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Saturday 27 July preview below

Update: 13.Southern Lad should get his chance and be charging in time to get up. 4th after getting an interrupted passage

Update: Cradle Mountain – the inside is playing ok. He looks ready according to the birdcage commentator. He has drifted in price but it is a big field with no standout, so that can be expected. Led and was eased down just after turning in so something wasn’t right with him. Back for Southern Lad where the track is playing fairly.

Update: Missed the first leg so hoping it goes to 5 legs. Missed with four legs.  $84 to spend on the dog Pick 6 tomorrow

 

R1   7, 8
R2    1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
R3     2, 4, 5
R4     2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13
R5     2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10
R6      1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11

Update 2.38 p.m.

We have spent $2592 on a 10% ticket and have 7.Flaunting and 8.London Bound only in the first leg. I’ll post the full bet soon after the first leg is run. The balance of $84, if we have no return will be spent on the $20k terminating Pick 6 at the dogs tomorrow.

Update: 11.58- next update before the Pick 6 first leg is run

Rob S won the Heads Up Multi and has $20 on Crocodile Mountain $6.50 and Southern Lad $3 to return $390.

No further bets

Good morning,

We have $2676 from the Pick 6 Syndicate which I will spend on today’s last Terminating Pick 6 and post the bet by 2.45 so I can see what the tracks are doing.

I’ll also post an update with any other bets by noon.

Bet of the day Eagle Farm Race 8 13.Southern Lad $3.90 FF Updated 6.10 p.m.

Value bet of the Day Rosehill Race 7 9.Cradle Mountain $6 FF Updated 5.18 p.m.

Speed map Special  Rotorua race 3 1.Bobby Dazzler $3 Ff

Sneaky of the Day Rotorua race 4 9.Quizzy Lizzy $5 FF

Heads Up can be heard here where we preview the Taumaranui Cup plus you can win a $20 multi.

With heavy tracks at Rotorua and Otaki, I’ve stayed clear and found two well placed runners in Australia detailed below and both are Quality bets. The only Friday Multi maker is at the Whanganui dogs, Race 5 6.Sir Duggie at $1.75 FF. Won well. He maps to lead and he has pinging fast at his last two starts. From there his opening sectionals and recent times, say he should win.

The Money Shot’s best sports bet, and he is going for seven in a row, is South Africa +11.5 points against the All Blacks on Saturday night at $1.90. Yes and that is seven in a row – can he nail ten in a row!

Sydney

Rosehill

Race 7 5.20 p.m. NZ time

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet updated 2 minutes before the race

9.Cradle Mountain  has had three runs back now on wet tracks. Last campaign, he showed he could run top class times on better surfaces. His last run over 1400m on a heavy track, was very good as he led, wasn’t given much peace, and was only run down in the last 50m finishing 4th 0.8L  behind race rival  Eckstein. The rider said he just got tired late in the ground. With all three runs back from a spell, wet tracks have just not allowed him to use his speed, kick and strength to best effect. He steps to 1500m for the first time, but strikes the right race on a decent surface. Drawn wide which suits as he takes a couple of strides to get going but none of these will match him over the first 200 metres and he should lead and I doubt if Stampede has enough speed to hold him out 2nd outer, and he should get to the rail, where he is best suited. With him peaking fourth up now and being on a winning weight of 54kgs, where the better surface won’t suit many of these coming off wet tracks, he is going to be very hard to run down. RP $3, $6 FF

Eagle Farm

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet bet updated 2 minutes before the race

13.Southern Lad  two starts back was ridden closer to the pace and that allowed him to drive home very hard to win well in a good speed rating on a 1.11.3 track for the 1200m. Then last start, he just got too far back and they didn’t go hard enough for him. He still ran home strongly after getting an interrupted passage though for sixth running some good closing sectionals. He drops back into this and Ryan Maloney knows him well, so i’m sure he will use that gate to make sure he settles about midfield. With plenty of early speed from all over the field, he will relax well and he looks ideally placed on this big track to pick the gaps and be too strong for these over the last 100 metres as he loves a good chase down. The Good track is ideal for him with his action. RP $2.60, $3.90 FF

Rotorua

A tough day here with the very heavy track. They usually work out wider as the day goes on so watch the pattern emerge.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

1.Bobby Dazzler  won in a determined fashion last week and should get an uncontested lead with Viola Vega start in race 4 according to the trainer. Tough and Stephen Marsh would not back him if he was not 100%. RP $2.50, $3 less about a 7% deduction when Viola Vega comes out.

Danger:

5.Loubiton has looked good winning both her last two races. May not have the speed to catch Booby in a sprint home though.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

9.Quizzy Lizzy  really knuckled down and won her debut well, just like her trial runs. Gets 2kgs off and she has an ideal action for a heavy track so can go back to back. RP $4.00, $5.00

Dangers:

9.Viola Vega has run two very good races. The query is the heavy going though.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

1.Irish Flame  has been freshened up and goes well fresh. Gets 3kgs off. RP $7, $10FF

Dangers:

2.Spotlight Dream  has very good overseas form and won his trial very well. Heavy 11 is a query with his action though.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

9.Rippin  ran a strong second last start and is very fit now, which could make all the difference. RP $5, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

8.Cherry Lane  is also very fit and nicely weighted to be right in this.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5

8.Trisha Lea  showed that determination to win last start and ran a close second in this last year. Wide draw may help by this time of day too. RP $5,

Dangers:

10.Obsessive won very well last Saturday in an easier field. But Lisa Allpress sauid after getting off him that he relaxed so well and handled the ground even better, that he has to be the one to beat even though up in class.

7.Verry Flash  was a bit unlucky last week after getting shuffled back at a vital time and ran home strongly for third. Relishes heavy ground and has won on a slow track here.

12.The Kipling Girl  ran a game second at Tauranga and ran on well last start. Can upset.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

2.Pursued  strong second last start in a harder field. Gets 4kgs and rates well on a heavy track. RP $3.20, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

7.Call Me Jack can handle a bog and is very fit.

9.Keepella Heights  won easily last start beating Zabdi ( 4th) who won well next up.

6.Twin Spinner led all the way to win well last start. If inside is ok, can do it again.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

5.Yamuna  ran a strong second last start at Tauranga and has been given time to get over that. Good strong horse and drawn out which should be an advantage by this time of day. RP $3.40, $4 FF

Dangers:

4.Frozen  beat a weaker field last start and if the inside is off, could be in trouble. Good filly though and should be right at her peak.

3.Ottavio  runs his best races here and gets 4kgs off which means he is carrying the lightest weight he has for a long time, so he will notice it.

Otaki

The rail is back to true from 8m here last month, where from race 4 on they swung wide to win. So a fresh strip of 8m of ground will help initially, so watch for any patter, especially if thinking about punting London Bound in the Ford Ryder Stakes, as she has drawn the rail.

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

2.Young Squire  looked to have the ability to win at least a maiden when charging home here on debut for third. No good second up. Action says he may handle it despite being by Alamosa. Likely to get back but the small field will help. RP $4, $6 FF

Dangers:

1.Fast Mover  good second last start and fitter, but $1.90 is too short.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.Art Deco  game second in a harder field last start. Freshened up and gets 3kgs off. RP $3, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

7.Deerfield  is the obvious danger.

 

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

7.Sea Star won very well at Whanganui and covered plenty of ground at Awapuni. Better suited to this small field and down in weight with Lisa Allpress up. RP $5, $8.50

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

5.Cape Du Jeu two good races in harder fields. This is easier. RP $4.00

Dangers:

3.Qian Gua should be the next best. Always gives his best.

9.So It Was  will relish the heavy track and is nicely weighted.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

7.Flaunting  she handled the very heavy ground at Whanganui to win very well beating Sai Fah and Jager Bombed. Ran on well at Te Rapa on a better track and drawn out here which could be a plus by this time of day. Side Winkers go on. RP $3.60, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

6.Vibrato  can go close as he won very well last start on a heavy track.

8.London Bound  she was an impressive winner on debut on a 1.12.5 for 1200m track and this is going to be a 1.16 or worse track. Her action says she may struggle with that heavy sticky going and she was last away at Te Rapa so is no value at $2.10 FF

1.Sai Fah won well last start but a bog is a query.

Race 6

Confidence: it depends on how the track is playing. If the inside is ok, Skarloey is the one to beat.

2.Skarloey has won his last two impressively. He handled the heavy track well at Whanganui and this isn’t any stronger. If the inside isn’t badly off, he should be the one to beat. RP $3, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

4.Booty Lara  beat a couple of nice horses last start. gets 4kgs off.

5.Technician  ran a very good third at Trentham and is nicely weighted.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

3.Kirkland needed his first two runs. Gets 4kgs off at the right time. RP $4, $4.40 F

Dangers:

2.Welcome Back good 3rd to Charlie Horse last start travelling wide all the way when the inside was the place to be. Lisa Allpress rides.

4.Roschana good win fresh and ok second up. Ready again.

5.Prince Turbo  good 4th last start and very fit.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!