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Saturday 14 September preview

Good morning,

A day with not a lot of confidence in even fields and little value. Paul C won the $20 multi bet and this is how it will work. $20 win at $4.80 FF  on Karalino in race 1 at Ruakaka on the Money back bet if she runs 2nd, 3rd or 4th. If she wins, it will all go on Catalyst to win on the tote then Arcadia Queen on the tote. If Karalino runs 2nd, 3rd or 4th, the $20 returned will go on the last two on the tote as an all up bet. Apologies- no updates today.

Bet of the Day Ruakaka Race 7 2.Catalyst $1.50 FF ( Quality bet is with the Arcadia Queen multi in race 7 at Sydney ) The value staking plan says 5.1 units at $2.85 returning 14.53 units. That worked out well. 9.4 units net profit.

Value bet of the Day Ruakaka Race 4 5.Effervescent $6 FF

Speed Map Special Awapuni Race 3 3.Richard Of York $3.80 FF

Sneaky of the day Ruakaka Race 1 7.Karalino $4.80 ( Up to $30 money back guarantee on a FF bet – not tote) and $51 to win the 1000 Guineas )

Heads Up can be heard here with the GOAT and I previewing the big Mile race at Awapuni plus much more including your chance to win a $20 multi bet.

The GOAT’s best sports bet is the Roosters giving 8 points start tonight ( starts 9.50 p.m. )  at $1.90 to beat the Rabittohs. Yes won 30-6

The First Call Special is Holy Mongolemperor/Catalyst Multi at $2.40. Karalino is the only horse I can see beating HM, so if you were going to put $100 on that Multi, I’d put $80 on the $2.40 multi and save on Karalino for $20 win as she will likely pay more than the current $4.80 tomorrow to break even. Or you could go $40 on the $2.40 on that multi special and put $60 win on Karalino tomorrow at probably a better price than $4.80 Ff ( $30 of that could be on the Money back Special if she runs 2nd, 3rd or 4th)

Update 12.20 p.m. Friday ( next update 2 p.m. )

Early Saturday preview:

It is a tough day to back many with Good confidence but there are two horses racing in New Zealand and Australia that are clearly the best horses in the race and should get into winning positions. Even if they don’t they should still win.

They are both Quality bets and I recommend taking the multi as there is not a lot of value in them individually. The value staking plan says 5.1 units at $2.85 returning 14.53 units.

Ruakaka

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5 where Karalino looks the value.

1.Holy Mongolemperor  is a very good horse and with an even tempo should win, but on this track, I’ve seen so many hotties that get back, get beaten because of lack of tempo and the type of track it is. I rate him $1.40, so $1.35 no value. The only horse I can see beating him is 7.Karalino $4.80 and should pay more closer to start time with the hype around HM, who ran home in the second fastest last 600m all day of 10.80, just a tad slower than Holy Mongolemperor. Plus she races like she needs 1400m now. She is $4.80 and is the very likely quinella and she is paying $51 in the 1000 Guineas which looks ideal for her.

 

Race 7 4.25 p.m.

Confidence: 4/5

2.Catalyst could not have been more impressive on the eye at Hastings but the times and sectional splits here say it was even more impressive. His time was faster than the R82 race and worked wide early and was only 3 lengths inferior to Melody Belle’s time. He has a beautiful action and has gone on the right way since then. Drawn to land 2nd outer again and from there with an even tempo he is a class above these. RP $1.20, $1.50 Ff

He is currently $4 for the 2000 Guineas and is being aimed at that. The only horse I can see testing him is Holy Mongolemperor but I’m picking he will be aimed at races in Australia, so if Catalyst wins this comfortably as expected, he will come in, so the $4 is worth taking now. Now $2!

Rosehill Meeting 11

Race 7 5.50 p.m.

Confidence: 4/5

6.Arcadia Queen could not have been more impressive in Perth when going from a maiden win to a Group 1 win in just 6 starts. Her speed ratings and sectionals backed them up too. She relaxed well and just showed the turn of foot that Group 1 horses have.  After looking at her trials where she jumped, relaxed as she always does and went to the line just ready to explode, and the extra strength she has now being in the Waller stable with 9 months to mature, she is looking ready to win fresh up over 1300 metres. William Pike, a great judge of a horse thinks she is something special and from the inside draw, she does have the early speed to settle three back inner behind a tempo that should allow her to ease out before the 300m mark and against these, she just looks a class above them. RP $1.40, $1.90

Ruakaka

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5 where Karalino looks the value.

1.Holy Mongolemperor  is a very good horse and with an even tempo should win, but on this track, I’ve seen so many hotties that get back, get beaten because of lack of tempo and the type of track it is. I rate him $1.40, so $1.35 no value. The only horse I can see beating him is 7.Karalino $4.80 and should pay more closer to start time with the hype around HM, who ran home in the second fastest last 600m all day of 10.80, just a tad slower than Holy Mongolemperor. Plus she races like she needs 1400m now. She is $4.80 and is the very likely quinella and she is paying $51 in the 1000 Guineas which looks ideal for her.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

6.Badea  looked good winning here last start. Gets 3kgs off in the same grade and looks the one to beat. RP $3.20, $3.50 FF

Dangers:

9.I See Red  with the light weight and better run, could upset.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5

2.Santa Monica good run in the Tarzino and this is easier. Drawn to get all favours.

Dangers:

5.Hanger will get back and be the main danger.

4.Lucyinrio  will be on the pace and can place from there.

6.Remington  gets down to a good weight and is a nice horse.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5

5.Effervescent  is ready to peak now and gets 2kgs off and should get the ideal run. RP $5

Dangers:

1.Super Gee  goes well here and is very fit now.

 

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

6.Suliman  is ready to win after a strong win and second at Te Rapa and gets in on a winning weight. Not a lot of on pace runners so he can go forward and get the right run. Looks the one to beat. RP $4.50, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Kaharau  won really well here last start and should get a good run.

9.Amazing Az had his chance last start- would need to improve to beat the above two and with the Blinkers going on he could find enough.

1.Zacada is giving these some good weight but if they go hard enough, he will be charging at these late.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

11.Supreme Heights  is relishing her racing and just keeps giving regardless of what run she gets. The one to beat again. RP $4, $4.60 FF

Dangers:

7.Pop Star Princess if she gets a softish lead, could do it.

9.Bruegel  should get a good run and the light weight helps.

2.William Wallace is racing very well and id they go hard, will be hard to keep out.

Race 7 4.25 p.m.

Confidence: 4/5

2.Catalyst could not have been more impressive on the eye at Hastings but the times and sectional splits here say it was even more impressive. His time was faster than the R82 race and worked wide early and was only 3 lengths inferior to Melody Belle’s time. He has a beautiful action and has gone on the right way since then. Drawn to land 2nd outer again and from there with an even tempo he is a class above these. RP $1.20, $1.50 Ff

He is currently $4 for the 2000 Guineas and is being aimed at that. The only horse I can see testing him is Holy Mongolemperor but I’m picking he will be aimed at races in Australia, so if Catalyst wins this comfortably as expected, he will come in, so the $4 is worth taking now.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

5.One Kotukustreet  freshened up and can get over comfortably from the wide draw and with the 3kgs off, be the one to beat. RP $4, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

8.Choctoc  nice mare ready to fresh up and is the main danger.

7.Scottish Star  nice horse and with a good run, is right in this.

Awapuni- a tough day here with not a lot of value on a heavy track.

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

2.My Father’s Gun two very good placings before being checked at Hastings. RP $5

Dangers:

1.Rock With Choux rates strongly and is the main danger.

5.Bruno Kelly rates on top and Lisa Allpress rides.

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5

1.Miss Lizzie  just keeps on racing well and gets 4kgs off again. If the rail is a good, she could win it on the turn. RP $4

Dangers:

5.Deerfield is a good horse and looks the main danger.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

3.Richard Of Yorke also gets 4kgs off and is fitter. He’ll be hard to run down. RP $3.30, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

6.Hi I’m Nikita won easily last start and gets in on a nice weight.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

4.Mizzena  had to get going early last start and stuck on gamely for second. Up to 2100m suits and peaking. RP $4, $6.50 FF

Dangers:

8.Tipperary Mary  with Lisa Allpress up does look the main danger.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

8.Tonadillas really looked good winning fresh up and looks ready to keep on winning. RP $4, $6 FF

Dangers:

9.Meteoric Lass gets 4kgs off and has to be the main danger.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

13.Bae Corp  is very fit and gets in on a winning weight which is a good combination on a tough surface. RP $4.50

Dangers:

6.Floral Art  looks a progressive horse and will be right in this.

Race 7

Confidence: 1/5 with a few chances

4.Dez won the Winter Cup really well over 1600m then was a bit flat giving 6kgs to the others 7 days later. He won a recent Hastings jumpout very well. Chris Johnson suits him and he will get every chance. RP $4.50, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

2.Art Deco was a close second in this last year and may be in the right barrier out wide by this time of day, especially if they are coming wider to win. Racing in career best form.

5.Rosewood  goes well here and was just beaten by Dez in the Winter Cup and meets him better off in the weights.

10.Herengawe  just keeps giving his best and the light weight from the wide draw could be the difference.

 

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

11.Beckidboo  won well last start and gets in on a nice weight. Drawn to stay away from the inside if that is off. RP $5, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

12.Mohaka on a heavy track will be harder to beat.

5.Whatsup is good enough to win if right.

8.Kirkland  won well last week and gets 3kgs off.

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!