Saturday 31 August preview below

Update: 4.17

Endless Drama looks very fit and in a race that will be run at a solid tempo, that race fitness can make all the difference. Good bet.

Update: No further bets

The heads Up Multi winner, David L, has a $20 multi on Aero du Paris $3.40 into Endless Drama at $2.80 to return $190

Update 7.59 a.m.

Good morning,

The Hastings track has come back to a Dead 4 and with a fine day forecast, we are in for some great racing there.

Just the one Quality bet today, Endless Drama, but there may be more in the update by noon.

Bet of the day Hastings Race 9 1.Endless Drama $2.80 FF No chance after being caught 3 wide in the open on a fast pace

Value bet of the Day Hastings Race 6 1.Aero de Paris $3.40 FF 4th after getting his chance

Speed Map Special Hastings Race 2 4 Kali $2.40 FF 1st $2.20

Sneaky of the Day Hastings Race 7 8.Battle Time $14 Ff 3rd $3.00

The GOAT’s best sports bet is Hawke’s Bay in the rugby at 5 p.m. today -7.5 at $1.87 yes won by 15

Heads Up can be heard here with a preview of the Tarzino and the GOAT’s best sports bet of the weekend, plus your chance to win a $20 multi bet.

Update:

Multi maker:

Addington harness 

Race 7 8.21 p.m. 1.Classie Brigade 1st $2.80  is a very good horse who can run time and was just beaten by the very good U May Collect last time here. Has trialed really well since and from the inside, he usually begins cleanly from a stand, so can lead and I can’t see anything taking him on, so he can lead all the way here. $2.50 FF

Below there is one Quality bet so far for Saturday. I’ll post another update by 2 p.m. Friday.

Bivouac is not a Quality bet as the value is not great, but he can be used to multi into Endless Drama.

Rosehill

Race 5 

Confidence: 4/5

3.Bivouac could not have been more impressive fresh up when winning easily showing Group 1 type accelartion. His race time and sectionals, when compared to others on the day back that assessment up. A soft track won’t be a negative as he has won on soft and heavy tracks. Should get an ideal run and prove too good for these. RP $1.20, $1.45 FF

Hastings

Our Track Walker, Brendan, told us, ” The inside three metres is better than further out so should favour on pace runners at least initially anyway. The straight, outside the 7 metre mark, is noticeably rougher and slower than the new strip of ground.”

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Race 1

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

9.Leading Role  has two of the top three Formpro ratings ( FRs ) here on a Dead to Good track. Two good runs recently and with a good run, is a nice eachway chance in an open race. RP $7, $12 Ff

Dangers:

3.Beauty Star  will relish the middle distance now.

5.Itellyouonething third up rates well and gets 3kgs off.

6.So It Was  drops back in class and with the right run, can place.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

4.Kali was an impressive winner here over 1300m in a very good speed rating. She trialed recently and finished under double wraps and looked stronger as well. So from the good draw, she should get every chance and looks the one to beat. RP $2.50, $2.40 FF

Dangers:

6.On Show looked good winning on debut and drawn the inside. Ready to fire.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

10.Vigor Winner   is a good horse and gets in on a winning weight. With a good pace likely, he should get his chance to get out and drive at these late. RP $2.50, $2.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Livin On a Prayer  ran second to Te Akau Shark fresh up here last year. He will be ready to fire again fresh.

12.Vinnie’s Volley goes well fresh and if he gets a softish time in front, could prove hard to catch.

4.Cavallo Veloce should be in for his best season. Drawn well and is good eachway value.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

9.Lily d’or was very impressive winning on debut in the fastest of the four 1200m races here. She is very highly thought of and is a very nice galloper. Her early speed will help her get into a good position on the pace and be hard to beat from there. RP $2.80, $2.80 FF

Dangers:

15.Holymongolemperor  looked to have any amount of ability last campaign. Will be better over more ground, but if they go hard, which is possible, it would not surprise to see him blow these away.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.Equinox  is a good horse on a Dead or better track. He trialled up nicely and is ready to win fresh up. RP $3.50, $4

Dangers:

3.Catalyst  is a very good horse too. Won in a very good speed rating last start. Nice trial win and just needs a good run from the wide draw to test Equinox.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

1.Aero de Paris with a better ride would have bolted in last start. The rider elected to take the route following the runners that burnt early so was always going to have to switch ground at some stage. He did that but it was far too late and he ran a fast closing second. He’s the best horse in this race and should get a good run about 6th or 7th, but I just don’t have the confidence in the rider to give him the right run. RP $, $3.40 FF

Dangers:11.Spring Bouquet  was an unlucky 2^nd here last start. With a freshener from the good draw, she looks the main danger to Aero de Paris.

6.Danger Dee goes well here and on the fresh side, with  good run, can be in it.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

8.Battle Time  racing well and maps to get a good run leading or trailing a slowish tempo. He has won a Couplands Mile and with all favours here, with his race fitness edge, he could upset these. RP $8, $14 FF

Dangers:

11.Cutadeel  showed above average ability last campaign and looks to have come back bigger and stronger after his two good trial runs. Weighted to win. RP $3.50, $3.60 FF

7.Sentimental Miss  is an obvious improver after her good finish in the Foxbridge and gets in on   the right weight.

3.Sultan Of Swing drawn well and should get a good run.

Race 8

Confidence:

11.Mohaka  rated strongly against good horses last campaign. Nice finish for second fresh up and get in here nicely being fitter now. RP $4, $4.80 Ff

Dangers:

12.Yamuna  on a better surface can drive home strongly here.

6.Five Stars  won well last start and with a good run should be in this.

1.Whatsup  drawn to get a good run and be a chance from there.

Race 9

The speed map shows many runners to go forward early and look to lead or be close to it. So a better than even tempo is likely suiting off pace runners:

Confidence: 3/5 and he is a Quality bet.

1.Endless Drama was a decisive winner at Te Rapa at WFA. The improved track and the extra 200m will only help him. His win in the Easter in fast time was decisive as well. He placed third in a Stradbroke and none of these have rated that high. Drawn to settle midfield or behind it with a strong tempo likely, so he should get his chance to get out and I can’t see Melody Belle turning the tables on him from Te Rapa from that wide draw, even allowing for improvement, and Danzdanzdance should find the fitter and in-form Endless Drama too good, so he looks a strong chance to win. RP $2.00, $2.70 FF ( Value Staking Plan says 2.7/2= 1.35 x 3 = 4.1 units rounded )

Dangers:

12.Danzdanzdance is a  very good mare who will be suited by the good tempo. But likely to be better suited over more ground giving a race fitness edge to a very good horse.

11.Melody Belle won this race last year getting the perfect run. She has drawn wide here so will have to do more work and I just can’t see her improving enough to turn the tables on Endless Drama.

6.Comeback  ran a strong third to Endless Drama and should get the same good run.

Race 10

Confidence: 2/5

7.Burgundy Belle  is a good mare ready to win fresh up. Drawn to get a good run. RP $4, $4.80 Ff

Dangers:

8.Lincoln Falls  will have been set for this fresh up and just needs a good run.

10.Prince Hareem  will appreciate the better track conditions and the harder they go, the better his chances.

5.Langkawi  goes well here and is ready to fire fresh up.

Ruakaka

Tricky races here so tread carefully.

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

8.Amazing Az will certainly appreciate the extra distance and the light weight. RP $2.40, $2.00 FF

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5

7.I See Red won very well here last start after doing a lot of extra work. Up in class but gets 4kgs from a good draw.

4.Super Gee looks the main danger.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

4.Anneofpainsley  has looked above average in her two runs. The step to 1400m looks ideal now. RP $3.20, $3.70 FF

Dangers:

1.Magnify  looks the obvious danger.

Race 4

8.Annie’s Song was an impressive winner here on debut.Drawn to get a winning run again.

1.Exuberant looks the main danger- the money has come for it too.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

4.Vernanme is a nice looking horse who looked stronger and more relaxed in a recent trial. Can win fresh up. RP $3.60, $3.70 Ff

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

3.Avantage should be hard to beat here. Draw awkwardly and wouldn’t want to do too much early against these. RP $2.30, $1.90

Race 7

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

3.Brugel  with a freshener can get over these late with the allowance. RP $5, $10 FF

Dangers:

9.Meteoric Lass  is ready to fire fresh up.

Race 8

3.Splendido won well last start and gets 4kgs off so has to be a realistic chance.

4.Von Blanc  is a nice horse and drawn to get all favours.

1.Super Hoof  will try for an all the way win and left alone, could do it.