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Wednesday preview below

Taupo

Good morning,

The track is currently a Slow 7 and with 6mm of rain forecast this morning and clearing this afternoon, it is likely to favour on pace runners early on then winners are likely to come from off the pace later in the day. And remember there are two open trials before the first race, so we may get a lead from those two heats. It just makes it a tricky track to punt with any great confidence. The best way to make money out of it will be reviewing it after, as there are many horses that will go on to good form.

Bet of the Day Race 5 8.Burgundy Belle $2.90 FF

Value bet of the day Race 3 14.Gumpert $5.50 FF

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

11.Ruby Negroni 1st $3.20  ran a good fifth is the stronger Ryder Stakes and has a fitness edge over many here. Drawn to get an ideal run near the pace. RP $3.50, $3.60 FF

Dangers:

6.Luminous  has rated strongly in better fields. Drawn out and likely to get back, which may not suit.

16.O’Pristine  nice horse and drawn to get a good run.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

6.Shezathinka  rated an FR 104 in the Lowland Stakes beating many race winners. Has trialed like she can win fresh up. RP $3, $2.70 Ff

8.Don’t Lie To Me drawn to get an ideal run and looks the main danger.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

14.Gumpert won easily last start and in better time than the R65 race. Has the early pace to get into a good spot handy and be a nice ew chance. RP $5.00, $5.50 in from $7.50 FF

Danger:

7.Quizzy Lizzy won strongly on debut and got too far back second up but powered home late for third. She handles a wet track very well and has race fitness edge over many. Negative is the wide draw but if they are getting off the rail to win, it will make it easier. 

3.You’re Welcome was ok in his trial but $4 is too short in this field.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

13.Good Luck Charm 1st $3.10 led all the way in his trial and has a nice action for a wet track. RP $5

Dangers:

3.Snakeye  is ready to win on debut but drawn wide, which may be a plus.

Race 5

confidence 2/5

8. Burgundy Belle is a good mare who looks to have strengthened up since her last campaign based on her very nice trial at Te Rapa. Drawn the inside which may be a negative but Opie will be doing his best to get her out if it is. RP $3.00, $2.90 in from $3.90

Dangers:

6.Ottavio gets 4kgs off and if leaders are winning, could do it.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

9.Minnalines looked good last campaign running 2nd to a nice horse. Very impressive recent trial winner and the 1100m is ideal. Only negative is if she leads and the rail is off. RP $2.50

Dangers:

6.Osaka looks a nice looking galloper that should handle a wet track. Won his first trial well is ready to win on debut.

10. Rhapsody In Blue strong second on debut and trailed well since.

Race 7

An interesting race to watch with many who will go on to good form.

7.Shoshone  won very well on debut on a heavy track. Drawn out which could be a bonus by this time of day. She relaxes well so with a strong tempo here, she is likely to snag and come at them late. RP $45, $6 FF

Dangers:

3.Trifolium  is a good horse drawn wide, which could be a plus.

4.Kali also drawn out and has talent.

1.Appelant  nice horse who should handle it but drawn the inside which could be a no go zone by this time of day.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

One of these four should take this out 1-5-6-10

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!