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Sunday Special below

Good morning,

I’ve been through the Manukau dog fields and Rotorua fields and there is only one horse that is well placed to win at value detailed below and he is a Quality bet.

Rotorua

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5 missed after racing too keenly. 15.6 units outlaid for the week with 25 units returned and a 9.4 unit profit.

3.Handsome Blue won very well last start at New Plymouth when he sat third outer but raced a bit keenly as he wanted to get out and lead, so rather than fight him the rider allowed him to do that and he put the pressure on 800 metres out. He was taken on but showed good fight to draw away late again. No time was taken but it was 2.23.69. Comparing the splits to the better class R65 race over 1800m ( 200m less ) later in the day, showed that he ran to the 800m mark 5 lengths quicker than them so he had every right to get run over, but kept finding. The speed rating also shows that his time was superior to the R65 race over 1800m. The start before over hurdles, he led over 2760 at Ellerslie and battled well when headed on the turn. Earlier in the campaign, he covered the most ground of any runner wide out at Wanganui, and was run down for second over 2040m. That form was on heavy 11 tracks, but the slow 9 track should suit ideally as his action and breeding suggests he will also. The speed maps shows he will be able to lead without any pressure, but you just never know in Amateur riders race, but he is best in front where he seems to enjoy it. From there capable rider, Scotty McNab, can pick the path to the right part of the straight by this time of day, and he will take some running down against runners that have been going round for a while or lack race fitness. Trainer Jo Rathbone told us, ” he has come through that really well. We’ve had him since Christmas and he had a few mental issues which he is on top of now, so we expect him to go very well. He’s best being allowed to do his thing rather than being retrained so he will be in the front or tracking Sir Ritchie.”  RP $3.50, $7.00 FF 4 units with the Value Staking Plan

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!