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Saturday September 7 preview below

Update: 6.26 p.m. The track pattern is favouring on pace runners which could see more runners looking to go forward ensuring enough tempo for him to get over them. He’s got out to $5 in some markets which is great value. Looks relaxed and ready to win. I’m on at the better odds now. Good 2nd after the winner got his way up front.

Update: 5.08 p.m. The money has been strong for Nature Strip and the track is playing fairly. He is going to be very hard to beat. Missed after just not settling. Back for the Shark at 6.28 p.m.

Update: 11 a.m.

No further bets.

Pete J’s $20 multi is Cooga Doon $4 into Nature Strip $2.20 to return $176

Update 8 a.m. Saturday

The summary of the Quality bets since June is here.With a strike rate of 48% and Profit on Turnover of 55% I am very pleased with that over the hardest part of the year to make a dollar. We just have to keep it going now over the tricky Spring Carnivals!

With heavy tracks at all three NZ venues, there are no Quality bets there. I’ve spent most of my time going through the Sydney and The Valley form, and for various reasons, are not recommending backing some of our stable runners e.g.  Pandemic R1 at Randwick- harder field, up in distance, and weight, so no value at $2.70. Deprive, race 6 at The Valley, up in weight, likely to be midfield inner on the tighter track, and the chances are he will be flashing too late, so no value at $3.80 either.

Nature Strip is a world class sprinter and looked ready to explode in his trial after relaxing much better. If you took the multi makers with him yesterday, you will be cheering him on. And Te Akau Shark, will very likely drift in price, but I’m still confident he can blow them away unless there is a severe bias against him. I’ll report back 2 minutes before the race anyway.

Pete J won the $20 multi bet from Heads Up which I’ll post in the update by noon along with any other bets.

Bet of the Day Randwick race 6 3.Nature Strip $2.30 Ff Quality bet

Value bet of the day  Wanganui Race 8 5.Cooga Doon $4FF in from $5 FF  1st $3

Speed map special Ellerslie race 2 2.Speedy Meady $3.20 FF

Sneaky of the day Ellerslie Race 3 7.Flying Fantasia $12 and $2.50 FF Back eachway in the 6 horse field on FF odds as you get a third place dividend.

The other Quality bet is Randwick Race 8 2. Te Akau Shark $2.50FF and updated at 6.28 p.m. likely to drift in price.

The GOAT’s best sports bet is Waikato -0.5 $1.87  v North Harbour at 5.05 p.m. Saturday

Update: 6 p.m. Friday

Heads Up can be heard here where the GOAT and I preview the Great Northern Steeplechase and the Wanganui Guineas. Plus you can win a $20 multi bet.

Update 3 p.m. Friday.

Tough fields in New Zealand on heavy tracks so tread carefully. I’ve spent most of my time going through the Australian form but am only only confident about Nature Strip and Te Akau Shark, who will likely drift, if the bias favours inside on pace runners, as they will no doubt look to back locals to beat the Shark. It will take a bowling ball bias for them to hold out I feel though.

Early Quality bets for Saturday. Friday Multi makers to multi into Nature Strip here

 

Randwick Sydney

Race 6

Confidence: 4/5 Quality bet- updated 2 minutes before the race at 5.08 p.m.

3.Nature Strip is ready to explode! His trial was just what we needed to see where he settled nicely a few lengths behind Redzel and could have beaten him easily if James had tickled him with his little finger. He is ideally suited when he can get a trail and use his explosive acceleration to beat the rest. Drawn to get the trail behind Redzel and with Sunlight and Redzel going forward to keep him honest, the gaps will come in time for James to ask him to go and he should beat these. RP $1.70, $2.20 FF ( Value Staking plan says 3.9 units at $2.20 FF )

Race 8 6.30 p.m.

Confidence: 4/5 Quality bet – wait if you can as he is likely to drift. Updated 6.28 p.m.

2.Te Akau Shark looks well placed here to win on debut in Australia. I’ve been doing sectionals in New Zealand since 2003 and nothing has matched his sectionals, especially from the 400m to the 200m. He can sustain that powerful sprint right to the line as well. He put up a big run fresh up at Te Rapa running the best closing sectionals all day wide out in the worst going. So he just needs an even tempo here, which he should get, then James just has to get a nice track into it, which he specialises in, and with the front runners working up that rise, and him unleashing, we are in for a real treat of a finish, and I’m confident he is good enough to beat these. RP $1.90, $2.50 FF ( Value Staking plan says 2.5/1.9 = 1.3 x 3 = 3.9 units ) If you can, wait till closer to race time as he is very likely to drift, plus we can see how the track is playing as we.

Ellerslie

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

4.Bee Tee Junior  looked to be coming into it like a winner before losing the navigator here last start on debut over hurdles. Will be improved by that and should be the one to beat.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

2.Speedy Meedy  is a good horse in the wet and with 4kgs off will be hard to beat. Rp $4, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

3.Lily Thunder handles wet tracks very well.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

7.Flying Fantasia fresh up with a light weight can upset . Won really well here earlier on a similar surface. Placed 2nd fresh up over 1600m in May.RP $8, $12

Dangers:

6.Scaglioni did very well alongside Irish Flame last start. Meets him better off by 1 kg and can turn the tables this time.

1.Irish Flame  is still on the up and isn’t here for the good weather.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

1.Mont Ventoux  bolted in here last start and relishes this ground. RP $4, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

2.Bobby Dazzler  with a soft lead with 3kgs off, could prove hard to run down.

8.Codecracker with a soft sit on the pace likely, could be hard to peg back.

4.Rukuhia won the last two well. Up in class though here.

Race 5

1.Eion jumps well and from the right stable to see out a race over the hill.

Race 6

2.No Tip is very fit and hurdles very well. Looks the one to beat.

1.Laekeeper  looks the obvious danger

3.Alfie Dee  is very tough and can win it.

Race 7

Confidence: 7.Back In A Flash  is a very good horse who won very well last start. Fitness is a good edge to have. RP $3.00, $2.50 FF

Dangers:

5.Herengawe  looks the main danger after some very good runs.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

6.The Arabian Duke  made up plenty of ground from the top of the hill to the finishing post and was the strongest of anything on the line- just what you want to see going into this. Peaking for this nicely. RP $3.70, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

4.Crash Bandicoot is a good jumper and will relish this distance.

7.Lacustre  won well here last start but is too short up to this distance.

2.Max battled on well for 4th and with natural improvement, should be in it.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

1.Divine Duke  with 3kgs off against these should get his chance here. RP $5, %4.50 FF

Dangers:

6.Maestro Blu gets 4kgs off and is very fit as well.

9.Twin Spinner  was just beaten here last start- tough.

Race 10

Confidence: 2/5

1.Repo Sun  is ready to strike now and gets 4kgs off. RP $4, $3.90 FF

Dangers:

8.Heliberry gets 2kgs off and looks well placed.

 

Wanganui

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

1.Flaunting  has the best ratings of these on heavy tracks and won strongly here back in June on a similar surface. Drawn midfield and will get back and should be able to get out wider to beat these. RP $4

Dangers:

2.She’s a Lady is ready to go fresh up and ran a close second to Flaunting.

Race 6

2.Dr Watson  gets 4kgs off which makes him a realistic chance.

5.Charlie Horse  is in career best form but drawn the inside so no anchor.

4.Youwantmore will find this easier.

Race 7

8.Showmeware is a good horse and she will be coming hard late.

6.Grand Mayson  is a good horse who won well fresh up and gets in on a winning weight.

3.Miss Lizzie  gets in on a winning weight and will be hard to run down again.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

5.Cooga Doon  bolted in here last start on debut beating Bubble Gum who bolted in during the week. Drawn wide with Lisa Allpress up so should be in the right part of the track. RP $4, $4.60 FF

Dangers:

1.Sai Fah  has won his last two very well with the blinkers on but drawn near the inner which makes it hard to back him with confidence and the blinkers come off.

3.Caithness Kid  I liked the way she found the line to win at Matamata with a good wet track action. Wide draw helps.

4.Checkers  is a good horse and drawn out which will help. Won his trial well. Heavy track a query though.

Race 9

5.Kirkland  goes well here and with 3kgs off, can upset.

11.Penelope Cruise drawn wide which will be a plus and is a good mare.

5.Lord Valentine rates on top in the Formpro Ratings.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!