they have had enough, especially on a very heavy track. RP $2.70, $2.30 Ff

Dangers:

3.New York Minute  won this last year leading on a biased track. Much better run second up and third up, is peaking at the right time.

8.Te Toro Pearl ran a solid 4th last start at Tauranga. Should get a good run near the pace and be in it.

9.Red Sienna  won very well at Otaki last start. maps to get back so if they go too hard up front, and the track uis allowing them to get home in the centre or wider, she could do it.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

9.Aratoka two starts back bolted in here and her race time was  quicker than the R65 race and her closing 600m and 200m told us she was the best horse in any race that day. Plus her action is ideal for a very heavy track. Then last start she raced at Waverley and the track was too good for her being a slow one. But she did run home strongly for 4th out wide when the bias was towards the inside and on pace. So back here over a suitable 1800m, on a very similar very heavy surface, where she should be able to settle around midfield, we know she has done the sectionals here and can win again at very good value. Rates two lengths clear after weight adjustments. RP $3.50, $6 FF.

Dangers:

1.Come Sei  had to be good to win here on debut. Up in class and distance but gets 3kgs off.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

1.Beau Jeu will relish a slog in the bog and is right at his peak now with J Parkes up. RP $5.00

Dangers:

7.Alvin’s Dream  won well last start and gets 3kgs off. Wide draw may be an asset or a liability.

10.Foiling  gets 3kgs off and is ready to win.

11.Hard To Be Humble  is capable of upsetting with the 3kgs off.

Te Rapa

There is just no value in the jumps races here, so pass on those.

And in races 4, 5 and 6 there is just no value in the 130% market, so just go and mow the lawns when they are on. There may be some value in the head to heads on those races but I doubt it.

Race 5

The speed map shows Admiral and He’s Cavalier sharing an even tempo suiting all runners in the small field.

4.Andoyas  gets his chance to turn the tables on Sultan Of Swing here. Last time they met, Sultan Of Swing got to the better part of the track while Andoyas was forced to nake his run in the slower part of the track, but got to within half a length of him. This time he meets him 2.5kgs better off in the weights which is more than enough to make up for that half length. The negative is he has drawn the rail and Sultan Of Swing drawn to be on his outer, so it will be interesting  to see the battle of the apprentices to get to the best part of the track out wider. RP $2.60, $2.70 FF

Dangers:

1.Sultan Of Swing won well here last start and gets in on the same weight and if he can hold Andoyas up again, he may get a winning break on him, but he does tend to knock off once in front, so timing his run on Andoyas is going to critical.

6.Hay Tiger  ran home hard last start at Hastings and although up in class, is peaking now.

3.Admiral, if not taken on by He’s Cavalier, will prove harder to run down.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

7.Belle Tem  ran home strongly last start for 4th in a race that favoured on pace runners in a good form race and was a game second in a strong form race before that as well. Gets in with a winning weight where there looks to be a decent tempo and she should be able to get out wider, where the better going is likely to be. RP $4.00, $5.50 Ff

Dangers:

9.Nuttee strong second here last start and gets 3kgs off this time.

2.Crystallize  rates well with 4kgs off and the early money says he is ready.

5.Don’t Doubt Me  almost won last start and very fit now.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

13.Scaglioni actually rates on top here after weight adjustments based on his close 4th in the R82 race two starts back. He has run two races either side of that as well and gets 4kgs off. he is well over the odds. RP $7, $21 FF

Dangers:

8.Trueman  is a nice horse who didn’t like the sticky track at Tauranga. Can bounce back.

5.Polly Grey  won too well here last start to leave out- up in weights though.

4.Wooden Edge won very here last start and gets 4kgs off.

Race 9

Confidence:1/5

2.Verry Flash game second last start and more ground suits now and has 3kgs off. RP $3.40

Dangers:

7.The Heiress  has been racing well in harder fields. gets 2kgs off and drawn well.

5.Suliman good chance after a nice 6th in a harder field last start.

9.Sweat Treat  won well here last start and goes well here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!