Wednesday preview below

Update: 7.03

Deep Euphoria has drifted in the market to almost ten dollars in some markets. She is still a good chance and is a solid eachway chance at almost double figures. 5th after getting her chance.  14.1 units outlaid for 18.7 units returned for a 4.6 unit profit. Would have been a big loss on a raffle of a Pukekohe track!

Update: 6.28

The leader won the last race here so the inside is ok. So Rox The Castle, if not taken on by Taksu, or if he does, Martin just takes a sit or eases out 2nd outer and with a moderate tempo likely, he is going to be hard to run down. Has drifted in the market as Jumbo has been talked up. 1st – too tough and too fit!

Good morning,

Four Quality bets today.

I’ve had some interesting emails over the last week or so about the lack of selections for heavy track meetings. Some are all for it, some want more selections. I’ve been navigating our way through the last few wet months with the Quality bets, which have made a good profit. They were well placed runners that had the credentials to say they could win at value prices. Nowhere else in New Zealand do you get that advice.

Anyone can pick a winner but to have any chance of making money off the punt, you have to punt with just a little bit of common sense. Firstly, you have to have rated price as how the hell do readers know what chance I give it? If I rate it a $2 chance, you know I give it a 50% chance of winning. So if we can get on at $2.50 or more, we are getting good value. But if it drops to $1.80 or less, forget it, as long term, you WILL lose on those kind of bets with no value. If I gave no Rated Price and it wins, then I say after the race, ‘ It was too short,’ I’d get rotten eggs thrown at me. Secondly,  with the confidence levels shown, readers get a good quick indication of my confidence. 3/5, 4/5 and 5/5 rated races are the ones to bet into seriously, as they are where you will make your money long term.

The Punters Graveyard is overflowing with punters who thought they could back the winner of nearly every race, backed poor value runners, chased their losses, then gone broke. Don’t guarantee your ticket to that place of death, it is dark, gloomy and a bit chilly in Winter. Get your punting organised which means bet within your limits, get a betting bank together, and back value runners.

Today we have a Heavy 10 track at Pukekohe Park with rain about. For me, I just won’t be having a serious bet there. It is likely to favour outside runners, but then again, who knows, as we don’t get a full penetrometer service across the track! You have to wait to see how the day develops.  I’ve selected one horse there with a confidence level of 2/5 with not a lot of value. But I’ve found four other runners at Wanganui and Sandown, that I have used times and sectionals, and replays to do the form on – much more enjoyable to analyse, and they are all nice value.

No update today except for the two Quality bets at Sandown 2 minutes before each race.

 

Wanganui Greyhounds

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet

1.Thrilling Roar looks well placed from the inside box to repeat his win from last week here in the same class and distance. His closing sectional two starts back at Auckland was the second fastest all day even faster than the C5 dogs. Then last start he ran the 4th = best closing sectional all day. He has a very powerful midrace sectional so from the inside, where the 2 dogs veers out early, he should be able to land handy then drive to the lead early in the back straight and with the fastest time here in the last 90 days, will be very hard to run down. RP $1.80, $2.70 FF ( 4.5 units at $2.70 FF )

Race 10

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet

2.Simply Smooth ran a very good second to Thrilling Roar here last start after leading then being headed by him, then coming back strongly for a close second in a good time and the fastest last sectional all day. Drawn to trail out 1.Bigtime Sandy who likes to run wide into the first bend. Simply Smooth likies the rail, so could easily be in front or close to it going into the back straight. She has the best time of these and looks well placed to repeat her debut win here ( From Oz) in a good time also. RP $1.80, $2.30 FF ( 3.8 units at $2.30 FF)

Sandown

Race 7 6.30 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet updated 2 minutes before the race.

1.Rox The Castle 1st $4 FF led all the way  led all the way at Flemington over 1400m after flying out of the gates and traveled “Sweetly” according to the rider. He bolted in in a nice speed rating. Then he did the same at The Valley over 1200m winning easily. Then last start over 1400m at Caulfield in a BM 84 he trailed the winner Age Of Chivalry and fought hard for second in a good speed rating. Age Of Chivalry won again on Saturday. He sweated up a bit that day too, so third up here looks well placed back in class with 2kgs off again. The rail is out 12m so it should still be ok for front runners. Taksu looks the only early challenger for the lead so he can lead or take a sit and with a moderate tempo likely, looks well placed to lead somewhere in the straight and he has that real will to win, so is going to be very hard to peg back. RP $2.20, $3.30 FF ( Value Staking Plan says 3 units at $3.30 Ff )

Danger:

12.Jumbo Osaki had his chance fresh up over 1200m for a battling third. Scratched from a wet track recently. 25 day break is a negative stepping to 1400m second up. Gets 4.5kgs off Rox The castle but he is race fit and peaking third up and is a real fighter.

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet updated 2 minutes before the race.

6.Deep Euphoria won very impressively here two starts back over 1000m in a good speed rating in 58.53. Then after a freshener, was held up when bolting here over 1000m and once out it was all over. She was in front about 100m past the post. Her action says a Good track is fine and with good speed up front very likely, she will settle back and look to pick the gaps and this big powerful mare from Rachel Frost’s stable will be very hard to keep out over the last 100 metres. RP $3.20, $4.50 ( Value Staking plan  2.8 units at $4.50 FF)

Pukekohe Park

With rain on the heavy 10 track and rail out 6 metres, you need to look for runners, late in the day, just like Te Aroha, that are drawn out and can get out wide where the better ground is likely to be.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

9.Quizzy Lizzy was a dominant winner here on debut in similar ground. Then second up put in a very strong finish from last to run third at Rotorua on a heavy track running the fastest last 600m of the race. Last start she did not fire after making abnormal breathing noises, so the tongue tie goes on. She maps to get back on the outer, and back on her favoured track, she can get to the outside and power over these. RP $3.00, $3.60 FF