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Wednesday September 11 preview below

 

Good morning,

I’ve previewed all races here as it is my local meeting and I enjoy the racing there. No Quality bets so far, but there may be in the update at noon, with any head to heads or other bets.

At the last meeting here on a  similar bog surface, they got out to the centre and wider very early on and the same should apply here. I’ve looked at most horses actions , breeding and bog track form and feel there are few value bets there today. In fact of the six races, I’ve not selected a favourite on top. be good if the bookies had an option for the number of favourites to win/lose

Bet of the day Race 4 1.Burton $2.30 FF

Value bet of the day Race 6 4.Touch The Clouds $5 FF

Speed Map Special Race 3 6.Simona $9 FF

Sneaky of the day Race 2 4.Voltaires Secret $7.50 Ff

Tauranga

Speed map shows: ( Courtesy of Formpro Ratings

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5 where Unacceptable can win this by default as she has the best action and ratings on a very heavy track.

5.Unacceptable  has good credentials against handy maidens over more ground. Back to 1600m in a bit of a slog will suit as she has an ideal action for a deep track. Maps to get back but the biggest form factor today is the ability to handle a bog, so with only 6 others in front of her, she can work into it wider, where the best ground may be even early on, and looks the obvious one to start the day. RP $2.20, $2.50 FF

Dangers in order:

2.Captain Reg  ran a 20L 6th here on a  similar track in July. Last run was much better wide with cover and came widest on the turn and kept on well. Fitter and drawn well.

8.Glad All Over made up a bit of ground here on debut then battled on ok second up. Fitter now and could place.

1.Prestigious Lad struggled on the heavy 10 fresh up. Third was on a slow 9 track. At around $2.20 he is a false favourite

3.Blade Runner good third behind 4 win Obsessive at Matamata on a 1.39 for 1600m track. Did nothing fresh up at Wanganui. Action says a slow or better surface suits.

4.Fourchoux  hard to see troubling some of these on what he has done so far.

7.Habanero won a three horse trial under a ride beating race rival Fourchoux then did nothing on debut.

Race 2

Speed map shows:

Confidence 1/5 in a race where the $1.65 favourite, Fleurgundy, is no value.

4.Voltaires Secret looked good winning his last trial when settling back and getting out wide and handled the wet ground well to just win. Looks stronger after a short break as well. Looks the value in this. RP $4.50, $7.50 Ff

Dangers in order:

2.Razor last start fresh up drew 1 and wasn’t rushed early-settled 3 back inner and ran on well rail but winner and 3rd horse were too good. Drawn 1 again and should settle 3 back inner again and can place from there.

6.Warpath in his last trial wasn’t far behind race rival Voltaire’s Secret and 200m out he stumbled when going well, recovered and came back well. Could make up a tidy trifecta.

8.Fleurgundy ran a 5L third here on a similar surface and is very fit now. But she has had a few goes now and has been found wanting in the last 100 metres, so it is hard to take the $1.65 FF

9.Curve ran a strong second to On Show At Trentham which is not bad form. But his recent trial saw him lead but was outfinished under a ride 100m out to finish fifth. Heavy track is a query too.

5.Blizzing Away couldn’t finish it off here last start on similar ground.

Race 3

Speed map shows:

Confidence: 2/5

6.Simona trailed up very nicely when leading, kicked well on the turn with an ideal bog track action, and wasn’t pushed out to run second in the slower part of the track. Can lead and Matt Cameron will suit her as she looks like she responds to a vigorous rider, so looks good value here. RP $5, $11 Ff

Dangers:

8.Triple Heat won her trial on a heavy 10 track and battled well on a Dead track on debut. Action says she should handle a bog ok.

7.Greyvee has had her chances in stronger maiden fields and been outfinished. Action says a bog will trouble her. Strikes a weak field and drawn out which are pluses but hard to back with much confidence with the above two realistic chances at $1.80 FF

Race 4

Speed map shows:

Confidence: 2/5 1 and 2 should fight this out

1.Burton on debut showed good early pace trail a good pace and fought well for second in a similar time to the R72 race. Fifth horse has since won. Second up in a stronger $30k race over 1400m at New Plymouth, he dwelt at the start and used petrol to drive through them to trail and battled ok for fifth to runners who had better runs and the third horse has since won well, Billy Mav. Looks well placed here rather than in race 2. RP $2, $2.20 FF

Danger 

3. In The Zone is the main danger 8yo mare who has early speed. Battled on well last start for fifth in the slower inner ground. Fitter third up and her action is ideal for a very heavy track.

2.Blew By You looks like he may struggle over 1400m on a bog track.

Race 5

Speed map shows:

Confidence: 1/5 with a  few chances.

10.Raz bolted in here two back. He was travelling the best of anything all day there 600m out and won easing down. Then last start lost a shoe and was caught wide in the open so forget that run. Back here looks ideal. RP $5, $5.50 FF

Dangers in order:

7.Its A Kinda Magic in career best form and has won four races yet gets in on the minimum with the 2kgs off for a mare and 2kgs for the apprentice, so looks very well placed, so can’t be left out.

3.Hear My Voice is a big strong horse who will get back and as he did here three starts back work into it wider and with his ideal bog track action, just keep coming. Not suited left handed last start. Tongue tie goes on so may had a breathing issue last start.

9.Goodnight Irene won strongly last start over 1400m in the same grade. Best form left handed though.

2.Bullnose won well here when under a ride for virtually the whole race. The tongue tie going on was the difference. Trialled ok recently and the 1400m will suit better.

1.Tipical gets 3kgs off and has been racing well without winning. A chance in an even race.

 

Race 6

Speed map shows:

Confidence: 2/5

4.Touch The Clouds really unwound strongly late last start at her first run over ground for second at Matamata. Three starts back he ran home strongly here on a similar bog track over 1600m looking like he would relish a middle distance. Then next up was caught wide in the open at Te Rapa with the kick back and didn’t like it. He can beat the favourite. RP 3.50, $5 FF

Dangers:

1.Junior is a $1.80 favourite which is too short. He has had his chances and it was a strong third last start against race winners. But I’m not sure about his will to win, especially in a real slog against a horse like Touch The Clouds, who is peaking nicely and has handled this track condition before.

2.Cassio  has had plenty of goes but has to be in trifectas.

9.Shahana ran a good 4th here when outfinished by Touch The Clouds over 1600m. Could sneak a place with the weight advantage.

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!