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Saturday, 24 August preview below

Update: 8 a.m.

Good morning,

Just two Quality bets today and both are in Australia. Deprive may drift from his current $3.30 so it may pay to wait till closer to start time before backing him.

Last week’s quality bet, Twin Spinner, strikes the right race to bounce back where he can lead all the way or get a soft sit on it, with little pressure likely up front.

No update today.

Bet of the day The Valley Race 1 1. Shot Of Irish $3.50 ( Quality bet )

Value bet of the day Taranaki Race 6 1.Scaglioni $6 FF

Speed Map Special Taranaki Race 7 4.Tellyawhat $2.90 Ff

Sneaky of the day Ellerslie Race 3 6.Twin Spinner $7 FF

Second Quality bet Randwick race 6 7.Deprive $3.30 FF

The GOAT has Van Gerwin to win the Masters darts and Richmond Tigers -14.5 in the AFL

Othe

The early preview of Saturday is below. Next update  by 8 a.m. Saturday.

Two Quality bets so far below

Heads Up can be heard here and Tommy has won this week’s $20 multi bet which will be placed tomorrow. We preview the big race at Ellerslie and much more. Update: Tommy’s $20 multi is Deprive $3.30  into Shot Of irish $3.50 to return $231

The GOAT’s best sports bets are van Gerwin to win the NZ darts Masters at $2.50  and the Richmond Tigers -14.5 in the AFL

Royal Randwick

Race 6

Confidence: 4/5 1st $3.30

7.Deprive has been a very good horse to us and I see no reason to jump ship now. He put in an outstanding effort to win here fresh up in may coming from last over 1100m to win in 1.02.3 running closing sectionals Group 1 horses can run. His recent trial where he sat third and wasn’t touched, shows he is ready to win again fresh up. Drawn 1 and with a good tempo very likely, that will allow him to settle 3 or 4 back on the fence, as he jumped very well in that trial, and on this track, should be able to find the gaps in time to unleash his powerful finish especially with a nice weight advantage over his main rivals. RP $1.80, $3.00 FF Value Staking Plan bet is 3/1.8= 1.7 x 3 = 5.1 units)

The Valley 

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5 2nd 

1.Shot Of Irish two starts back over 1400m drew out for an easy win at Sandown. Then last start he drew well, began best, eased three back inner, with two good horses leading and trailing, and he ran on the best of anything for third in the best closing sectionals of the race. In context with better class races, his sectionals showed he can win more races. So he drops in class here and gets to 1600m for the first time which looks ideal for him as he is rock hard fit. He has the early pace to slide forward and with not many on pace runners or an obvious leader, he should be able to slot into the first four in running without doing any significant work, and from there, with his strength and obvious desire to win, he is going to be hard to keep out against these on this track. RP $2.40, $3.80 FF ( value Staking Plan bet is 3.8/ 2.4 = 1.6 x 2 = 3.2 units )

Taranaki

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

5.Hard To be Humble bolted in here last start and gets 3kgs off again. Looks a good eachway chance now that he has struck form. RP $4, $5.50

Dangers:

1.Richard Of Yorke gets 3kgs off but hasn’t raced a for a while so may be vulnerable late.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

5.Magdala  bolted in here in better time than Helena baby won the Open handicap. Ran on well from the back at Te Rapa last start and 1800m will suit. RP $3.40

Dangers:

1.Maestro Blu  won easily last start and gets 4kgs off. This is harder though.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

7.Chosen Peak  is racing in solid form and is rock hard fit. RP$5

Dangers:

8.Our Chloe looks the main danger.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

6.Miss Lizzie should get a softish lead again and with the light weight, could do it again. RP $4

Dangers:

1.Art Deco has that will to win and goes well here on heavy tracks.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

1.Ruffy Rahtwo with the 4kgs gets his chance and should get the right run. RP $5, $4.80

Dangers:

5.Beckidboo gets 3kgs off and that makes her the clear main danger.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

1.Scaglioni won well last start after settling better which allowed him to produce his powerful final finish  and gets in on a winning weight again. Handles heavy ground well. RP $5

Dangers:

2.Viktor Vegas won very well fresh up and ran on strongly second up. Looks ready third up.

9.High Quality  is back in distance but  it will be a very hard slog and will be suited by Chris Johnson.

3.Irish Flame  won third up last campaign and won at this meeting last year – will have been aimed at this race.

 

 Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

4.Tellyawhat won like a good horse last start and even though he is up in class, he gets 3kgs off. Ran 2nd to Santa Monica  here and 1400m suits. RP $3.40, $4 FF

With Showmeware out now he does look too good for these.

Race 8

Confidence:2/5

7.Ayappan has looked good in both of his starts when finding the line hard late over 1200m. Third up here, he strikes the right distance of 1400m third up now and even though this is a stronger field, he looks to have the ability to win at least a couple of races. RP $6, $11

Dangers:

8.Shelly’s Lass won very well last start and a wider draw may help.

1.Happy Star gets 2kgs off but is no value at $2.70.

Ellerslie

A very heavy track likely making it tough to punt with much confidence.

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

6.Justacanta  fought hard last start for second and is fitter now third up. RP $4

Dangers:

1.Back In A Flash with a freshen up can bounce back.

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5

8.Don’t Doubt Me is ready to win now and gets in on a light weight but up in class. Handles a bog well though. RP $4.50

Dangers:

4.Tipical did well after being hampered midrace to run second.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

6.Twin Spinner  put in two very good runs before running a battling fifth last week after working on a decent tempo that suited off pace runners. He strikes an easier field and maps to get a softer time in front or just behind it. From there, he handles heavy ground well, and can bounce back here. RP $5, $7 FF

Dangers:

3.Hurry Cane  keeps finding one better but should be in it.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

6.Mandalay  closed off strongly for second last week and Aaron Kuru knows him better. Jumps well. RP $4

Dangers:

1.Willare  looks the obvious danger and jumps well also.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

4.Bee Tee Junior has the class on the flat to beat these easily and he can hurdle ok. The very heavy track will be against though. RP $4

Dangers:

1.Magic Cannon  fought hard last start for third and is very fit and hurdled well.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

6.King Oberon  ran a very good race last start after a 42 day break. The 3350m will suit and he hurdles well. RP $4

Dangers:

9.Abacus bolted in last start and Emily Farr knows him well.

2.No Tip ran on strongly last start on the flat and has won his last two hurdles races.

1.Laekeeper  is a good hurdler and was going well last start before the rider parted company.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

2.Max was a dominant winner here in June over 4100m for the McGregor Grant and has been going ok over hurdles. Back here over steeples he is definitely the one to beat with top rider Isaac Lupton up. RP $4

Dangers:

8.Raisafuasho  has won both of his last two steeples well and looks the main danger.

5.Perry Mason ran a strong second to Max here in June and Aaron Kuru knows him very well.

10.Lacustre  ran third to Max last start and is a good place chance.

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!